Idar Barstad IdarBarstad unino Uni Research UniComputing Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Motivation Orographic precipitation and climate change Results from a smallscaled field campaign ID: 777184
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Slide1
Precipitation in Norway
Idar BarstadIdar.Barstad@uni.noUni Research – (UniComputing / Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)
Slide2Motivation:
Orographic precipitation and climate change Results from a small-scaled field campaign
Slide3Nesttun, 14th September 2005
Slide4Return period /-amount for Bergen (daily data)
x2 months later1000
100
1
Return value (mm/day)
Return period (years)
Slide514th Nov 2005
NERSC/NASA
Slide6Pressure patterns leading up to extreme precipitation
-2 days-2 daysCluster #23
Extreme day
Extreme day
(Barstad and Sorteberg, 2012, in prep.)
Slide7Mean precipitation Norway – whole year
Sorteberg & Kvamstø, 2008ARPEGE (HADCM3)ARPEGE (GFDL)
Slide8The study
Increasing demand of products from numerical models of high resolutionQ: Can models deliver what we ask for?
Slide9Experimental set-up
Collect precipitation using rain gauges (“tipping” buckets)For 12 weeks 2006 across an island at the west coast of NorwayRun numerical model - WRFV3.3, 9-3-1 km, MYJ, Thompson MP - spectral nudging (>1000km), 45-15-5 sec time stepMaterial from a submitted paper (Barstad, 2012 ; QJRMS)
Slide10Domain
9-3-1 km domain~500 m peaks10 km
Contours every 50 m
Slide11Total precip
3 km frontal3 km convectiveVertically int.water vaporrose
Slide12Total precip at 1-km grid
Slide131
10
8
18
9
2
mod/obs
Slide14Precip at high percentiles
OBSmod(10min accumulation)
Slide15Time-step prec
OBS1 km3 km(0.2 mm per tip)
Slide16Radiosonde info
Slide17Shallow convection
Slide18Extreme precip cases (q99)
Slide19Time-step prec
OBS1 km3 km
Slide20WRF and shallow convection
C Vincent (2010)
Slide21Zoom in on the convection
It doesn’t seem to be aswell defined and organizedas suggested by the model
Slide22Thank you!
Email: Idar.Barstad@uni.no
Slide23Extreme precipitation – w Norway
Caroletti and Barstad (2009)A1B scenario – downscalingusing 12 GCM models