Plan Update 1 Part A Forecast Future Year TAZ Data Inputs FSUTMS Comprehensive Modeling Workshop 2 Lesson Goals In this lesson we will discuss TAZ Data required for future year model update ID: 920168
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Lesson 6LRTP Update Phase II: Plan Update
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Slide2Part AForecast Future Year TAZ Data InputsFSUTMS Comprehensive Modeling Workshop
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Slide3Lesson GoalsIn this lesson, we will discuss:TAZ Data required for future year model update Network data required for future year model update
Deficiency analysis and performance measures
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Slide4OutlineForecast Future Year Zone Data Inputs:Compatibility of base and future year zone systemsForecast SE data for future year Forecast external trips
Consider special generator trips
Finalize/Approval of SE Data
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Slide5Compatibility of Base and Future Year Zone SystemsZone splitting should ideally be addressed as part of a base year model updateBase year zone splitting should consider future year needsShould future year SE data be developed prior to finalizing zone splits, zone disaggregation must be accomplished
Should needs for additional zone splitting be identified during future year modeling, zone splits should be applied to the base year model as well, for consistency
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Slide6Forecasting Zone Data for Future YearTypically top down approach used by MPOs/Planning DepartmentsStart with future year county population control totals from Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR):
Dwelling units estimated using base year ratios of PPDU
Vacant units and auto availability typically constant from base year
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Slide7Forecasting Zone Data for Future Year (Cont’d)County employment control totals available from Woods and Poole:Base year proportions by employment typed used for disaggregationSchool enrollment forecasts either reflect population growth rates or further extrapolate short term school board forecasts
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Slide8Forecast External TripsUse base year external counts as starting pointGrowth factor methodology:Traffic count trend extrapolationsGrowth rates from available BEBR population forecasts
Growth rates from other sources (utility companies, economic studies, Woods & Poole, etc.)
Usually assume base year IE/EE splits and EE O/D patterns
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Slide9Consider Special GeneratorsMany special generator quantities will remain same as base year (i.e., park acreage, etc.)Check enplanement forecasts for airport growthReview Campus Master Plans and extrapolate growth in students
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Slide10Finalize/Approval of SE Data ForecastsAfter all forecast data is collected:Independent review and assessment of forecasts using GIS
Get stakeholder agreement and MPO adoption
Proceed to use data to forecast alternatives
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Slide11Quiz #9An MPO has a model with a 2015 base year and a 2045 horizon year. To run the horizon year model:Will friction factors need to be updated? Should the IE trip splits be adjusted from the base year?
Will 2045 households and population need to be updated?
Will the 2015 employment figures need to be adjusted?
Will 2045 school enrollment need to be updated?
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Slide12Quiz #9 – AnswersAn MPO has a model with a 2015 base year and a 2045 horizon year. To run the horizon year model:Will friction factors need to be updated? No
Should the IE trip splits be adjusted from the base year?
No
Will 2045 households and population need to be updated?
Yes
Will the 2015 employment figures need to be adjusted?
No
Will 2045 school enrollment need to be updated?
Yes
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Slide13End of Lesson 6, Part APlease proceed to Guided Exercises 22 and 23
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Slide14Part BForecast Future Year Network Data InputsFSUTMS Comprehensive Modeling Workshop
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Slide15OutlineForecast Future Existing-plus-Committed (E+C) Network:Identify roadway projects constructed since base year modelCompare current transit route system against base year model (routes, stops, fares, and headways)
Compare roadway projects and new transit services in TIP against the base year network
Conduct quality control through use of plots or on-screen method
Verify if changes are needed to prohibitors or toll file
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Slide16Existing + Committed NetworkRepresents existing network (projects completed or under construction since base year).Includes funds committed for construction/implementation in Transportation Improvement Program (TIP)Used for identifying deficiencies to be addressed in the LRTP in the absence of further investments (No Build)
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Slide17Sources for Projects Implemented since Base YearLocal knowledgePrior year TIPsGoogle mapField review
Updated transit route map/schedule
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Slide18Sources of Future Year Network DataOther sources future year network data:State DOTCity or County Public Works
Florida Turnpike Enterprise or local toll authority
Local Transit Agencies
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Data
Disaggregated by
Source
Roadway Characteristics
Facility type, area type, and number of lanes for those roads that were E+C projects
State DOT, County or City Public Works Departments
Toll Facility Data (if toll facilities included in model)
Location, type, toll fares, service time, ratio of heavy trucks
Local toll authorities or Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise
Transit Network Data (if transit network included in model)
Future Route, stop, and station locations, mode, speed, time, fare, headway, passenger capacity, park & ride locations and capacities, short- and long-term parking cost, walk time from park & ride and kiss & ride to station
Local transit agencies
Slide19Check TIPIdentify major roadway capacity projects and new transit services in the current TIP:The TIP identifies how State and Federal transportation money is spent in an MPO areaFlorida TIPs cover a period 5 years from the current fiscal year
Projects usually listed in tabular format
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Slide20Check TIP (Cont’d)TIP data may also be presented in maps with projects highlighted by yearObtain GIS shape files used to prepare map(s) if possible
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Slide21Conduct Network Quality controlEnsure that projects in the current TIP are properly coded in E+C network2000 Base Year Network link absent
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Slide22Conduct Network Quality control (Cont’d)E+C network shown:Links now present based on projects that either: Have been completed since base year, or
Will be completed by end of current TIP period
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Slide23Attributes to be Checked for E+C NetworkHighway Network:Area TypeFacility TypeNumber of Lanes
Transit Network:
Headways
Stop Locations
Route Configurations
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Slide24Changes to Penalties, Prohibitors, & TollsNew bridgesNew interchange configurationsNew toll facilitiesNew managed lane facilities
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Slide25Quiz #10, Part 1An MPO has a 2045 model with a base year of 2015. Since 2015, a 4-lane interstate has been widened to 6 lanes. No other change has been made to the interstate’s characteristics. The model has an interim year of 2020:For the 2015 network, do we adjust the number of lanes to 6?
