Marie Wendt Ferris State University November 3 2010 Establish tasks to be completed Organize the order Determine tasks which are dependent on others Estimate the length of the project May include length of various steps of the project ID: 750733
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Slide1
Project Estimation“ Project Abode”
Marie Wendt
Ferris State University
November 3, 2010Slide2
Establish tasks to be completedOrganize the orderDetermine tasks which are dependent on others
Estimate the length of the project
May include length of various steps of the projectProficient schedulingBreak project work into tasksDepending on timeframe Incorporate software utilization Project Management Office Determine resources
Important to Plan
(
PMBOK Guide
, 2008)Slide3
Gather expert opinionResearch best practice
Gather/appoint team
Determine tasks neededGather baseline stats of current systemTiming, information points, ease of use, consistencyBenchmarking Adopt ideas, measure performance, avoid roadblocks, compare best practiceEstimating Project Tasks
(
PMBOK Guide
, 2008)Slide4
Seek expert opinionReview skill mix
Assess availability/reliability of team members
Determine constraintsEstimating Project Duration
(PMBOK Guide, 2008)Slide5
Review of Estimation Methods…Slide6
Used to detail the various stepsPath of the steps sequenced through the project
Single estimate for each task of project
Determines time needed to finishCritical Path Method(Goldratt, 1997)
(Acq Notes, n.d.)Slide7
List out steps of each phase listed in project charter. Determine which steps can happen simultaneously
For example: Plumbing and electrical can be installed simultaneously. However, one may take longer than the other.
Establish how each task inter relates and plot out to determine the overall length of building the houseCritical Path Example
(Goldratt, 1997)Slide8
Statistical ruleSolving 20% of most important problems
Resolves to attain 80% rewards
Usually only beneficial with independent variablesPareto Principal
(Goldratt, 1997)(PMBOK Guide
, 2008
)Slide9
Not exceptionally helpful with this project since many variables are dependent on another
Pareto Principal ExampleSlide10
Three point estimateEstimate
Worst case scenario,
Most likely timeline Best case scenarioCalculate PERT Worst + 4 X most + best ÷ 6Standard DeviationWorst – best ÷ 6Variance Standard deviation squaredPERT +/- standard deviation
PERT Application
Program Evaluation & Review Technique
(
PMBOK Guide
, 2008)Slide11
PERT Estimate Formula12 months + 4 = 16 months X 6= 96 + 2= 98 ÷ 6 = 16.3333
Standard
12 – 6 = 6 ÷ 6 = 1Variance1 ² = 1Estimate 16.33 +/- 1 MonthsPERT ExampleSlide12
SoftwareComputerized mathematical technique
Uses multiple probability functions
Calculated multiple timesApplies a “what if” technique to each stage of projectAssistsFeasibility of planned timeline in unplanned situationsPreparation for unexpected situationsPossibly a more simplified processUtilizing computerized software
Monte Carlo Simulation
(
PMBOK Guide
, 2008) Slide13
Utilize excel program to assist with determining the estimated
Length of the house project
Cost of the house projectCreate baseline “picture” before the start of the buildMonte Carlo ExampleSlide14
Clarification of project scopeIntuitive “Judgmental” method
Assists to reduce preconceived notion
Send project task to subject matter expertsGather consensusAnonymousSolicit ideasRepeat process as necessarySummarize responses
Delphi Technique
(
PMBOK Guide
, 2008)Slide15
Use this model to question various project managers, consultants and builders
Past experiences working with subcontractors
ReliabilityQualityEthic
Learn best practiceMaterial Availability
Quality
Delphi Method
(Trendnovation Southeast, n.d.)Slide16
I chose this method because it closely relates to the healthcare profession, which I am comfortable and familiar with. It is imperative for healthcare organizations to share best practices and develop processes that are research driven and publically acknowledged as best practice. By gaining various expert opinions the project manager is able to understand from different viewpoints what is the best path for the project.
It is also essential for the company to heed advice from similar types of organizations.
For this project, understanding the dynamics of local subcontractors will be crucial. Input regarding the reliability of each can significantly impact the home building project timeline.
Method ChosenDelphi Technique
(Keeney & McKenna, 2011)Slide17
ParticipantsProject Manager
Sponsor
Project RequestorsLead BuilderSub BuilderSub ContractorsConsultant It is important to include all of these participants from the beginning project planning through the conclusion of the project
Who is InvolvedSlide18
Roadmaps tasks to be completedProject Charter
Constraint factors
Government standards, weather, acts of nature, market availability of materials, and contractor availabilityProject Schedule
(PMBOK Guide, 2008)Slide19
Workload must be evenhandedMust review performers abilities in skill, speed, quality and ethics
Resource Quality
(PMBOK Guide
, 2008)Slide20
Require systematic approachEach participant follows template created for handoff
Must be verbal as well as written for tracking purposes
Include safety concernsInclude variances, problem solving, & challengesHandoffsSlide21
Safety bufferTime allotted to deal with interruptions
Each step of the project vs. as a whole
It is usually easier to manage adding safety to the entire project versus adding it in for the various stagesAdding Safety
((Goldratt, 1997)PMBOK Guide
, 2008)Slide22
Types Critical Chain
50% Rule
Long Tail20% at each stepWhat if ScenarioI would use the 50% Rule Simple and effectiveAllows time for success with unknown variable
Safety Methods
(Goldratt, 1997)
(
PMBOK Guide
, 2008)Slide23
Begin with baseline scope planCreate plan to manage process
Develop formal plan for change requests
Develop process for dealing with deviationsIncorporate process for monitoring results and reporting methodsRecord and communicate to stakeholdersSet up approval methodsManaging Scope Creep
(
PMBOK Guide
, 2008)Slide24
Compresses the schedule Does not compromise the scope
Managing timeline and financial tradeoffs
ExamplesAdditional resourcesOutside costsI.e.: Next day deliveryMust balance out with other areas of projectMay result in additional cost or project lengthTry to avoid
Crashing
(
PMBOK Guide
, 2008)Slide25
Historical reviewWeigh against benchmarks
Compare baseline to outcomes
Include variancesLessons learnedPost Project ReviewSlide26
A guide to the project management body of knowledge (PMBOK Guide) (4th ed.). (2008). Atlanta, GA: Project Management Institute.
Acq Notes. (n.d.). Retrieved from: http://www.acqnotes.com/Tasks/Critical%20Path%20Critical%20Path%20Method.html
Goldratt, E. M. (1997). Critical Chain. Great Barrington, MA: The North River Press.Keeney, S., & McKenna, H. (2011). The delphi technique in nursing and health research. 8SQ, UK: Whiley & Sons, Inc.
Trendnovation Southeast. (n.d.). http://trendsoutheast.org/2011/all-issues/issue-02/delphi-method/
References