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Slide1
25 June 2015 – SOER 2015 launch event Helsinki
Slide2
The European Environment Agency
The
EEA
is an EU agency that operates at the interface of science and policy. With a network of more than 300 institutions in 39 European countries, the EEA provides timely, reliable and relevant information to support sustainable development.EEA work is targeted at EU institutions, EEA member countries, civil society and the general public.Slide3
The European environment – state and outlook 2015
(SOER 2015)
A comprehensive assessment of past trends and future outlooks.
SOER 2015 informs policy implementation and reflects on opportunities to recalibrate policies, knowledge, investments and innovations in line with the 2050 vision of the 7th EAP.
SOER 2015 Synthesis report
SOER 2015 Assessment of global megatrends
11 briefings
Global
megatrends
25
briefings
European
briefings
9
briefings
Cross-country
comparisons
39+3
briefings
Countries
and
regionsSlide4
The policy context
Source: EEA Multiannual
Work Programme
2014–2018Slide5
Vision of the 7th Environment Action Programme
‘
In 2050, we live well, within the planet's ecological
limits
.
Our
prosperity and healthy environment stem from an innovative,
circular economy
where nothing is wasted and where natural resources are managed sustainably, and
biodiversity
is protected, valued and restored in ways that enhance our society's
resilience
. Our
low-carbon
growth has long been decoupled from resource use, setting the pace for a global safe and sustainable society.
’
Source: 7th
EU Environment
Action ProgrammeSlide6
Key messages from SOER 2015
Policies
have delivered substantial benefits for the environment, economy and people’s well-being; major challenges remain
Europe faces persistent and emerging challenges linked to production and consumption systems, and the rapidly changing global context Achieving the 2050 vision requires system transitions, driven by more ambitious actions on policy, knowledge, investments and innovationDoing so presents
major
opportunities
to boost
Europe’s economy and employment and
put Europe at the frontier of science and
innovation
© Daniel
Danko
, Environment & Me /EEA Slide7
Assessing
past trends and future outlooks
The Synthesis report
addresses the three thematic priority objectives of the 7th EAP:Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capitalResource efficiency and the low-carbon economySafeguarding from environmental risks to healthTwo overall patterns emerge:Resource efficiency improvements have been notable but have not translated into increased ecosystem and social resilienceThe
long-term outlook is
often less
positive than recent
trends
© Ana
Skobe
,
Environment
& Me /EEA Slide8
Thematic priority objective 1:
Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital
Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.
Past (5–10
year) trends
Progress to policy targets
Terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity
Land use and soil functions
No target
Ecological status of freshwater bodies
Water quality and nutrient loading
Air pollution and its ecosystem impacts
Marine and coastal biodiversity
Climate change impacts on ecosystems
No target
Improving trends dominate
Trends show mixed picture
Deteriorating trends dominate
L
argely
on track
Partially on track
Largely not on track
20+ years outlookSlide9
Thematic
priority objective 2:Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy
Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.
Past (5–10
year) trends
Progress to policy targets
Material resource efficiency and material use
No target
Waste management
Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change mitigation
/
Energy consumption and fossil fuel use
Transport demand and related environmental impacts
Industrial pollution to air, soil and water
Water use and water quantity stress
Improving trends dominate
Trends show mixed picture
Deteriorating trends dominate
L
argely
on track
Partially on track
Largely not on track
20+ years outlook
Slide10
Thematic priority objective
3:Safeguarding from environmental risks to health
Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.
Past
(
5–10
year) trends
Progress to policy targets
Water pollution and related environmental health risks
/
Air pollution and related environmental health risks
Noise pollution (especially in urban areas)
Urban systems and grey infrastructure
No target
Climate change and related environmental health risks
No target
Chemicals and related environmental health risks
/
Improving trends dominate
Trends show mixed picture
Deteriorating trends dominate
L
argely
on track
Partially on track
Largely not on track
20+ years outlook
/
Slide11
The overall picture:
Efficiency improvements have not secured long-term resilience
Protecting, conserving
and enhancing natural capital
Resource efficiency
and the low-carbon
economy
Safeguarding from
environmental risks to health
Past
(5–10)
year
trends
Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report
.