For the 2020 network, do we change the area type?
For 2020, do we change the number of lanes to 6?
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Slide26Quiz #10, Part 1 – AnswersAn MPO has a 2045 model with a base year of 2015. Since 2015, a 4-lane interstate has been widened to 6 lanes. No other change has been made to the interstate’s characteristics. The model has an interim year of 2020: For the 2015 network, do we adjust the number of lanes to 6?
No
For the 2020 network, do we change the area type?
No
For 2020, do we change the number of lanes to 6?
Yes
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Slide27Quiz #10, Part 2The MPO’s 4-year TIP calls for a remaining gap in its interstate network to be completed by a new alignment. An existing 2-lane minor arterial roadway that will intersect with this segment is to be upgraded to a divided arterial and widened to 6 lanes in the TIP:Will a new link need to be coded for the interstate in 2015?
Will the area type need to be changed for the Arterial in 2020?
Will the facility type need to be changed for the Arterial in 2020?
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Slide28Quiz #10, Part 2 – AnswersThe MPO’s 4-year TIP calls for a remaining gap in its interstate network to be completed by a new alignment. An existing 2-lane minor arterial roadway that will intersect with this segment is to be upgraded to a divided arterial and widened to 6 lanes in the TIP:Will a new link need to be coded for the interstate in 2015?
No
Will the area type need to be changed for the Arterial in 2020?
No
Will the facility type need to be changed for the Arterial in 2020?
Yes
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Slide29End of Lesson 6, Part BPlease Proceed to Independent Exercise 24: Add Existing-Plus-Committed ProjectsFSUTMS Comprehensive Modeling Workshop
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Slide30Part CForecast Future Year CongestionFSUTMS Comprehensive Modeling Workshop
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Slide31OutlineForecast Regional Future Year Congestion:Run model with horizon year SE data on E+C networkMap assignment results by volume over capacity
System-wide statistical comparisons
Systems alternatives analysis
Master networks
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Slide32Horizon Year E+C ForecastsUsing the developed E+C network run the model with horizon year data including:SE dataExternal TripsSpecial Generators
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Slide33Horizon Year E+C Forecasts (Cont’d)FSUTMS Comprehensive Modeling Workshop
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Slide34Volume over Capacity RatiosFor future year scenarios:Volume over capacity ratios are a primary roadway performance metricVolume-to-count/base assignment statistic can supplement to indicate level of traffic growth (if ratio is LT1.0, future forecast is less than base year traffic count or base year assignment)
Congested speeds iteratively adjusted based on V/C ratio
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Slide35Horizon Year E+C Deficiency AnalysisResulting volume over capacity ratios: Highlight areas of network capacity deficiency (red and yellow links – poor, green –good )A starting point to evaluate network improvements
LOS tools can supplement in
problem areas
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Slide36Congested E+C SpeedsCongested speeds are another performance measure typically analyzed:Used particularly for post processing inputs to:
Air quality models
In detailed HCM analysis
As starting point in mesoscopic and microscopic simulation
Other post Transportation Demand Management (TDM) processes
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Slide37System-Wide Statistical ComparisonsCalculated using variety of post-processor steps:Vehicle-miles traveled
Vehicle-hours traveled
Transit ridership
Congested travel times
Delay
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Slide38Systems Alternatives AnalysisOnce deficient corridors have been identified, systems alternatives are developed and compared including:Focus on new roadwaysMaximizing preservation of existing corridors
Emphasis on transit solutions
Congestion pricing/managed facilities
Transit-oriented development and related solutions
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Slide39Master Networks and Alternatives CodingTo aid in alternatives analysis some models use master network configurations:A master network is a network in which all combinations of alternatives and years are coded in a single network database
Each alternative is identified by an attributes indicating
Specific Year/Alternative (e.g., FTYPE_00A, FTYPE_30A)
Unloaded network generated according to scenario being run
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Slide40Master Networks and Alternatives Coding (Cont’d)Master network advantages:Errors can be corrected in multiple network scenarios simultaneouslyEases file management:
One file replaces several
Master network disadvantages:
Takes longer to setup initially
Requires more file storage
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Slide41End of Lesson 6, Part CPlease Proceed to Guided Exercise 25
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Slide42Independent Exercise 26a: Execute Model and Map Volume-to-Capacity RatiosIndependent Exercise 26b: Based on the vol./cap. ratios indicated on the map, identify alternatives that may help. Code in the alternatives, execute the model, map resulting vol./cap. ratios and check if they helped.
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Slide43Part DTest AlternativesFSUTMS Comprehensive Modeling Workshop
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Slide44Please proceed to Guided Exercise 27Once Exercise 27 is complete, proceed to Independent Exercise 28: Compare StatisticsFSUTMS Comprehensive Modeling Workshop
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Slide45End of Lesson 6, Part DFSUTMS Comprehensive Modeling Workshop
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