Mgr Raman Herasimau SAV EU FSEV UK ramanherasiamusavbask ramanherasimaufsesunibask Content Aims and Research questions Milestones of the results Motivation Methodological approach ID: 1048521
Download Presentation The PPT/PDF document "Immigrants in NTA: case of Slovakia" is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
1. Immigrants in NTA: case of SlovakiaMgr. Raman HerasimauSAV EU / FSEV UKraman.herasiamu@savba.skraman.herasimau@fses.uniba.sk
2. ContentAims and Research questions;Milestones of the results;Motivation;Methodological approach;Results and future research
3. I. Aims and Research questionsAim: Investigate the effects of aging and immigrants on aggregate life cycle deficit in the Slovak Republic. Research questions: 1) What is a difference of immigrants and native population life cycle deficit in Slovakia? 2) What are the effects of immigration on the support ratio and the fiscal support ratio in Slovakia?
4. ContentAims and Research questions;Milestones of the results;Motivation;Methodological approach;Results and future research
5. II. Milestones of the resultsImmigrants have younger population pyramid; Immigrants in Slovakia consume less than natives;Larger share of immigrants occupy low-paid job;Average immigrant of age group 25-65 works ~8.2 months;Net flow of remittance is negative; Immigrants decrease life-cycle deficit;Immigrants increase net transfer flow;
6. ContentAims and Research questions;Milestones of the results;Motivation;Methodological approach;Results and future research.
7. III. Motivation
8. III. Motivation
9. III. Motivation
10. III. MotivationSource: Lee R., Mason A., 2011, p. 19.
11. III. Motivation
12. ContentAims and Research questions;Milestones of the results;Motivation;Methodological approach;Results and future research
13. IV. Methodological approachNational transfer accounts (NTA) specify the system of national accounts in terms of generational allocation of resources;NTAs are called to improve understanding of how population age structure influence the economic growth, gender and generational equity, public finance, and give opportunity to calculate additional synthetic cohort estimates;
14. IV. Methodological approachMacrocontrols (macro level);Age-profiles (micro level);The Life Cycle Account (LCA)ConsumptionIncomeThe Transfer Account (TA)Public transfersPrivate transfersThe Asset base reallocation Account (ABR)Public ABRPrivate ABRSystem of national accounts (SNA);Demography;Synthetic cohort estimatesSupport ratio (SR);Fiscal support ratio (FSR)
15. IV. Methodological approachNTA like any other accounting equations should be balanced: their inflows should be equal to outflows:C + S = YL + YA + τ, (1)Decomposition of the Equation 1 can be shown in two ways:Cp + Cg + Sp + Sg = YL + YAp + YAg + τintra + τinter + τg (2) consumption savings labour + assets income net transfersCpi + Cpn + Cgi + Cgn + Spi + Spn + Sg = YLi + YLn + YApi + YApn + YAg + (τintra + τinter)i + (τintra + τinter)n + τg (3) change to inflows/outflows remittances(τintra + τinter)i change to net inflows/outflows remittances ρ i = (ρinflow - ρoutflow)iCpi + Cpn + Cgi + Cgn + Spi + Spn + Sg = YLi + YLn + YApi + YApn + YAg + ρ i + (τintra + τinter)n + τg (4) (5)
16. IV. Methodological approachThe first step is to derive macro controls for each economic activity from the SNA;The second step is to calculate the age-specific averages of different economic categories;Calculate the age-specific averages for immigrants;Aggregation natives’ and immigrants’ the age-specific averages;The third step is to eliminate random variations using smoothing procedure, due to random sampling of the survey;The fourth step is a proportional age-profile adjustment to macro controls;The fifth step is synthetic cohort estimates calculation (added value)
