Indicators Nuclear Work Control CFAM Rick Green Duke Energy Nuclear information Corporate Office Charlotte North Carolina USA 2 Plant Units Location Type Turbine MWeUnit Brunswick ID: 551896
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Slide1
Outage Leading
Indicators
Nuclear Work
Control
CFAM: Rick GreenSlide2
Duke Energy Nuclear information
Corporate Office: Charlotte, North Carolina, USA
2
Plant
Units
Location
Type
Turbine
MWe/Unit
Brunswick
2
Southport,
NC, USA
GE Mark 4 BWR
GE
945
Catawba
2
York,
SC, USA
4 loop Westinghouse PWR
Ice
Condenser
GE
1145
Harris
1
Cary,
NC, USA
3 loop
Westinghouse PWR
Westinghouse
928
McGuire
2
Huntersville,
NC, USA
4 loop Westinghouse PWR
Ice
Condenser
Westinghouse
1145
Oconee
3
Seneca,
SC, USA
2 loop
B&W PWR
GE
850
Robinson
1
Hartsville,
SC, USA
3 loop
Westinghouse PWR
Westinghouse
741Slide3
Outage Goal
Execute predictable outages that support top quartile fleet capacity factors and top quartile
cost without sacrificing Personal, Radiological or Nuclear Safety
3Slide4
The Issue
We were frequently finding misalignment between outage scope and goals at our T-3 Readiness Reviews.
Executive awareness of this misalignment was not profound until ~T-2Recovery efforts were often disruptive and counter-productive.Actual outage results were frequently short of goals4Slide5
Solution
Identify variables that are meaningful, measureable, and forecastable.
Integrate these variables and the requirement to forecast them into outage processesEstablish visible and transparent monitoring of these variablesEstablish criteria for grading the variables and responding to unfavorable trends5Slide6
The Outage Box
The objective of the Outage Box is to institute a fleet standard approach to budgeting, scheduling and assigning O&M
and capital work in outages6Budget Duration Top Quartile Goals
-Capacity Factor -Flat O&M budget
-Achievable production
rates
-Top Q Dose
Activities/Day
DoseSlide7
Outage Leading Indicators
7Slide8
Outage Leading Indicator Basis
Production
RED
Historical Norm
321
Predicted (before T-6)
Target (after T-6)
367
In Escalation
Date to return Green
8/10/2015
GREEN
– No known or predicted gap and confidence is high that the goal can be achieved with the current scope.
YELLOW
– A gap exists but can be managed to within normal processes without need for a recover plan:
"Normal processes" apply to the scope selection process from T-14 to T-10
After T-10, yellow may be used only when there are small gaps and this will require Outage CFAM approval.
RED
– A recovery plan is needed to drive improvement efforts, reduce or eliminate scope, or to request a formal change to the impacted goal.
A YELLOW status requires a supporting item on the Pre-Outage Focus List with an owner and due date for the improvement effort.
A RED status requires a supporting item on the Pre-Outage Focus List with an associated recovery plan.
The intent is for there to be no RED indicators after scope freeze.
Any RED indictors after scope freeze shall result in escalation.
8Slide9
The Outage Box: Allocation
Projected
Duration < Approved AllocationProjected Duration = Schedule duration + 4 days marginAllocation template durations are 26 or 29 days (outages are on a short-long repeating pattern)37 extra days are available each year to increase allocations for larger projectsGoal is top quartile Capacity Factor9Slide10
The Outage Box: Budget
Projected Cost ($M)
< Approved Outage Budget ($M)Projected Cost = Cost estimate + $1.5M marginGoal is to freeze outage costs at starting at 2014 levels for at least the next 5 yearsGoal is to have approved outage budgets before the start of scoping for the first outage of the year.10Slide11
The Outage Box: Budget
Established
a “flat” fleet outage annual budget Allocate funds fairly based on template durations rather than total approved allocation (SODA typically added for impacts due to capital projects)Develop a methodology that provides predictable and consistent base outage budgets11Slide12
The Outage Box: Budget
Budget dollars
are first allocated on a fixed amount per template outage day (either 26 day short or 29 day long)A fixed amount (“kicker”) is added to each outage budget to cover some smaller O&M projects (less than $1M)The remaining dollars are distributed to specific outages on a priority bases to cover larger O&M projects12Slide13
The Outage Box: Production
Historical Production Norms vs. Projected Production requirements
Production is measured as average number of activities completed per day from shutdown to Mode 4 up (Mode 2 for BWR).Goal is to align bulk work with proven ability to perform work to minimize bow waves, schedule impacts, and cost.No credit will be given for “promise of better production”. Production targets will only be increased when actual net production has been proven to increase13Slide14
The Outage Box: Production
14Slide15
The Outage Box: Production
A “Production Predictor” spreadsheet has been developed to allow forecasting based on the number of work orders in scope.
