Convince or Persuade? - PDF document

Convince or Persuade? convince tr.v. , - vinced, - vinc·ing, - vinc·es. 1. To bring by the use of argument or evidence to firm belief or a course of action. See synonyms at persuade . 2. Obsolete . To prove to be wrong or guilty. 3. Obsolete . To conquer; overpower. [Latin convincere , to prove wrong : com - , intensive pref.; see com - + vincere, to conquer.] USAGE NOTE According to a traditional rule, one persuades someone to act but convinces someone of the truth of a statement or proposition: By convincing me that no good could come of staying, he persuaded me to leave. If the distinction is accepted, then convince should not be used with an infinitive: He persuaded (not convinced ) me to go. … it seems likely that advocates of the traditional rule governing persuade and convince will find fewer and fewer allies in their camp from answers.com March 27, 2010 Convince or Persuade? • I prefer to make the almost lost distinction • However, I believe people convince themselves • As a decision analyst, my job is to provide them with an argument that will allow them to convince themselves • It is not my job to persuade them to act once they are convinced • Decision analysts do not make decisions; they help those who do UNCERTAINTY ACTIONS FUTURE PREFERENCES Decisions Shape the Future The Essence of Decision What You Can Do What You Know What You Want The Decision Maker Frame Logic Model Problem Solution Answer ??? Analysis or Reductionism? The map is not the territory. Represent Interpret Solve Lessons • All models are wrong, some are useful • No one has ever decided to do something because of an equation or a number • Everyone will have a conversation about a decision, perhaps only with themselves • Decision analysis is devoted to improving the quality of that conversation Our Methods • Framing – Working on the right problem • Dealing with uncertainty – Surfing on the sea of uncertainty, rather than drowning in it – Valuing clairvoyance • Influence diagrams • These diagrams are the most useful ways to communicate with both people and computers – Decision diagrams – Relevance diagrams – Value diagrams • Current research The Simplest Decision Diagram The Simplest non - Trivial Decision Diagram Uncertainty Value Decision Dual Sport Motorcycle Design Decision Diagram Design Engine Size Frame Design Elec Start Power Weight Road Performance Off - Road Performance Ground Clearance Seat Height Capacity For Two Market Share Price Mfg Cost Market Size Sales Revenue Profit Competitive Price/Performance Development Decision Diagram Target Market Segment Degree of Re - Use NPV Key Purchase Drivers | Market Segment Sales Volume Materia l Cost Averag e Price Competito r Pricing Competito r Offerings Investme nt Cost Actual SOP Market Researc h Architecture (new/existing) SOP Target Date Plant Candidate(s) Styling Requirements Performance Requirements Financial Targets Clinic Result s Vehicle Dev. Duration “Product Definition” Plant Selection Production Capacity Pricing Strategy Design Revisions Actual Product Clinic Preparation Executiv e Input Union Demand s Economic Environmen t Mfg. TP Safety/ Quality Issues Recall Likelihoo d Law Suits CLARITY OF THOUGHT CLARITY OF ACTION