il Jon Black Lead engineer CIGRE USNC Grid of the Future Symposium ISO New England Net Load Analysis with High Penetration Distributed PV 2 Introduction Installed AC nameplate capacity of distributionconnected PV resources in New England ID: 651081
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Slide1
October 12, 2015 | Chicago, il
Jon Black
Lead engineer
CIGRE USNC Grid of the Future Symposium
ISO New England Net Load Analysis with High Penetration Distributed PVSlide2
2
Introduction
Installed AC nameplate capacity of distribution-connected PV resources in New England
is growing rapidly From 44 MW in 2010 to more than 1,000
MW by mid 2015
This growth is expected to continue
ISO-NE
forecasts that PV
capacity will
total almost 2,500
MW by 2024
Analysis of net load profiles in high PV penetration scenarios can assist in identifying key future system characteristics important to system operators and planners
Net
load profiles
were
developed and analyzed
to
help identify
the
system
impacts
of
distributed
PV, including
higher-than-forecasted
amounts
Analysis
and
key results
of
net
load
simulations
for ISO New England with up to 8 GW of distributed PV are
discussedSlide3
3
Background
There is a growing body of both real-world experience and study results regarding
high penetration PV scenarios and the range of potential impacts they could have on
system planning and system operations
(
some which are listed below)
System operations
Short-term load forecasting
Allocation of sufficient reserves & ramping capabilities
Disturbance tolerance & voltage support
System planning
Long-term load forecasting
Determining future system needs (i.e., generation and/or transmission)
Overall operability of systems with very high penetrations (frequency response and transient stability)Slide4
Future net
load scenarios are based on coincident, historical hourly load and PV production data for the years
2012-2014Top plot illustrates the spatial distribution of PV capacity deployed in the region at the end of 2014PV production data accessed via
Solectria Renewables’ SolrenView web-based monitoring system*
665 PV sites totaling 82
MW
ac
(locations shown in bottom plot)
Normalized PV profiles developed for each New England state, blended into a regional profile which was then “
upscaled
” to each PV scenarioExisting PV system design and technology trends are not anticipated to change significantly over the next decade. It is therefore assumed that the upscaling of these profiles yields a reasonable estimate of future profiles associated with larger PV fleets that is adequate for simulation purposes
4
Methodology
*Accessed
via
http://www.solrenview.com
/
Slide5
Fourth highest ISO-NE peak load day ever
As PV penetrations become higher:The timing of peak net loads (
blue dots) becomes later in afternoon/evening
Each successively larger PV scenario contributes less to serving summer peak net loads (which now occur later in the day), due
to the setting of the sun
5
Summer Season Net Load Profile
Friday, July
19, 2013 Slide6
PV does not reduce winter peak
Load reductions from PV can be significant during midday hours on sunny winter daysHigh PV penetrations will increase the need for ramping capability throughout
sunlight hours
6
Winter Season Net Load Profile
Tuesday, January 7, 2014Slide7
Profile sometimes referred to as the “Duck Curve”
Lowest loads often occur on weekend days during spring/autumn and low
demand for heating/coolingIncreased PV will displace significant amounts of synchronous generation
Potential minimum generation emergency events during midday hours (minimum load hours are shown in
green
)
7
Shoulder Season Net Load Profile
Sunday, April 20, 2014Slide8
Timing and Magnitude of Daily Summer Peaks
Scenarios Shown: No PV, 1 GW PV, 2 GW PV, 4 GW PV, 6 GW PV, 8 GW PV
8Slide9
9
Hourly Net Load Ramp RatesApril/May Non-Holiday Weekends
Boxplot shows
the distribution of hourly
net load
ramps without PV (
red
boxes), with 4 GW PV (
green
boxes), and with 8 GW PV (
blue
boxes
)
Large
amounts of distributed PV cause increased net load ramping and a higher frequency of larger magnitude ramps, especially on days exhibiting both high irradiance and low loadSlide10
10
Conclusions
Results highlight significant changes to the overall system and some of the accompanying challenges that would need to be addressed in order to efficiently and reliably integrate the amounts of PV
evaluated:Understanding the effect on the timing and magnitude of summer peak loads;
Ensuring
there is sufficient ramping/cycling capability among non-PV resources to serve the increasingly volatile net
loads;
The
need to mitigate potential reliability issues associated with significant displacement of synchronous generation and increased potential for minimum generation
events
S
imilar analyses on sub-hourly data could yield additional insights, such as potential impacts on regulation requirements