7 variables are needed to predict:Number of non work order activities predicted Current number of work orders in scopeTasks/work orderNumber of activities up to the day before breaker openedNumber of activities from day after Mode 4 through end of the outage projectScheduled outage period in whole days from day of shutdown to day Mode 4 reachedHistorical Norm - Net Production (activities/day)15Slide16
Production Predictor
16Slide17
The Outage Box: Dose
Target Dose vs. Projected Dose
Goal is alignment with 5 Year ALARA Plan, obtain full INPO points, and reach top quartile.The target dose should be based on the preliminary dose goal (developed per milestone M-7). The goal should support the site 5 year ALARA plan.17Slide18
The Outage Box: Dose
The projected dose should be the estimate based on the current projected scope of work and historical norms.
If the projected dose does not support full INPO points during the following cycle, then the indicator should be turned RED.18Slide19
Insights
Production is currently the usual limiting variable for outage scoping.
Budget projections are currently not accurate and may be a hidden limit for some sites until shortly before the outage starts.The data is telling us that most sites have allowed base scope to increase outside of template durationsUpon introduction of the leading indicators and the outage box in the Summer of 2015 (especially limitation of scope to max production levels), outage performance has drastically improved.19Slide20
20
Duke Outage
ResultsDuke 2015 Spring Outage Results (Pre-Leading Indicators)Outage
Personal Safety
Personal Safety
Incidents
Incidents
Dose
Dose
Duration
Duration
O&M Cost
O&M Cost
Scope Comp.
Scope Comp.
2015
Brunswick
B222
0
1
0
0
150.00
167.40
36
44.08
48.8
52.6
95
97.3
Catawba C2EOC20
0
2
0
0
65.20
67.80
31
36.40
46.6
43.6
95
97.0
Harris H119
0
0
0
0
53.00
56.80
34
43.65
46
60.7
95
97.1
Robinson R229
0
3
0
1
50.00
52.66
29
44.31
37.5
38.78
95
95.2Slide21
21
Duke Outage
ResultsDuke 2015 Fall Outage Results (Post Leading Indicators)Outage
Personal Safety
Personal Safety
Incidents
Incidents
Dose
Dose
Duration
Duration
O&M Cost
O&M Cost
Scope Comp.
Scope Comp.
2015
McGuire
M2EOC23
0
0
0
0
42.00
36.36
30
27.70
38.5
34
95
98.0
Oconee
O2EOC27
0
0
0
0
65.00
58.70
30
26.29
40.7
34.7
95
98.7
Catawba C1EOC22
0
0
0
0
39.30
35.40
31
26.96
37.2
33.4
95
97.3Slide22
22
Duke Outage
ResultsDuke 2016 Outage Results (Post Leading Indicators)Outage
Personal Safety
Personal Safety
Incidents
Incidents
Dose
Dose
Duration
Duration
O&M Cost
O&M Cost
Scope Comp.
Scope Comp.
2016
Brunswick B121
0
0
0
0
126.00
118.55
28
27.10
36.7
36
95
99.1
McGuire M1EOC24
0
1
0
0
58.60
53.79
29
29
34.9
33
95
98.8
Oconee
O3EOC28
0
0
0
0
48.00
39.76
34
23.67
35.2
29.5
95
98.5
Catawba C2EOC21
0
2
0
0
67.00
69.40
32
28.92
43.7
43.1
95
98.9
Harris H120
0
10048.87462624..25*35.132.9*9599.9 Oconee O1EOC29000136.0023.453422.4438.0528.99599.7
*H120 outage had emergent reactor head repairs performed by
Areva
. Overall duration and cost could have met goals in absence of this.
Duration: 34.29d-10.04d=24.25 days
Cost:
$38.0 - $5.1 = $
32.9Slide23
Questions
23