Margaret S McMillan Department of Economics Tufts University httpmargaretsmcmillancom William A Masters Department of Food and Nutrition Policy Tufts University httpsitestuftseduwillmasters ID: 1010296
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1. Disease Control, Demographic Change and Institutional Development in Africa Margaret S. McMillanDepartment of Economics, Tufts Universityhttp://margaretsmcmillan.com/William A. MastersDepartment of Food and Nutrition Policy, Tufts Universityhttp://sites.tufts.edu/willmastersHarounan KaziangaDepartment of Economics, Oklahoma State Universityhttp://www.hkazianga.org/Revised version of NBER Working Paper No. 17718, entitled “Rural Demography, Public Services and Land Rights in Africa: A Village-Level Analysis in Burkina Faso”
2. Abstract: Our paper in 150 wordsThis paper addresses the role of tropical disease in rural demography, land use rights and public amenities, using data from Onchocerciasis (river blindness) control in Burkina Faso. We combine a new survey of village elders with historical census data for 1975-2006 and geocoded maps of treatment under the regional Onchocerciasis Control Program (OCP). The OCP ran from 1975 to 2002, first spraying rivers to stop transmission and then distributing medicine to help those already infected. Controlling for time and village fixed effects, we find that villages in treated areas acquired larger populations and also had more cropland transactions, fewer permits required for cropland transactions, and more regulation of common property pasture and forest. Treated villages also acquired closer access to electricity and telephone service, markets, wells and primary schools, with no difference in several other variables. These results are consistent with both changes in productivity and effects of population size on public institutions.Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | Results
3. Abstract: Our paper in 150 wordsThis paper addresses the role of tropical disease in rural demography, land use rights and public amenities, using data from Onchocerciasis (river blindness) control in Burkina Faso. We combine a new survey of village elders with historical census data for 1975-2006 and geocoded maps of treatment under the regional Onchocerciasis Control Program (OCP). The OCP ran from 1975 to 2002, first spraying rivers to stop transmission and then distributing medicine to help those already infected. Controlling for time and village fixed effects, we find that villages in treated areas acquired larger populations and also had more cropland transactions, fewer permits required for cropland transactions, and more regulation of common property pasture and forest. Treated villages also acquired closer access to electricity and telephone service, markets, wells and primary schools, with no difference in several other variables. These results are consistent with both changes in productivity and effects of population size on public institutions.Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | Results
4. Abstract: Our paper in 150 wordsThis paper addresses the role of tropical disease in rural demography, land use rights and public amenities, using data from Onchocerciasis (river blindness) control in Burkina Faso. We combine a new survey of village elders with historical census data for 1975-2006 and geocoded maps of treatment under the regional Onchocerciasis Control Program (OCP). The OCP ran from 1975 to 2002, first spraying rivers to stop transmission and then distributing medicine to help those already infected. Controlling for time and village fixed effects, we find that villages in treated areas acquired larger populations and also had more cropland transactions, fewer permits required for cropland transactions, and more regulation of common property pasture and forest. Treated villages also acquired closer access to electricity and telephone service, markets, wells and primary schools, with no difference in several other variables. These results are consistent with both changes in productivity and effects of population size on public institutions.Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | Results
5. Abstract: Our paper in 150 wordsThis paper addresses the role of tropical disease in rural demography, land use rights and public amenities, using data from Onchocerciasis (river blindness) control in Burkina Faso. We combine a new survey of village elders with historical census data for 1975-2006 and geocoded maps of treatment under the regional Onchocerciasis Control Program (OCP). The OCP ran from 1975 to 2002, first spraying rivers to stop transmission and then distributing medicine to help those already infected. Controlling for time and village fixed effects, we find that villages in treated areas acquired larger populations and also had more cropland transactions, fewer permits required for cropland transactions, and more regulation of common property pasture and forest. Treated villages also acquired closer access to electricity and telephone service, markets, wells and primary schools, with no difference in several other variables. These results are consistent with both changes in productivity and effects of population size on public institutions.Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | Results
6. Abstract: Our paper in 150 wordsThis paper addresses the role of tropical disease in rural demography, land use rights and public amenities, using data from Onchocerciasis (river blindness) control in Burkina Faso. We combine a new survey of village elders with historical census data for 1975-2006 and geocoded maps of treatment under the regional Onchocerciasis Control Program (OCP). The OCP ran from 1975 to 2002, first spraying rivers to stop transmission and then distributing medicine to help those already infected. Controlling for time and village fixed effects, we find that villages in treated areas acquired larger populations and also had more cropland transactions, fewer permits required for cropland transactions, and more regulation of common property pasture and forest. Treated villages also acquired closer access to electricity and telephone service, markets, wells and primary schools, with no difference in several other variables. These results are consistent with both changes in productivity and effects of population size on public institutions.Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | Results
7. What are the “deep determinants” of global poverty?Why are some still so poor, long after others got so rich?The most visible variation is explained by social choices especially institutional rules and government policiesThose differences can in turn be traced to physical geography especially tropical climate and landlocked isolation Do geographic factors still matter today?Do yesterday’s obstacles still limit peoples’ choices?We might look where a new technology has helped overcome an old geographic obstacle, and see how people respond…Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | Results
8. Tropical disease control as natural experimentTropical diseases are location-specific, often “endemic” in a particular place In the 20th century, especially after World War II, there were many breakthroughs against tropical disease…The particular tropical disease control we study was unusual:Big enough to matter, but varied enough to measure (All across Africa, including about 60% of Burkina Faso)Suddenly brought under control in recent decades(From 1975 to 2002, between census years) Clearly exogenous to Burkina Faso’s own choices(Same treatment across almost all of West Africa)Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | Results
9. The details of Onchocerciasis A species of blackfly (Simulium damnosum) breed in rivers, bite people and pick up Onchocerca larvatransmit the Onchocerca to its next victimA species of worm (Onchocerca volvulus)grow in nodules under your skin, live for about 14 yearsrelease millions of microfilarial larva that live or up to 2 years in the human host, who they maim and blind, and viable for 6-8 days in the blackfly during transmission to next victim= > Endemic in hot, tropical places near to rivers (up to 40 km?), with low population density (under 35-50 people/km2)Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | Results
10. Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsSource: Carter Center (2010), River Blindness Programs. http://www.cartercenter.org/health/river_blindness.
11. Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsThe West Africa Onchocerciasis Control Program (OCP)Step 1: Spray larvacide in rivers, to stop blackfly reproductionIn the late 1950s, French researchers mapped the blackfly larva and showed that killing them would stop transmissionFrom 1975, World Bank and other donors paid for helicopters to spray larvacide over rivers in Oncho areas across AfricaSource: IRD (2010), Onchocerciasis. http://en.ird.fr/all-the-current-events/news/onchocerciasis-an-exemplary-control-programme.Source: WHO (n.d.), African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control. http://www.who.int/apoc/onchocerciasis/control/en.
12. Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsThe West Africa Onchocerciasis Control Program (OCP)Step 1: Spray larvacide in rivers, to stop blackfly reproductionStep 2: Distribute deworming meds, to kill microfilariaSource: Merck (2012), www.mectizan.orgIn the 1980s, a veterinary deworming drug called ivermectin (Mectizan) was found to control Onchocerciasis symptoms in peopleSince 1987, Merck has given the drug freely for distribution by aid agencies in affected areas
13. Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsThe West Africa Onchocerciasis Control Program (OCP)spraying stopped in 1989, after 14 years (no new transmission)ivermectin distribution stopped in 2002 (and continues elsewhere)
14. Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsOCP Results in West AfricaBurkina FasoBurkina FasoEstimated Onchocerciasis Prevalence in West AfricaPrior to control (1974)After control (2002)Source: WHO, Onchocerciasis Control Programme (www.who.int/apoc/onchocerciasis/ocp).How did people respond?
15. Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsHow might people have responded to Oncho control?Move into and invest in previously Oncho-affected areasImprove institutions and public policies in those areasIf we observe this in response to the OCP during 1975-2002…Then the presence of Oncho can help explain why these locations stayed poor…which in turn implies that OCP-type programs to overcome other geographic problems can help disadvantaged locationsbecause their “deep determinants” of historical underdevelopment might still be operative today
16. Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsVillages’ Location, Population Growth 1975-85 and Oncho Status
17. Survey MethodUniverse is 747 villages in the national farm survey of the Office of Agricultural Statistics in Burkina Faso, minus 118 subject to AVV planning, and 14 missing from census data, for a sample of 615 villagesSurvey asks a focus group of elders to recall:the status of the village’s land rights and distance to various public amenities,now and in the past, recording the year of each change.Responses permit construction of 3-step time serieswe use only the situation in 1975, 1985, 1996 and 2006some villages did not report some data, so samples varyDisease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | Results
18. Questionnaire design: land rightsDisease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsN°Questions RéponseVIII.1Type de droit appliquée pour les terres de culture(si la réponse est non, mettre des croix à année de début d’application) Type de droit appliquée (1=Oui ; 0=Non)Année de début d’application VIII.1.1Propriété individuelle |____||____|____|____|____| VIII.1.2Propriété collective-familiale|____||____|____|____|____| VIII.1.3Propriété collective-communautaire|____||____|____|____|____|VIII.2Location, vente et prêts de terres de culture(si la réponse est non, mettre des croix à année de début d’application) Possibilité de transaction(1=Oui ; 0=Non)Année de début d’application VIII.2.1Est-ce que la terre peut-être louée ?|____||____|____|____|____| VIII.2.2Est-ce que la terre peut-être vendue ? |____||____|____|____|____| VIII.2.3Est-ce que la terre peut-être prêtée ?|____||____|____|____|____|
19. Questionnaire design: distance to servicesDisease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsN°Questions RéponseDistance (en km)Année d’établissementV.1Distance entre le village et l’administration centrale (pour les registres des naissances) V.1.1La situation actuelle|____|____|____||____|____|____|____| V.1.2La situation précédente|____|____|____||____|____|____|____| V.1.3La situation antécédente|____|____|____||____|____|____|____|V.2Distance entre le village et la route praticable par car ou camion toute l’année V.2.1La situation actuelle|____|____|____||____|____|____|____| V.2.2La situation précédente|____|____|____||____|____|____|____| V.2.3La situation antécédente|____|____|____||____|____|____|____|
20. Our measures of property rightsAre (or were) land rights assigned to individuals?Do (or did) cropland transactions occur?Is (or was) pasture access regulated?Is (or was) forest access regulated?Do (or did) cropland transactions require a permit?Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | Results
21. Our measures of public amenitiesRoadBus StopBankElectricityTelephonePublic MarketLivestock MarketPrivate ShopWater WellBorehole Dam Primary SchoolSecondary Sch.Health ClinicChurch Mosque TempleDisease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsDistance (km) from village to nearest:
22. Descriptive statistics: property rights in census yearsDisease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsSource:Table 1: Mean, standard deviation, and sample size for all variables in each year
23. Descriptive statistics: distance to amenitiesDisease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsSource:Table 1: Mean, standard deviation, and sample size for all variables in each year
24. Descriptive statistics: distance to amenities (cont’d)Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsSource:Table 1: Mean, standard deviation, and sample size for all variables in each year
25. Do treated and control villages differ at baseline?Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsPopulation and land rightsTable 2: Mean, standard deviation and difference between treated and control areas in 1975
26. Do treated and control villages differ at baseline?Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsTransport and infrastructureTable 2: Mean, standard deviation and difference between treated and control areas in 1975
27. Do treated and control villages differ at baseline?Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsMarkets and water sourcesTable 2: Mean, standard deviation and difference between treated and control areas in 1975