17. IV. Methodological approachAccount201520162017201820192020LCD12 31212 25812 00912 1005 62015 694 Consumption49 98851 87954 53857 81261 22163 749 Private35 12536 54938 55541 11442 75443 987 Public14 86315 33015 98316 69818 46719 762Labor Income(-)37 67639 62142 52945 71248 37448 055Transfers49-816-703-594-894869 Private-962-1 164-1 100-926-893301 Public1 011348397332-1568ABR12 26313 09812 72812 713-10 60314 844Private ABR12 70012 53613 08813254-9 75211 514 Private income on assets18 86317 52717 11817 99810 47116 875 Private savings(-)6 1634 9914 0304 74420 2235 361Public ABR-437562-360-541-8513 330 Public income on assets-664-645-493-4191 074-465 Public savings(-)-227-1 207-1331221 925-3 795Source: EUROSTAT, author’s own calculation
18. IV. Methodological approachAge profiles of Labor income, earnings and self-employment income for natives, Slovakia, 2015Age profiles of Labor income of natives and labor income distribution of immigrants, Slovakia, 2015Labor income of immigrants, Slovakia, 2015
19. IV. Methodological approach Early childhood educationPrimary educationLower secondary educationUpper secondary educationPost-secondary non-tertiary educationShort-cycle tertiary educationBachelor’s or equivalent levelMaster’s or equivalent levelDoctoral or equivalent leveExpenditures, mln. €398,52678,26719,13724,7576,0615,38951,97666,247,44Number of students161 906216 266253 671200 36115 3262 847172 472120 6769 071Cost per capita, €2 3843 2442 7083 5152 3013 3443 5993 5993 599Age profiles of public education consumption, Slovakia, 2015
20. IV. Methodological approachAge profiles of public consumption, Slovakia, 2015
21. IV. Methodological approachAge profiles of private education, Slovakia, 2015
22. IV. Methodological approachAge profile of private health consumption, Slovakia, 2015Age profile of Other private consumption, Slovakia, 2015
23. IV. Methodological approachAge profiles of old-age benefits, Slovakia, 2015Age profiles of the family and children related allowances, Slovakia, 2015
24. IV. Methodological approachAge profiles of unemployment allowance, Slovakia, 2015
25. IV. Methodological approachTotal remittance inflow, €2,435,293,773.00Total remittance inflow for immigrants40,368,772.32Total remittance outflow, €216,204,084.74Net remittance, €-175,835,312.42 Average per capita remittance outflow, €3,750.6Average per capita remittance inflow, €441.41Average share of income, %6%Source: World bank, MPSVR SR; Authors’ own calculations.Age profiles of remittances age profiles, Slovakia, 2015Remittance flows, Slovakia, 2015
26. IV. Methodological approachAge profiles of interhousehold transfers, Slovakia, 2015Age profiles of Intra-household inflows and outflows, Slovakia, 2015
27. ContentAims and Research questions;Milestones of the results;Motivation;Methodological approach;Results and future research.
28. V. Results and future researchMV SRMPSVR SRAdjustmentsReconciled Total population91456-091456Foreign workers6676552675-1409052675Students13612--112632349Non-workers11079-+2535336432Source: MV SR, MPSVR SR; Authors’ own calculationsReconciliation datasets of MV SR and MPSVR SR, Slovakia, 2015Life cycle deficit of immigrants per capita, Slovakia, 2015 Transfer flows of immigrants per capita, Slovakia, 2015
29. V. Results and future researchPublic and Private transfers, Asset-based reallocation per capita, Slovakia, 2015Life cycle deficit of natives per capita, Slovakia, 2015
30. V. Results and future researchComparison of immigrant’s and native’s LCD per capita, Slovakia, 2015
31. V. Results and future researchAggregate transfers with and without immigrants, Slovakia, 2015Aggregated LCD with and without immigrants, Slovakia, 2015
32. V. Results and future research SR_imFSR_imSRFSR20150.4785611.0000000.5519631.00000020160.4783790.9999700.5518991.00014120170.4787480.9976780.5488090.98949520180.4792610.9950230.5455210.97889520190.4801140.9910410.5419840.96818220200.480350.9894270.5381270.957178Source: Authors’ own calculationsSupport ratio and Fiscal support ratio, Slovakia, 2015
33. V. Results and future researchLabor income need to be detailed; With current stage of EU SILC and HBS development ABR account for immigrant can’t be built properly;Calculation of remittance inflow can be improved;Transfer account can be improved via additional administrative data collection;Almost 42% of immigrants are out of research;
34. Thank you for your attention