Molly Reynolds Fellow Governance Studies The Brookings Institution Brookings Mountain West Lecture October 4 2016 Flashbackto Last Week In order to avoid a partial government shutdown Congress must adopt a shortterm spending bill by October 1 ID: 688977
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Slide1
The Partisan Politics of the Congressional Budget Process
Molly Reynolds
Fellow, Governance Studies, The Brookings Institution
Brookings Mountain West Lecture
October 4, 2016Slide2
Flashback…to Last Week
In order to avoid a partial government shutdown, Congress must adopt a short-term spending bill by October 1
Congress manages to complete this job on September 28, with just two days to spare. Lasts until December 9.
Process is prolonged largely by disagreement between Republicans and Democrats about two issues:
Should funding for the
Zika
epidemic go to Puerto Rican affiliate of Planned Parenthood?
Should short-term spending bill include funds to address lead contamination issues in the water in Flint, MI?Slide3
“This is a serious situation, not a time for partisan politics.
-Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL)*
*9/13/16; **9/7/16; ***9/7/16; ****9/6/16
“I think they are just being wholly partisan with these endless
filibusters…The Senate has been blatantly political.”
-Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)**
“I’m tired of the partisan games being played.” -Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL)***
“Our colleagues across the aisle will point to partisan excuses, but the bottom line is this: There's no excuse not to pass these bills.”
-Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)****Slide4Slide5Slide6
The Onion
, 2/27/13Slide7
How do party politics shape the budget process?Slide8
Outline
(Short) overview of the budget
process
How is the budget process working?
How does partisan politics affect the process?
Will the 2016 election matter?Slide9
Source: National Priorities ProjectSlide10
Source: National Priorities ProjectSlide11
Source: National Priorities ProjectSlide12
Source: National Priorities ProjectSlide13
Budget Resolution
Appropriations Bills
Source: National Priorities ProjectSlide14
Metric #1: Passing a Budget Resolution (FY1983-2017)
Same Party Controlling Both Houses
Number of Resolutions
Democrats
12
Republicans
11
Overall
23
Percentage Success
Democrats
92%
Republicans
73%
Overall
83%
Different Parties
Number of Resolutions
Democratic
Senate
6
Republican Senate
5
Overall
11
Percentage Success
Democratic
Senate
17%
Republican Senate
100%
Overall
64%Slide15
Metric #2: Developing Appropriations BillsSlide16
Metric #3: Passing Appropriations Bills(FY1983-2017)Slide17
Metric #4: Continuing Resolutions
(
FY1998-2016)
Data:
Congressional Research ServiceSlide18
Is party conflict to blame?
Yes.
Verdict:
Congress regularly struggles to complete various parts of the budget process on timeSlide19
Three Ways Party Conflict Can Affect the Budget Process
Intra-party divisions
Inter-party divisions
Inter-branch divisions
Woon
and Anderson (2012) and Hanson (2014)Slide20
Divisions within the majority partySlide21
Intra-Party Conflict: Appropriations Committees
More appropriations delay when majority party appropriators are ideologically different from majority party as a whole (
Woon
and Anderson 2012)Slide22
Divisions between the partiesSlide23
Inter-Party Conflict: Size of Senate Majority
More omnibus appropriations bills in Senate when Senate majority is smaller (Hanson 2014)Slide24
Inter-Party Conflict: Senate Polarization
More omnibus appropriations bills in Senate when Senate is more polarized (Hanson 2014)Slide25
Divisions between the branchesSlide26
Congress vs. the President
More appropriations delay when Congress and the president are ideologically different (
Woon
and Anderson 2012)Slide27
Budget Process as a “Steam Valve”
Intra- and inter-party divisions affect other parts of the legislative process too
Party leaders respond by tightly managing legislative process, including restricting amendment opportunities
Less able to do this in the budget process Slide28
Budget Process as a “Steam Valve”
“
My reaction is it is like a steam kettle. You fire it up, and it is going to come out someplace. If Senators can freely offer amendments on other measures, they may not be as interested in offering amendments on the budget resolution. But as long as the budget resolution stands almost alone as a way for minority members to get votes on things that they are very interested in getting votes on, you will be a target
.”
--former Senate Parliamentarian Bob Dove, 2009Slide29
Using the Steam Valve: 2015 Confederate Flag Debate
July 2015: House is debating the EPA/Interior appropriations bill
Democrats initially offer an amendment to the bill limiting the display of the Confederate flag on federal lands; the amendment is adopted
Republicans respond with an amendment of their own that would undo the Democrats’ efforts
Rather than hold a vote on the contentious issue, Republican leaders pull the bill from the floor.Slide30
Overall Amendments, House of Representatives
Source: Bipartisan Policy CenterSlide31
Amendments to Appropriations Bills in the HouseSlide32
Amendments to the Senate Budget ResolutionSlide33
Will the 2016 Election Matter?
Some interest in both chambers in budget process reform, but little of that is directed at procedural components
Possibility of a smaller House Republican majority
Possibility of a very closely divided Senate
Unified government wouldn’t be a panacea