Project Estimation “ Project Abode”
Project Estimation “ Project Abode”

Project Estimation “ Project Abode” - PowerPoint Presentation

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Project Estimation “ Project Abode” - PPT Presentation

Marie Wendt Ferris State University November 3 2010 Establish tasks to be completed Organize the order Determine tasks which are dependent on others Estimate the length of the project May include length of various steps of the project ID: 750733

guide project pmbok 2008 project guide 2008 pmbok 1997 goldratt method technique tasks amp safety determine process baseline include




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Project Estimation“ Project Abode”

Marie Wendt

Ferris State University

November 3, 2010Slide2

Establish tasks to be completedOrganize the orderDetermine tasks which are dependent on others

Estimate the length of the project

May include length of various steps of the projectProficient schedulingBreak project work into tasksDepending on timeframe Incorporate software utilization Project Management Office Determine resources

Important to Plan



, 2008)Slide3

Gather expert opinionResearch best practice

Gather/appoint team

Determine tasks neededGather baseline stats of current systemTiming, information points, ease of use, consistencyBenchmarking Adopt ideas, measure performance, avoid roadblocks, compare best practiceEstimating Project Tasks



, 2008)Slide4

Seek expert opinionReview skill mix

Assess availability/reliability of team members

Determine constraintsEstimating Project Duration

(PMBOK Guide, 2008)Slide5

Review of Estimation Methods…Slide6

Used to detail the various stepsPath of the steps sequenced through the project

Single estimate for each task of project

Determines time needed to finishCritical Path Method(Goldratt, 1997)

(Acq Notes, n.d.)Slide7

List out steps of each phase listed in project charter. Determine which steps can happen simultaneously

For example: Plumbing and electrical can be installed simultaneously. However, one may take longer than the other.

Establish how each task inter relates and plot out to determine the overall length of building the houseCritical Path Example

(Goldratt, 1997)Slide8

Statistical ruleSolving 20% of most important problems

Resolves to attain 80% rewards

Usually only beneficial with independent variablesPareto Principal

(Goldratt, 1997)(PMBOK Guide

, 2008


Not exceptionally helpful with this project since many variables are dependent on another

Pareto Principal ExampleSlide10

Three point estimateEstimate

Worst case scenario,

Most likely timeline Best case scenarioCalculate PERT Worst + 4 X most + best ÷ 6Standard DeviationWorst – best ÷ 6Variance Standard deviation squaredPERT +/- standard deviation

PERT Application

Program Evaluation & Review Technique



, 2008)Slide11

PERT Estimate Formula12 months + 4 = 16 months X 6= 96 + 2= 98 ÷ 6 = 16.3333


12 – 6 = 6 ÷ 6 = 1Variance1 ² = 1Estimate 16.33 +/- 1 MonthsPERT ExampleSlide12

SoftwareComputerized mathematical technique

Uses multiple probability functions

Calculated multiple timesApplies a “what if” technique to each stage of projectAssistsFeasibility of planned timeline in unplanned situationsPreparation for unexpected situationsPossibly a more simplified processUtilizing computerized software

Monte Carlo Simulation



, 2008) Slide13

Utilize excel program to assist with determining the estimated

Length of the house project

Cost of the house projectCreate baseline “picture” before the start of the buildMonte Carlo ExampleSlide14

Clarification of project scopeIntuitive “Judgmental” method

Assists to reduce preconceived notion

Send project task to subject matter expertsGather consensusAnonymousSolicit ideasRepeat process as necessarySummarize responses

Delphi Technique



, 2008)Slide15

Use this model to question various project managers, consultants and builders

Past experiences working with subcontractors


Learn best practiceMaterial Availability


Delphi Method

(Trendnovation Southeast, n.d.)Slide16

I chose this method because it closely relates to the healthcare profession, which I am comfortable and familiar with. It is imperative for healthcare organizations to share best practices and develop processes that are research driven and publically acknowledged as best practice. By gaining various expert opinions the project manager is able to understand from different viewpoints what is the best path for the project.

It is also essential for the company to heed advice from similar types of organizations.

For this project, understanding the dynamics of local subcontractors will be crucial. Input regarding the reliability of each can significantly impact the home building project timeline.

Method ChosenDelphi Technique

(Keeney & McKenna, 2011)Slide17

ParticipantsProject Manager


Project RequestorsLead BuilderSub BuilderSub ContractorsConsultant It is important to include all of these participants from the beginning project planning through the conclusion of the project

Who is InvolvedSlide18

Roadmaps tasks to be completedProject Charter

Constraint factors

Government standards, weather, acts of nature, market availability of materials, and contractor availabilityProject Schedule

(PMBOK Guide, 2008)Slide19

Workload must be evenhandedMust review performers abilities in skill, speed, quality and ethics

Resource Quality

(PMBOK Guide

, 2008)Slide20

Require systematic approachEach participant follows template created for handoff

Must be verbal as well as written for tracking purposes

Include safety concernsInclude variances, problem solving, & challengesHandoffsSlide21

Safety bufferTime allotted to deal with interruptions

Each step of the project vs. as a whole

It is usually easier to manage adding safety to the entire project versus adding it in for the various stagesAdding Safety

((Goldratt, 1997)PMBOK Guide

, 2008)Slide22

Types Critical Chain

50% Rule

Long Tail20% at each stepWhat if ScenarioI would use the 50% Rule Simple and effectiveAllows time for success with unknown variable

Safety Methods

(Goldratt, 1997)



, 2008)Slide23

Begin with baseline scope planCreate plan to manage process

Develop formal plan for change requests

Develop process for dealing with deviationsIncorporate process for monitoring results and reporting methodsRecord and communicate to stakeholdersSet up approval methodsManaging Scope Creep



, 2008)Slide24

Compresses the schedule Does not compromise the scope

Managing timeline and financial tradeoffs

ExamplesAdditional resourcesOutside costsI.e.: Next day deliveryMust balance out with other areas of projectMay result in additional cost or project lengthTry to avoid




, 2008)Slide25

Historical reviewWeigh against benchmarks

Compare baseline to outcomes

Include variancesLessons learnedPost Project ReviewSlide26

A guide to the project management body of knowledge (PMBOK Guide) (4th ed.). (2008). Atlanta, GA: Project Management Institute.

Acq Notes. (n.d.). Retrieved from: http://www.acqnotes.com/Tasks/Critical%20Path%20Critical%20Path%20Method.html

Goldratt, E. M. (1997). Critical Chain. Great Barrington, MA: The North River Press.Keeney, S., & McKenna, H. (2011). The delphi technique in nursing and health research. 8SQ, UK: Whiley & Sons, Inc.

Trendnovation Southeast. (n.d.). http://trendsoutheast.org/2011/all-issues/issue-02/delphi-method/