the energy system and the regional economy Ruud Egging 24 Oct 2013 CREE meets CenSES Regional energy balance and supply costsprices Impact energyintensive industry output goods prices and consumption levels ID: 644665
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Slide1
AN SCGE model integratingthe energy system andthe regional economy
Ruud Egging
24 Oct 2013
CREE meets
CenSESSlide2
Regional energy balance and supply costs/pricesImpact (energy-intensive) industry output, goods prices and consumption levelseconomic activity & growth, commodity prices & demandIntegrated/consistent projections for energy supply and
demand (rel. to other models)
2
Insights we want from RegPol SCGESlide3
Energy systems model (TIMES-Norway)National macroeconomic model (MODDAG/MSG)Economic-demographic single-region model (PANDA)
SCGE
for regional economies and relations between economy and energy
system (*)
3
RegPol
ModelsSlide4
Regional analysisSpatial-Equilibrium settingBridge between TIMES and PANDAImpact on value creation, energy balance & security, energy
prices
by region, industry type
4
Role of SCGE in RegPolSlide5
7+sokkel regions (later 19 counties + 1)Enough sector detail to capture interactions, substitution and impact of energy system:multiple fuels and energy carriersproduction (sectors) & conversion technologies, incl
.
substitution and efficiency
transportation (infra: use of capital, or endowment)consumption
government
5
Multi-Regional Multi-Sector Multi-PeriodSlide6
Eight Norwegian regions (incl. Sokkel)One outside worldEventually: 19
Fylke
+
Sokkel + surrounding countries
6
Prototype - RegionsSlide7
Reflect energy carrier production and conversion:OIL, GASOil and natural gas (or separate, so that e.g. easier to reflect different developments in prod levels?)ELEElectricity (All inclusive Hydro plus newly installed renewables as scenario assumptions?)
Refineries?
7
Production
Sectors - EnergySlide8
Focus on energy intensive sectorsConstruction (infra)Energy intensive industries, incl. refiningManufacturing otherServices
Eventually: separate
refineries, and
more detail in classes of energy intensiveness?
8
Production
Sectors OtherSlide9
Want to reflect energy transport, general trade and pax transport (el-cars, biofuels..)electricityoil/gasfreightpassengers
9
Transport and tradeSlide10
Trade, also foreign trade, on a regional level, especially for energyCan consider an energy trader using energy transport services and needing capital and other input factors to reflect infrastructure (capacity needs)Pax transport via consumer demand
10
Transport and TradeSlide11
Is not likely to be a main driver of our model in itselfBut need to be able to reflect price, tax & other measures and incentives impact on consumption changes11
Household ConsumptionSlide12
Regional and NationalMeasures, regulations, taxes, incentivesRegional: projects/business cases12
GovernmentsSlide13
Want to capture Energy Exports and Imports county specific:FIN; RUS; SWE, DK, DEU, NLD,
UKD, ROW…?
Levels/Balances:
Exogenous net import/export level?
13
Modeling
Rest of the WorldSlide14
Want to reflect daily load and seasonal variation in supply and demandEventually dynamic model with long-term horizon
14
Time periodsSlide15
Thank you for your attention15