Harnessing long term signals for greater mitigation action: - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

Harnessing long term signals for greater mitigation action: 2015 Agreement & the long term goal

Farhana Yamin, Founder & CEO, Track 0

OECD, Climate Change Expert Group(CCXG) Global Forum, 17 – 18

th

March 2015, Slide2

What is the

Long-term Goal (LTG)?

The science of

20 C and zero emissionsWho supports the LTG in the “real economy”BusinessCitiesCivil SocietyWho supports the LTG in Paris negotiatingTextual proposals on the table

OVERVIEWSlide3

“I am making a strong call for governments to put us on a pathway to achieve

zero net emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels in the second half of this century. Unlike the financial crisis, we do not have a ‘climate bailout’ option up our sleeve.”

Angel

Gurria, SG OECD October 2013Slide4

Long term goal science: 2

0C = 0 emissions

IPCC AR5

: only one scenario, RCP 2.6, offers a 66% (likely) chance of staying within 2ºC: All GHGs are 40 - 70% reductions lower by 2050 (using 2010 baseline) All GHG emissions are zero by 2100C02 emissions are net zero by 2075 and net negative thereafter

Climate Action Tracker/

Ecofys

find

an 85%

(high) chance of staying below 2ºC if:All GHGs need to be net zero by 2060-2080 C02 emissions are net zero earlier between 2045-2065Net negative CO2 emissions after 2065Conclusion: we need profound changes to shift emissions from fossil fuels and industry, starting today!

Source: New Climate Institute briefing ‘Net Phase out of global GHG emissions’, 11

th

Feb 2015Slide5

Timeframe for achieving the LTG

Source: WRI & ACT 2015, December 2014 Working PaperSlide6

Why do we need a LTG in Paris Agreement?

A unifying international goal to

crystallise

and guide regional and national actionCreate a backbone of scientific integrity for Paris given a bottom up process of NDCs (expected to be 5-10years) might fall short of science if each country left to come up with their own targetsWe need a more practical goal than 2ºC – one that anyone can understand AND apply at any level (country, city, community, business, sectoral) so create a common direction of travel by all: zero emissions is that goalSlide7

Why does A

LonG term

Direction

of travel matter?Slide8

82% of coal deposits

,

half

of all known gas reserves and a third of the world’s oil would need to stay underground; including 80% of potential shale gas reserves in U.S., Africa and the Middle East (2014 UCL Study)

Carbon Tracker estimates that annual capital expenditures amounting to nearly $700 billion flow to projects that could end up abandoned.

Goldman Sachs

estimate almost

$1 trillion in investments

in future oil projects are

at risk.The Bank of England is analysing the risk of stranded assets. Its key message so far is that banks must take a central role in predicting potential stranded assets as they face a direct economic threat in the key transitional phase of the next 15 years.

“

...climate risk is becoming synonymous with reputation risk,

”

Luisa

Florez

, senior responsible investment analyst at

Axa

Investment

, managing over €600bn in assets.

Stranded Assets

Avoiding Stranded AssetsSlide9

BusinessSlide10

159 signatories

Net zero by 2100

Signatories include:

Adidas, HP, Heathrow, Shell & UnileverSlide11

Cities

228 cities globally, representing 436 million people, have set GHG reduction goals and targets

. The cumulative savings of these targets, by 2050, equals the current annual emissions of China and India combined.

The following cities committed to GHG reductions of between 80-100% by 2050: Yokohama, Washington DC, Vasteras, Vancouver, Stockholm, Seattle, San Francisco, Portland, Oslo, NYC, London, Boulder, Boston, Berlin and AntwerpThe Carbon Neutral Cities Alliance connects up cities working for “aggressive long term carbon reduction goals”; including Berlin, Boston, Copenhagen, London, Melbourne, New York, Oslo, San Francisco, Seattle, Stockholm, Vancouver, Washington DC, Yokohama (Japan).C40 network & The Compact of Mayors are also working to commit over 75 megacities to GHG emission reduction targets.Slide12

Civil Society

Divestment Movement

: Rockefeller Brothers Fund, Norwegian Oil Wealth Fund, Universities, faith groups, foundations and associations.

Modelling and net zero scenarios already happening all over the worldClimate Action Network (>900 NGO members) endorse 2050 goal to “phase in Renewable Energy, phase out Fossil Fuels”.The Elders support Net Zero by 2050.Community initiatives such as ‘Towards Zero Carbon Bute’ and ‘Carbon Neutral Flensburg’ are working on a local level to decarbonise too.Slide13

WHO SUPPORTS THE

LONG TERM

GOAL FOR

NET ZERO IN PARIS PROCESS?Slide14

What is the total number of countries

supporting the LTG?