Improving trends dominate
Trends show mixed picture
Deteriorating trends dominate
20+ years
outlook
/
Slide12
Understanding past trends and
future outlooks
Two major factors
explain the uneven progress and prospects:The changing global context Competition for resourcesPressures from outside
Europe
Planetary
boundaries
Systemic
characteristics
of
environmental challenges
Complexity
Uncertainty
Environmental, social and economic interdependencies
© Ana Skobe
, Environment
& Me /EEA Slide13
Understanding past trends and future outlooks:
Natural capital
Long time-lags between reduced pressures and positive changes
Pressures on ecosystems remain considerableExternal trends can counteract the positive effects of local efforts © Alex Dumitrescu, Environment & Me /EEA
Source: EEA, SOER 2015 Synthesis.Slide14
Understanding
past trends and future outlooks:
Resource
efficiency and the low-carbon economyProduction-consumption systems support livelihoods, creating lock-insGlobalisation of production and consumption constrains EU influenceMore efficient production lowers costs, incentivising more consumption© Keith Arkins, Environment & Me /EEA
Source: EEA, SOER 2015 Synthesis.Slide15
Understanding past trends and future
outlooks:
Safeguarding from environmental risks to health
Impacts resulting from climate change are expected to worsenChanging exposures, urbanisation and ageing increase vulnerabilityGood urban design delivers benefits to health and well-being© Alexander Goranov, Environment & Me /EEA
Sources:
Eurostat,
Gisco
- Urban Audit 2012;
EEA,
AirBase
and Indicator CSI004.Slide16
The global population is expected to grow 43% by 2050, with Africa’s population increasing especially fast
Source: UN World population prospects: The 2012 revision.
World Population projection
trends, 1950
2100Slide17
World
resource
use is expected
to at least double in the next three decades© Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA
Souce
: SERI
(2013): SERI Global Material Flows Database. 2013 Edition.
Available
at:
www.materialflows.netSlide18
Projections of climate change impacts are increasingly worrying
© Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA Slide19
Global temperature increases of
4⁰C or more by 2100 would create significant risks to global food security
Projected change in global aggregate crop yields due to climate change, 2010–2109
Source: IPCC, 2014.Slide20
Looking ahead:
Systemic challenges require systemic solutions
Not just incremental efficiency
gains
but
fundamental
transitions in
food, energy, mobility
, urban,
finance and fiscal systems
through profound changes
in dominant
practices, policies and thinking.
Source
: TeslaSlide21
Energy efficiency has increased, but we
are
far from a low-carbon economy
Source: EEA (CSI 028)Slide22
Homes are now more energy efficient, but also much larger, increasing pressures on land, water and materialsSlide23
Cars are more efficient but
overall fuel consumption and emissions have increased
Source
: TeslaSlide24
Achieving the 2050 vision depends on action
today
: Fostering innovation
Technological, economic and social innovations can support long-term transitions to a green economy Creating a green economy requires upscaling niche innovationsPublicly funded research has fostered many of the most important and commercially successful innovationsEurope should not be afraid of leading the world on environmental standards: investments and innovation can boost prosperity today ©
Victor Troyanov,
Environment & Me /EEA Slide25
Eco-industries have prospered despite the recession in Europe
© Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA
Eco-industry value added
Eco-industry employment
Total EU GDP
Total EU employment
Source: Eurostat, 2014.Slide26
Environmental policy is a driver of innovation,
not a deterrent
© Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA
Source: OECD
Patent applications with European coverage
(1978=100, 3-yr moving average)Slide27
Europe’s environmental leadership can set standards globally
© Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA
Adoption of the EU's Euro emissions standards for cars and vans in Asian countries, 1995–2025
Source: Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities,
2011Slide28
Innovation in urban systems: green infrastructure
©
Victor Troyanov,
Environment & Me /EEA
Air trees, Madrid
Urban forest,
MilanSlide29
Innovative financing tool: green bonds
Green bonds
– a hybrid investment tool for
financing transitions by combining public and private contributions© Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA Slide30
Looking ahead:
Living well within the limits of the planet by 2050
Achieving the 2050 vision is possible but it depends on our actions and investments today.
Systemic change must deliver decent employment, prosperity and equity, as well as respecting environmental limits. SOER 2015 illustrates the success of European policy. We should be confident in entering a new stage of environmental governance.The EEA’s growing knowledge base and partnerships can provide valuable inputs to EPSC work © Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA Slide31
Explore SOER 2015 online:
eea.europa.eu/
soerSlide32
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at:http://eea-subscriptions.eu/subscribeThank you!BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS