1 August 24, 2015 - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

1

August 24, 2015

The role of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) for ozone and climate protection

Guus Velders

The Netherlands

(

RIVM

)Slide2

Guus Velders

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HFCs offset climate benefits Montreal Protocol

Dual

protection Montreal Protocol: to Ozone layer and Climate change

Already achieved climate benefits 5-6 times larger than Kyoto Protocol targets for 2008-2012

Climate benefits can be offset by projected increases in HFCs

HFC emissions can reach 9-19% of CO

2

emissions in 2050Slide3

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Range of different chemicals

CFCs: fully

halogenatedCFCl3 (CFC-11), CF2Cl2 (CFC-12), etc.Other ozone depleting chemicals:

CF

3

Br,

CF

2

ClBr

(

Halons

– bromine containing species)

Methyl bromide/chloride, methyl chloroform, CCl4Alternatives: HCFCs: partially halogenatedCHF2Cl (HCFC-22), CH3CFCl2, CH3CF2ClAlternatives: HFCs: no chlorineCH2FCF3 (HFC-134a), CHF2CF3 (HFC-125), CH3CF3 (HFC-143a)New: CF3CF=CH2 (HFO-1234yf), CF3CH=CHF (HFO-1234ze)Slide4

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Range of different applications (1)

Refrigeration and air conditioningDomestic, commercial and industrial:

Originally: CFC-11, CFC-12Now: HCFC-22, HFCs, NH3, CO2, hydrocarbonsMobile air conditioningInitially: CFC-12Now (since ~1995): HFC-134a

(all cars)

Foam blowing

: insulation, packaging

Originally: CFCs

Now:

HFCs

, hydrocarbons, othersSlide5

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Range of different applications (2)

Solvent:

Dry cleaning, electronics industryOriginally: CFCs, carbon tetrachloride (CCl4), methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3)Now: - mostly not-in-kind technologies, water, other chemicals

-

HFCs

for some specialized uses

Aerosols

: Metered dose inhalers, spray cans (deodorant, hair)

Originally: CFC-11

Now: hydrocarbons, not-in-kind,

HFCs

(limited uses)

Fire fighting agent in aircraft and high-tech facilitiesOriginally: halons and CCl4Now: Inert gas (e.g. CO2), water, HFCsSlide6

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Ozone depletion through Cl and Br atomsSlide7

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Ozone depletion through Cl and Br atomsSlide8

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Montreal Protocol to protect ozone layer

Montreal Protocol of 1987

Subsequent amendments

Universal ratification

EESC

is a measure of Cl/Br available to destroy ozone

Also important for ozone recovery

CO

2

, CH

4

and N

2O emissionsVery short lived speciesRockets, aircraftVolcanoesGeoengeneeringSlide9

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Montreal Protocol changed chemicals used

Montreal Protocol on Ozone Depleting Substances

It caused a change in chemicals used for refrigeration, AC, foam blowing, cleaning, fire extinguishing, etc.:

CFCs



HCFCs

+ other

techn

.



HFCs + other techn.Well known benefits for ozone layerCFCs, HCFCs, HFCs are all strong greenhouse gasesGlobal Warming Potentials (GWPs):CFCs: 4,700 – 11,000HCFCs: 100 – 2,200HFCs: 130 – 4,200HFOs: <20Slide10

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Well known benefits Montreal Protocol

Large decreases in CFC production (>98%) and emissions (60-90%)

Concentrations also decreasingEmerging evidence of start of ozone layer recoveryFull recovery before 2050, later in polar regions

WMO (

2011)Slide11

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Metrics used here

Impacts on climate expressed byCO2-equivalent

emissions = Emission x GWPsRadiative forcing of climate = Abundance x Radiative eff. (W/m2/ppb)

Impacts on

ozone layer

expressed by

CFC-11-equivalent

emissions

=

Emission x

ODP

s

Eq. Eff. Stratospheric Chlorine = Abundance x Frac. release + time delaySlide12

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Different metrics for ozone depleting chemicals

Ozone layer:ODP-weighed emissionsEquivalent Effective

Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC)Climate change:GWP-weighed emissionsRadiative forcing

WMO (2011)Slide13

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Large climate benefits Montreal Protocol

World avoided

by the Montreal Protocol

Reduction Montreal Protocol of ~11 GtCO

2

-eq/yr

5-6 times Kyoto target

(

incl. offsets: HFCs, ozone depl.)

CO

2

emissions

Velders et al., PNAS, 2007Slide14

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Radiative forcing leading to climate change

Reduction in radiative forcing of ~0.23 Wm

-2

in 2010

about 13% of CO

2

emissions of human activities

~0.1

°

C cooling from Montreal Protocol

(Estrada et al.;

Pretis

and Allen, 2013)

Velders et al., PNAS (2007)

Forcing: delay

of ~10 years

cf

CO

2

emissionsSlide15

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HCFC growth

CFC phaseout globally in 2010 

Accelerated increases in HCFCsDeveloping countries:HCFC consumption increase: 20%/yr (up to 2007)CFC+HCFC

increase: 8%/yr

Starting

point new

scenarios

HFC-23 emissions not

considered

Montzka et al., GRL (2009)Slide16

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HFC: Expected large growth

HCFCsDeveloped countries: controls since 1996

Developing countries: controls since 2013Phaseout in 2030/2040 Much of application demand for refrigeration, AC, heating and thermal-insulating foam production to be met by HFCsCurrent forcing small (<1% of total GHG forcing)Current growth rates of HFCs: 10-15% per yearIncreases directly attributable to Montreal Protocol

Climate effect is a unintended negative side effect

Photo W.S. Velders

Montzka, NOAA/ESRLSlide17

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HFC scenarios

New HFC scenarios developedUnchecked emissions

Extrapolating developed country use patternsBased onIncreased HCFC consumption developing countriesAtmospheric observations of HCFCs and HFCsObserved replacements patterns: HCFCs to HFCsIPCC-SRES: growth rates GDP and populationProvisions Montreal Protocol

Increases

in HFC-134a use in mobile

AC

Saturation

of HFC

consumptionSlide18

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Replacing HCFCs with HFCs

Refrigeration, air conditioning, foam productionReplacement scheme developed countries:HCFC-22

 35% R404A, 55% R410A, 10% NIKHCFC-141b  50% HFC-245fa, 50% NIKHCFC-142b  50% HFC-134a, 50% NIKR404A, R410A: Blends of HFC-32, -125, -134a, -143a

Applied to developing countries

Mobile AC:

HFC-134a

Inhaler: HFC-134a

Foam, aerosol: HFC-365mfc,

HFC-152a (minor use)Slide19

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HFCs offset climate benefits Montreal Protocol

In 2010, CFCs could have reached 15–18 GtCO2-eq yr-1

(in absence of Montreal Protocol)In 2050, HFC emissions: 5.5–8.8 GtCO2-eq yr-1 = 9–19% of global CO2 emissions

Larger in comparison with CO

2

stabilization scenarios from IPCC/AR4

Velders et al., PNAS, 2009Slide20

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Velders

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Offsets in terms of radiative forcing

In 2010, reduction due to Montreal Protocol 0.23 W/m

2

(incl. offsets)

In 2050, forcing HFCs 0.25–0.40

W/m

2

Compared

with

CO

2 (BAU) of 2.9–3.5 W/m2Equivalent to that from 6–13 years of CO2 emis.In 2050, HFC forcing ~ reduction from CO2 stabilization scenarioSlide21

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Montreal Protocol and Kyoto Protocol

Montreal Protocol:Protection of ozone layer (UNEP treaty 1987)Production and consumption

Gases: CFCs, halons, HCFCs, methyl bromide, etc.Phase-out schedule (CFCs 2010, HCFCs 2030/2040)Climate considerations taken into accountVery successful: Universal ratificationKyoto Protocol:Protection of climate (UN treaty 1997)Emissions

Basket of 6 gases: CO

2

, CH

4

, N

2

O,

HFCs

, PFCs, SF

6~5% reduction from 1990 by 2008-2012Emissions reductions of “gases not covered by the Montreal Protocol”Successful?Slide22

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What is happening in the political arena

Amendments

proposed to include HFCs in Montreal ProtocolStrong support

P

roblem

caused by

Montreal Protocol

Instruments available

Climate considerations are in the text of the Montreal

Protocol

Bali decleration by 100+ countries

Strong opposition

HFCs to not destroy ozoneAlready in KyotoFinancial/legal concernsSept. 2013: G20 supports initiatives to use expertise and institutions of Montreal Protocol to phase down HFCsClimate and Clean Air CoalitionSlide23

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What is happening in industry (car makers)

Since 1990s all mobile air-conditioners use

HFC-134a (GWP 1370)In EU: mobile AC directive:

Refrigerant should have GWP <150

From 2011 for new type of vehicles

(derogation

until 12/2012

)

I

n 2013: German car maker still used HFC-134a

 France blocked registration of new Mercedes

Alternatives for

HFC-134a:HFC-1234yf (more or less drop in replacement)CO2 promoted by German EPA (needs redesign of engine)HFC-152a (flammable)

Honeywell (2008)Slide24

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Wide range of HFC lifetimes and GWPs

Fully saturated HFCs:

HFC-32, -125, -134a, -143a, -152aLifetimes: 1 to 50 yr

GWPs: 100 to 4000

Unsaturated HFCs (HFOs):

HFC-1234yf, -1234ze

Lifetimes: days to weeks

GWPs: ~20 or less

If current HFC mix (lifetime 15 yr) were replaced by HFCs with lifetimes less 1 month

 forcing in 2050 less than current HFC forcing

Velders et al., Science, 2012Slide25

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Changes in types of applications

CFCs (1980s) used in very emissive applications

Spray cans, chemical cleaningRelease within a year

HFCs used mostly in slow release applications

Refrigeration, AC: release from 1 – 10

yr

Foams: release > 10

yr

Velders

et al.,

ACP, 2014Slide26

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Velders

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Role of the banks increases

Banks: HFCs present in equipment: refrigerators, AC, foams, etc.

Bank about 7 times

annual

emission

Phaseout

in 2020 instead of 2050

Avoided emission: 91-146 GtCO

2

-eq

Avoided bank: 39- 64 GtCO

2-eqBanks: climate change commitmentChoices:Bank collection, destruction: difficult/costlyAvoid the buildup of the bank: early phaseoutVelders et al.,

ACP, 2014Slide27

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Alternatives to ODSs and HFCs

Replacing high-GWP HFCs with substances with low impact on climate:

Hydrocarbons, CO2, NH3

, unsaturated

HFCs

Alternative technologies

Reducing emissions:

Changing

designs

Capture

and destruction

Low-climate impact alternatives already available commercially in several sectors:

Fiber insulation materials (e.g., mineral wool)Dry powder asthma inhalersHydrocarbons, CO2, ammonia in refrigeration systemsUnsaturated HFCs introduced for foams, aerosols and mobile ACSlide28

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Life cycle climate performance (LCCP)

Important is the total effect on climateDirect climate forcings

GWP-weighted emissions, Radiative forcingIndirect climate forcings Energy used or saved during the application lifespanEnergy used to during manufacturingTotal effect on climate  Life cycle climate performanceAlso important: costs, availability, flammability, toxicity, humidity, etc.Slide29

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Conclusions

Dual protection Montreal Protocol: to Ozone layer and Climate

change:Already achieved climate benefits 5-6 times larger than Kyoto Protocol targets for 2008-2012

Climate

benefits Montreal Protocol can be preserved by limiting HFC growth

Challenge for policymakers: identify how this can be accomplishedSlide30

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Work performed in close collaboration with:

David Fahey (NOAA) John Daniel (NOAA) Steve Andersen (formerly at EPA) Mack McFarland (DuPont)

Susan Solomon (MIT) Thank you for your attentionReferences: - Velders et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 104, 2007

- Velders et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106, 2009

- Velders et al., Science, 335, 922, 2012

- Velders et al., ACP, 14, 2757, 2014

- Velders et al., ACP, 14, 4563, 2014

HFC-134a and its main IR-frequency