PPT-Session 9b Decision Models -- Prof. Juran

2 Overview Finance Simulation Models Securities Pricing BlackScholes Electricity Option Miscellaneous Monte Carlo vs Latin Hypercube Review of Binomial Decision Models Prof Juran. Operations -- Prof. Juran. 2. Overview. Basic definitions and metrics. Examples of some theoretical models. Operations -- Prof. Juran. 3. Basic Queueing Theory. A set of mathematical tools for the analysis of probabilistic systems of customers and servers. . Decision Models -- Prof. Juran. 2. Overview. Monte Carlo Simulation. Basic concepts and history. Excel Tricks. RAND(), IF, Boolean. Crystal Ball. Probability Distributions . Normal, Gamma, Uniform, Triangular. Decision Models -- Prof. Juran. 2. Overview. Finance Simulation Models. Forecasting. Retirement Planning. Butterfly Strategy. Risk Management. Introduction to . VaR. Currency Risk. Using . Historical Data in Simulations. Decision Models -- Prof. Juran. 2. Overview. Multiple Objective Optimization. Two Dimensions. More than Two Dimensions. Finance and HR Examples. Efficient Frontier. Pre-emptive Goal Programming. Intro to Decision Analysis. Applied Regression -- Prof. Juran. 2. Outline for Session 4. Summary Measures for the Full Model . Top Section of the Output. Interval Estimation . More Multiple Regression. Movers. Nonlinear Regression. Decision Models -- Prof. Juran. 2. Overview. Sensitivity Analysis. Goal Seek and Data Table. Marketing and Finance examples. Call Center LP. More Sensitivity Analysis. SolverTable. Decision Models -- Prof. Juran. Operations Management -- Prof. Juran. 2. Outline. Optimization Extensions . Multiperiod Models. Operations Planning: Sailboats. Ne. twork Flow Models . Transportation Model: Beer Distribution. Assignment Model: Contract Bidding. Decision Models -- Prof. Juran. 2. Overview. Portfolio Optimization. Parametric Approach. Array Functions. Scenario Approach. Put Options. Shorting. Decision Models -- Prof. Juran. 3. 4 Basic Matrix Operations. Decision Models -- Prof. Juran. 2. Overview. Evolutionary Solver. (Genetic Algorithm). Advertising Example. Product Design Example. Conjoint Analysis. Decision Models -- Prof. Juran. 3. Nonlinear Problems. 2. Overview. Basic definitions and metrics. Examples of some theoretical models. Operations -- Prof. Juran. 3. Basic Queueing Theory. A set of mathematical tools for the analysis of probabilistic systems of customers and servers. . 2. Overview. Sensitivity Analysis. Goal Seek and Data Table. Marketing and Finance examples. Call Center LP. More Sensitivity Analysis. SolverTable. Decision Models -- Prof. Juran. 3. Sensitivity Analysis. 2. Overview. Monte Carlo Simulation. Basic concepts and history. Excel Tricks. RAND(), IF, Boolean. Crystal Ball. Probability Distributions . Normal, Gamma, Uniform, Triangular. Assumption and Forecast cells. Statin Choice Decision Aid Share-Decision Making SCIP Shared Decision Making Shared Decision Making Glasziou and Haynes ACP JC 2005 Promote a process where patients and clinicians make a choice together. 1. ERiMA. : . Envisioning Risk Models for Assessment of AI-based applications.. 2. Dr Huma Samin. 1. Post Doctoral Research Associate Computer Science. Durham University, UK. huma.samin@durham.ac.uk.