David Farnsworth Regulatory Assistance Project August 1 2018 Richmond VA Energy Trends What is Changing What Makes Electrification Beneficial Some BE Principles 2 Beneficial Electrification BE ID: 723827
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Slide1
Beneficial Electrification: Electrification in the Public Interest
David Farnsworth
Regulatory Assistance Project
August 1, 2018
Richmond, VA
Slide2
Energy Trends: What is Changing?
What Makes Electrification Beneficial?Some BE Principles
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Beneficial Electrification (BE)Slide3
3Slide4
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Fuel Choice
– 1989Wind and solar were not viable economic resources.
The best heat pumps had a coefficient of about 2. Heat pump water heaters were not commonly available.
The best natural gas generating plants had about 42% conversion efficiencySlide5
5
Fuel Choice Today
Wind and solar are coming in at two and three cents per kWh.
Modern heat pumps and heat pump water heaters have COPs of 3 or better in mild climates, and improving results in cold climates. New gas generation is as much as 62% efficient converting gas to electricity when the wind is not blowing and the sun is not shining.
Modern technology enables load control.Slide6
What Makes
Electrification Beneficial?Slide7
7
Is All Electrification Created Equal?
Brattle: “Utility sales could nearly double by 2050”!
Is it all about load growth?Slide8
8
What Makes Electrification Beneficial?
1. Saves Customers Money
Long-Term; New Services
2. Reduces Environmental Impacts
3. Enables Better Grid Management
Three Criteria: Achieve At Least One
Without Adversely Impacting The OthersSlide9
Some Principles for Operationalizing BESlide10
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1. Put Efficiency FirstSlide11
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Efficiency Across Fuel Types
Source: JJ
MCoy
,
”Building “good load” to reduce carbon emissions”, 2016. http://
nwenergy.org
/
wp
-content/uploads/2016/01/Transpo-Electrification-TE-Workpaper-1-25-2016-FINAL.pdf.zipSlide12
12
2. Recognize the Value of Flexible Load for Grid OperationsSlide13
13
Water Heater Loads Are Easy to SpotSlide14
Value of Flexibility for Integrating
Renewable Energy
Avoid Home Charging during these hours
Workplace Charging
33
Source: California ISOSlide15
15
3. Understand the Emissions Effects of Changes in LoadSlide16
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The Grid Is Getting CleanerSlide17
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As The Grid Gets Cleaner, Electric Options Become More Beneficial
Time (years) Slide18
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6. Design Rates to Encourage Beneficial
ElectrificationSlide19
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Rate Design
Rate design should make the
choices
that the
customer
makes to minimize an
individual bill
consistent
with the
choices
the
utility
would make to minimize its
system costs
.Slide20
20
TOU Rates Can Focus On The System Peak Period
Source:
Sacramento Municipal Utility District
https://www.smud.org/en/Rate-Information/Time-of-Day-Rates/Time-of-Day-5-8pm-RateSlide21
21
Price Can Influence
When
EVs Are Charged
Adapted from: M.J. Bradley, 2017
21Slide22
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If It’s Not Beneficial Then Don’t Do It
For electrification to be beneficial, it must satisfy at least one of the three following conditions, without adversely affecting the other two:
1. Saves consumers money over the long run;
2. Enables better grid management; and
3. Reduces negative environmental impacts.Slide23
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Things Can Change Quickly
5
th
Avenue, NYC, Easter
1900
See any
automobiles
?
Source: Tony
SebaSlide24
24
Things Can Change Quickly
Park Avenue, NYC, Easter
1913
See any
horses
?
Source: Tony
SebaSlide25
Given the innovations occurring in today’s electric sector, there are many opportunities for electrification.
Beneficial Electrification sets out a framework and principles to help decision-makers ensure that electrification is beneficial to consumers, the environment and the grid.
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SummarySlide26
Beneficial Electrification: Ensuring Electrification in the Public InterestUtilities Can Get a “LEG” Up with Beneficial Electrification—But Regulators Also Have to be Ready Beneficial Electrification: A Growth Opportunity
Beneficial Electrification: A Key to Better Grid Management Brewing up the Regulation of the Future
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Resources from RAPSlide27
David Farnsworth
Senior Associate