28. Do treated and control villages differ at baseline?Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsSchooling, health and religious servicesTable 2: Mean, standard deviation and difference between treated and control areas in 1975
29. Our regressions are: Where: I is the institutional outcome of interest for the village, Pop is population of the village, are fixed effects for all villages, and β is the “difference-in-difference” estimator of treatment effects.In Equation (3), Pop is endogenous so we instrument it with the predicted value from equation (1), using 2SLS. Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsRegression specification
30. Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsOLS estimates of equation (1)Dependent variable:Post-75Post-85Annual Data log of village population(1)(2)(3)Treated X Post-75 (1985-2006) 0.33***Treated X Post-85 (1996-2006)0.25***Treated X 19850.24***Treated X 19960.39***Treated X 20060.39***Post-75 (1985-2006)0.09Post-85 (1996-2006)-0.09*Year = 19850.21***Year = 19960.17**Year = 2006-0.11Constant6.68***6.88***6.68***R-squared0.470.450.48Table 3: OLS results for village population on Onchocerciasis treatment status and time
31. Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsOLS estimates of equation (2)Dependent variable:Land rights assigned to individualsLand transactions occurredPasture access is regulatedForest access is regulatedLand transactions require permit (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)Panel A: Post-1975 Treated X Post-75 (1985-2006) 0.020.04***0.020.03*-0.04***Time = 1985-20060.02**0.000.11***0.04***0.04***Constant0.39***0.84***0.23***0.08***0.34*** R-squared0.960.920.830.830.96Panel B: Post-1985 Treated X Post-85 (1996-2006)0.02**0.04***0.05***0.02*-0.05***Time = 1996-20060.02***0.00*0.09***0.05***0.04***Constant0.39***0.85***0.26***0.09***0.34*** R-squared0.960.930.840.840.96Panel C: Annual Data (reported in paper - not shown here)Main results for land rights onlyTable 4: OLS results for property rights on Onchocerciasis treatment status and time
32. Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsOLS estimates of equation (3)Dependent variable:Land rights assigned to individualsLand transactions occurredPasture access is regulatedForest access is regulatedLand transactions require permit (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)Panel A: Post-1975 Population (log)-0.000.02***-0.01-0.000.00Time = 1985-20060.03***0.03***0.13***0.05***0.01**Constant0.39***0.74***0.29***0.10**0.34*** R-squared0.960.930.830.830.95Panel B: Post-1985 Population (log)0.000.02***-0.000.000.00Time = 1996-20060.03***0.03***0.12***0.06***0.02***Constant0.38***0.74***0.27***0.09**0.34*** R-squared0.960.930.840.840.96Panel C: Annual Data (reported in paper - not shown here)Main results for land rights onlyTable 5: OLS results for property rights on village population and time
33. Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | Results2SLS estimates of equation (3)Dependent variable:Land rights assigned to individualsLand transactions occurredPasture access is regulatedForest access is regulatedLand transactions require permit (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)Panel A: Post-1975 Population (log)0.050.13***0.060.08*-0.13**Time = 1985-20060.01-0.010.11***0.03*0.05***Panel B: Post-1985 Population (log)0.08*0.15***0.19**0.09-0.19***Time = 1996-20060.03***0.02***0.11***0.06***0.03***Panel C: Annual Data (reported in paper - not shown here)Main results for land rights onlyTable 6: 2SLS results for property rights on predicted village population and time
34. ConclusionDisease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsOncho-affected villages had been smaller, with similar or less market-oriented institutions before 1975After OCP treatment (after 1975-1985) treated villages: expanded population by 25-33% faster than other villages, became 4-5% more likely to assign property rights to individuals, and 4-5% less likely to require permit before transactionssome of that may have been due to population growth alone, in addition to increased productivity for those already theretreated villages also came to be more closely served by rural amenities, especially public markets and also primary schooling and telephone service (results not shown in slides)
35. So what?Disease, Demography and Institutional DevelopmentMotivation | Data | Method | ResultsWe hope this paper will lead to:Methodological improvementsOther papers using villagers’ recall data to measure social changesReplication of resultsOther papers testing whether disease (control) explains poor (better) social choicesPolicy changeMore evidence to guide those willing to help geographically impaired places get richer