Voter Turnout in the 2016 Election and the Impact of State Election Policies Who we are Nonprofit VOTE Nonpartisan resources and trainings for the nonprofit sector US Elections Project T ID: 604383
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Slide1
The PowerPoint and a link to the recording of the webinar will be distributed in a follow up email
Voter Turnout in the 2016 Election and the Impact of State Election PoliciesSlide2
Who we are
Nonprofit VOTE: Nonpartisan resources and trainings for the nonprofit sector
U.S. Elections Project: Timely
and accurate election statistics, reports, and other
information on the United States electoral system. (T
he
inventor of VEP)
NALEO Education Fund:
Facilitates
Latino participation in American
politics
from voting and citizenship to public service.Slide3
Today’s presenters
Dorian CaalDirector of Civic Engagement Research at NALEO Educational Fund
Brian Miller
Executive Director, Nonprofit VOTE
Michael McDonald
Director,
US Elections Project
&
Assoc Professor, Political Science
University of Florida
WhoSlide4
National Turnout & State Rankings
Turnout Impact of Same Day Voter Registration and Electoral Competition
A Look at the Latino Vote
State Election Policies: Laboratories of Democracy
DiscussionToday’s agenda
AgendaSlide5
# OF TOTAL BALLOTS COUNTED
_____________________________VOTING ELIGIBLE POPULATION
WHAT IS VEP
MEASURING VOTER TURNOUTSlide6
NATIONAL TURNOUT 1972 - 2016
139 Million or 60.2%
of 231 million eligible voters
3rd highest
since 18 year olds gained the vote.Slide7
state turnout rankingsSlide8
Highest and lowest states
Top Rank:
SDR, Battleground, CompetitionBottom Rank:
4 week VR cut-offs, Non-battlegroundSlide9
Same day voter registration
Seven points turnout advantage in 2016
Consistent even as the # of SDR states has grown
6
7
10
11
15
7Slide10
Battleground states
14 battleground states
where election decided in 2016
5-8 point turnout advantage
over last five electionsSlide11
Campaign money and visits
Almost all campaign visits and spending in BG states
57% visits and 71% spending
in 4 states: FL, NC, PA, OH Slide12
Voter turnout & margin of victorySlide13
Competition in U.S. house races??
Before Election:
37 of 435 seen competitive
After Election: 33
were within 10 points
Cook Political ReportSlide14
The
Latino Vote
March 23, 2017Slide15
At least 16.2 million Latinos were registered to vote for Election 2016
NALEO EDUCATIONAL FUND ESTIMATESlide16
NALEO Education Fund was estimating more
than 13.1 million Latinos
would vote
in the Election
2016
Won’t have U.S. census estimate until sometime in 2017
However, early analysis suggest a record number of Latinos voted in most states (it is too early to know whether Latino turnout percent of Latino eligible topped 2008 or 2012)
Latino TurnoutSlide17
Estimates suggest more than 420,000 Latinos voted in Arizona with other estimates suggesting turnout as high as 550,000; either estimate would be higher than the 400,000 the Census estimated in 2012
More than 236,000 Latinos are estimated to have voted in Nevada in 2016 compared to 157,000 in 2012
3,349,000
million Latinos
are estimated to have voted
in California compared to 3,157,000 in 2012
Latino Turnout – Arizona, Nevada & CaliforniaSlide18
Latino Early Vote
* Estimate uses cumulative data 0 days before election and race data from
CatalistSlide19
Latino Early Vote
* Estimate uses cumulative data 0 days before election and race data from
CatalistSlide20
Many Non-partisan Latino organizations conducted GOTV and Voter Registration efforts
NALEO Educational Fund carried out multiple experiments to understand what works and what might not
Analysis suggest long term youth engagement has a positive effect on turnout
Latino
MobilizationSlide21
Thank you.
Dorian
Caal
Director of Civic Engagement Research
dcaal@naleo.org
www.naleo.orgSlide22
Watching from the sidelines
147 million in voters in 36 non-battleground states
75% of Latino and
81% of AAPI voters Slide23
NONPROFITS CONTACT VOTERS
While less than half
of Latino/AAPI voters contacted…
One-third were contacted by community organizations
Source:
Latino
Decisions
Phoenix High School on NVRDSlide24
1. Voter registration modernizationSlide25
2. Voting access
Receive Ballot at Home- Drop Off anytime
– 4 states
Early Voting Weekend and Evenings – 20+ StatesSlide26
3. Competition and choice
End the Gerrymander–
3 States NP Comm, 5 BP Comm
National Popular Vote – 11 States
Ranked Choice Voting – 1 statewide + 7 other statesSlide27
4. The right to vote
Restore Voting Rights Ex Offenders -
15 States
End Restrictive Laws – 35+ States have done so
12%
27%Slide28
QuestionsSlide29Slide30
info@nonprofitvote.org
617.357.VOTE (8683)
www.nonprofitvote.org
Nonprofit
VOTE
Michael McDonald
University of Florida
www.electproject.org ●
@ElectProject