Representatives of

nearly 120 countries have expressed support for inclusion of the LTG in the Paris agreement including:Nauru, on behalf of 44 members of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) at ADP meetings in Lima, COP 20Nepal, on behalf of 48 Least Developed Countries at COP 20, LimaThe EU on behalf of 27 countries at the UNFCCC ADP in GenevaNorway, Switzerland, Mexico, South Africa, Chile, Costa Rica and Colombia have expressed support for LTG in the ADP and/or through their Heads of States at UN Secretary General’s Climate Summit, Sept 2014“Today we have an obligation to succeed. The 2015 Paris conference must enable us to achieve a global agreement, an ambitious agreement that can ensure we reach what’s called carbon neutrality – that is, greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the planet’s absorption capabilities.”

President Hollande

addressing the UN

Climate

Summit, September 2015Slide15

Individual Countries who have supported inclusion

of the LTG in the Paris 2015 Treaty

Country

Group1BarbadosAOSIS2.BelgiumEU3.BhutanLDCs

4.Chile

AILAC

5.

Colombia

AILAC

6.Costa RicaAILAC7.DenmarkEU8.EthiopiaLDCs/Africa9FinlandEU10.France

EU

11.

Gambia

LDC/Africa

12.

Georgia

CACAM

13.

Germany

EU

14.

Grenada

AOSIS

15.

Iceland

Umbrella

16.

Ireland

EU

Country

Group

17

Malawi

LDCs/Africa

19.

Marshall Islands

AOSIS

20

Mexico

Environmental

Integrity Group

21.

Monaco

Environmental

Integrity Group

22.

Nauru

AOSIS

23.

Nepal

LDC/Africa

24.

Netherlands

EU

25.

New

Zealand

Umbrella

26.

Norway

Umbrella

27.

Samoa

AOSIS

28.

South Africa

Africa

29.

Sweden

EU

30.

Switzerland

Environmental

Integrity Group

31.

Trinidad & Tobago

AOSIS

32.

Uganda

LDCs/Africa

33.

United Kingdom

EUSlide16

Widespread Support From Negotiating Groups

AOSIS (44)

AFRICAN GROUP (52)Cook IslandsNauru *NiuePalauFijiGuyanaPapua New Guinea *SurinameBahamasBarbados *Grenada *JamaicaMarshall Islands *SingaporeSaint KitsSaint LuciaTonga

BelizeDominicaMaldives (Chair)CubaCote d’IvoireEgyptMoroccoNamibiaSouth Africa *

Swaziland

Tunisia

Zimbabwe

Cameroon

CongoGhanaKenyaNigeriaAlgeriaLibyaBangladeshAfghanistanBhutan *CambodiaLao P.D.R.MyanmarNepal *YemenKiribatiTuvaluSolomon IslandsHaitiTimor-LesteVanuatuGuinea-BissauComorosSao Tome & PrincipeCape VerdeMauritiusSeychellesTogoBurkina FasoMauritaniaMozambiqueEquatorial GuineaRwandaSenegalSomaliaSudanSouth SudanTanzaniaMalawi *ZambiaCentral African RepublicD.R. CongoNigerLesothoLiberiaMadagascarSierra LeoneUganda *

Angola (Chair)

Benin

Mali

Burundi

Chad

Djibouti

Eritrea

Ethiopia*

Gambia

Guinea

Trinidad and Tobago *

Antigua and Barbuda

Saint Vincent & the Grenadines

Federated States of MicronesiaSamoa *ObserversU.S. Virgin IslandsNetherlands AntillesAmerican SamoaGuamPuerto RicoLDCs (48)

Dominican Republic ✚Colombia *Costa Rica *Chile *PeruGuatemalaPanama

AILAC (6)

KEY

* Countries who have supported inclusion of a long term goal

AOSIS + LDCs = 83 countries, are both

+ Not a full member of AILAC, associates with positionsSlide17

Widespread Support From Negotiating Groups

Umbrella (9)

Australia

CanadaIceland *JapanNew Zealand *Norway *RussiaUkraineUnited StatesEU Countries (27)Austria Belgium *BulgariaCzech RepublicCyprus Denmark *EstoniaPolandFrance *

Germany *GreeceHungaryIreland *Italy LatviaNetherlands *

Portugal

Romania

Slovakia

Slovenia

SpainSweden *United Kingdom *Environmental Integrity Group (5)Mexico *Switzerland *LichtensteinSouth KoreaMonaco *CACAM (7)AlbaniaArmeniaGeorgia *KazakhstanRepublic of MoldovaTurkmenistanUzbekistan*Countries supportive of inclusion of a long term goal in ParisFinland *LithuaniaLuxemburgMaltaEstoniaSlide18

Least Developed Countries (LDC) Group

“Mr. President…. the LDCs are still optimistic on achieving a climate neutral future before the end of the Century.

Our

Group understands that, in our journey of combating the climate crisis and reaching a climate neutral world, we must make the right choices here in Lima and next year in Paris. We have a historical opportunity to make things right through the new Paris Protocol.”Statement delivered by Dr. Govinder Raj Pokhrel, Vice Chair, National Planning Commission, Nepal on behalf of 48 countries of LDC Group Opening of the High Level Segment COP-20/CMP-10Lima, Peru, 9 December 2014

“Total emissions need to reach zero between 2060 and 2080. This means we need urgent actions by all countries to reduce emissions.” Statement made by Uganda on behalf of LDCs, ADP Ministerial, June 2014Slide19

Alliance Of Small Island States (AOSIS)

“We find it very important and worthwhile that paragraph 13 (a) refers to the need for long-term decarbonisation pathways. These are critical for getting on track towards our agreed long term goal. More specifically…We are very keen and happy to see the reference to net zero emissions and/or full decarbonisation by 2050, which the latest science is telling us is necessary to achieve our long-term goal.”

Statement delivered by Nauru, on behalf of the 44 members of the Alliance of Small Island States, at the Lima ADP negotiations,

3 November 2014Slide20

Countries with renewable targets

1. Ambitious targets or shares of

renewables >

/ = 50% at any timeGuatemalaGuyana Honduras Iceland Israel Italy Kenya  Latvia Madagascar Malawi Mozambique

 Nauru New Zealand

 Nicaragua

 Niue

 Norway

 Peru

 Austria

 Cameroon

 Cape Verde

 Colombia

 Cook Islands

 Costa Rica

 Democratic Republic of the Congo

 Denmark

 Djibouti

 Dominica

 El Salvador

 Eritrea

 Estonia

 Fiji

 Finland Gabon Germany 

Portugal

Rwanda

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Solomon

Islands

Somalia

South

Sudan

Spain

Sudan

Sweden

Switzerland

Tanzania

Tonga

Tuvalu

Uganda

Uruguay

Vanuatu

ZambiaSlide21

Palau

 Panama Philippines Poland Republic of the Congo Romania Saint Lucia Samoa

 Senegal Serbia

 Slovakia

 Slovenia

 South Korea

 Suriname

 Thailand Togo Turkey Ukraine United Kingdom Venezuela Vietnam

Albania

 Algeria

 Argentina

 Azerbaijan

 Belgium

 Bosnia and Herzegovina

 Botswana

 Brazil

 Bulgaria

 Burundi

 Chile

 China

 Côte d'Ivoire

 Croatia

 Cyprus

 Czech Republic

 Ecuador

 Egypt

France

 Greece

 Grenada

Hungary

 India

 Indonesia

 Ireland

 Jamaica

 Jordan

 Laos

 Lebanon

 Libya

 Lithuania

 Luxembourg

 Macedonia

 Mali

 Malta

 Mauritania

 Mauritius

 Moldova

 Mongolia

 Montenegro

Netherlands

Niger

Countries with renewables targets

2. Any other renewables targetSlide22

Governments

6 Carbon

Neutral

Countries

196 countries supporting 2ºC

implying phase out by 2100

152 countries supporting 1.5ºC

Implying 2050 phase out

93 Countries with ambitious

renewable targets support phase in44 Countries withIndividual LTG50 Annex 1 Parties

collective offer 50% by 2050

AIP doing 80%

Source: Track 0Slide23

The Role of Paris Slide24

ADP

workstream 1 (post 2020)

Possible outcomes for Paris for LTG

Preamble reference e.g. “Parties agree the need to phase out GHGs to achieve carbon neutrality by mid-century as demanded by science”LBA body – LTG in effect giving operative guidance on re Article 2 UNFCCC and what timetable for phase out in needed as IPCC AR5 as subsequently updatedLBA annex incentivises and allows listing of both long & short term commitments combinations put forward by countries . Net Zero does not REPLACE INDCs and short term ambitionLBA body – ratchet mechanism setting out automatic adjustment to LTG or soft guidance for Parties to revise future contribution to be compatible/into account LTGCOP decision setting out LTG as above, plus giving guidance to Parties to implement current and future contribution to be compatible with LTGSlide25

ADP

workstream 2 (pre 2020)

Workstream

2: COP programme of action on actions & initiatives aiming at Net Zero (especially cities, subnational governments and others). This programme would bring integrated actions and soft commitments, finance, CB, knowledge sharing platforms, Net zero registry (as REDD+ has done) could be part of the broader agreement on Work Streams 1& 2. Slide26

Other COP agenda items re LTG

2013-2015 review of global goal Other agenda items

could reflect 2deg C/LTG/net zero

language within their separate agenda items (e.g. adaptation, loss and damage, national communications guidelines, MRV, finance, capacity building, Article 6, new registry)Article 6 could require all Parties to scale up education requirements/core curricula, training for teachers in primary, secondary and tertiary sector and mandate Massive On Line Courses in all languages.New registry could be organized to giver higher rewards, gold stars to initiatives that are net zero, with others listed in silver, bronze categories to recognise progress and leadership.Sending a signal to the business community with policy certaintyA sense of unity and common direction!Slide27

The LTG

in the ADP Negotiating TextSlide28
Slide29

Option 2, Option (a)

:

Recognizing

that deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions will be required to achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention and the long-term temperature limit / hold the increase in global average temperature, and that such cuts must be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner, Option (c): [Recognizing the importance of long-term efforts to transition to low-carbon economies, mindful of the global temperature goal of 2 °C]Option (a): [Also recognizing

that scenarios consistent with having a likely chance of holding the global average temperature increase to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels include substantial cuts in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by the mid-century and net emission levels near zero gigatonnes

of carbon dioxide equivalent or below in 2100

,

A. Preamble

p. 1Slide30

A. Preamble

p. 1

Option (b):

Also recognizing that scenarios consistent with having a likely chance of holding the global average temperature increase to below 2 °C or 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels include substantial cuts in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by the mid-century and zero emissions within the second half of this century,]Option (d): [Further recognizing that economy-wide emission reduction budgets provide the highest level of clarity, predictability and environmental integrity,]Slide31

Para 1

. [The objective of this agreement is to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions

in line with the ultimate objective of the Convention and to maintain and increase resilience to the adverse effects of climate change.]C. Objectivep. 1Slide32

Para.

5 (5.1)

Option (a):

Ensuring significant global greenhouse gas emission reductions over the next few decades or a 40–70 per cent reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions below 2010 levels by 2050 and near-zero emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other long-lived greenhouse gases by the end of the century;Option (b): Ensuring that global greenhouse gas emissions peak by 2020 at the latest, are reduced by at least 50 per cent by 2050 and continue to decline thereafter [reaching near-zero emissions of CO2 and other long lived greenhouse gases by the end of the century, consistent with the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change];Option (d)

: Ensuring significant and rapid global greenhouse gas emission reductions of at least 70–95 per cent below 2010 levels by 2050 and negative emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases before 2080;

C. Objective

p. 5Slide33

D. Mitigation

p. 9

Para

17 (17.2) Option 1, Option (a): A long-term zero emission sustainable development pathway [bearing in mind that social and economic development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of developing countries][ for developing countries that combines adaptation and mitigation to reduce climate change and its impacts]: i. Consistent with carbon neutrality / net zero emissions by 2050, or full decarbonization by 2050 and/or negative emissions by 2100 [for developed countries];

iii. Consistent with a global reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of at least 50 per cent by 2050 compared with the levels in 1990 and a continued decline in emissions thereafter

, [in the context of equitable access to sustainable development and a global carbon budget][

reaching near-zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases by the end of the century

, consistent with the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]; Slide34

iv. Consistent with emissions peaking for [developed countries][Parties included in annex X] in 2015,

with an aim of zero net emissions by 2050

, in the context of equitable access to sustainable development;

vii. Consistent with the scientific findings of the IPCC, in order to have a likely chance of keeping the temperature change to below 2 °C, global GHG emissions in 2050 will need to be 40 to 70 per cent lower than in 2010 and reach levels near zero Gt CO2 eq or below in 2100; viii. Ensuring significant and rapid global greenhouse gas emission reductions of at least 70–95 per cent below 2010 levels by 2050 and zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases in the period 2060–2080.Option 1, Option (b)

: A full decarbonization by 2050 for developed countries and a sustainable development pathway for developing countries consistent with a peaking of global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible

, noting that the time frame for peaking will be longer in developing countries, in the context of equitable access to sustainable development;

D.

Mitigation

p

. 9-10Slide35

Option 2

: All Parties shall cooperate in achieving the peaking of global and national greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that, consistent with emissions peaking for developed countries in 2015, they shall aim to reduce net emissions to zero by 2050

, and further recognizing that the time frame for peaking will be longer in developing countries, bearing in mind that social and economic development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of developing countries, in the context of equitable access to sustainable development.]

D. Mitigation p. 10Slide36

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Email: farhana.yamin@ontrack0.org