Theory of Change A Blueprint for Evaluation Presentation Overview Introduction to Theory of Change Building a Theory of Change Why is Theory of Change Important Testing competing Theories of Change ID: 766325
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Theory of Change: A Blueprint for Evaluation
Presentation OverviewIntroduction to Theory of ChangeBuilding a Theory of Change Why is Theory of Change Important? Testing competing Theories of Change
Presentation OverviewIntroduction to Theory of Change Building a Theory of Change Why is Theory of Change Important? Testing competing Theories of Change
DefinitionTheory of change is an on-going process of reflection to explore change and how it happens – and what that means in a particular context, sector, and/or group of people. ToC thinking Structured way of thinking about change and impact organizations would like to achieve Integrated approach to programme design, implementation, M+E, and communication Theory of Change (ToC)
Causal Hypothesis Q: How do I expect results to be achieved?A: If [inputs] and [activities] produce [outputs] this should lead to [outcomes] which will ultimately contribute to [goal ].
Presentation OverviewIntroduction to Theory of Change Building a Theory of Change Why is Theory of Change Important? Testing competing Theories of Change
Theory of Change: Main Questions What is the programme? What outcomes does the programme aim to achieve? What intermediate steps lead to those outcomes?What assumptions are associated with each link in the causal chain? How can we measure outcomes?
What is the Programme? Programme Design Relevance Target Audience Social and Political Content Potential Threats and Challenges
Incentives for Immunization Theory of Change: Define the Programme Immunization Camps
I N C R E A S E D I M M U N I Z A T I ON Theory of Change: Define the Outcomes Incentives for Immunization Immunization Camps
I N C R E A S E D I M M U N I Z A T I ON Theory of Change: Intermediate Steps Incentives for Immunization Parents bring children to the camps Immunization Camps
I N C R E A S E D I M M U N I Z A T I ON Theory of Change: Assumptions Incentives for Immunization Parents bring children to the camps Immunization Camps Camp provides immunizations Parents value incentives Parents trust camps Incentives paid regularly
ToC: School-Based Malaria Intervention Malaria Intervention Assumptions Assumptions Children adhere to full med regime Higher Test Scores Test accurately measures knowledge Increased School Attendance Reduced Clinical Attacks Reduced Asymptomatic Parasitemia Reduced Anemia Improved Cognition Increased Concentration I N C R E A S E D K N O W L E D G E
Theory of Change Levels What we do as a part of the programme - deliver, teach, offer loans, etc. What are the resources used –funds, staff, equipment, curriculum, all materials. Tangible products or services produced as a result of the activities - usually can be counted. Short-term behavioral changes that result from the outputs - preventive health habits, usage of tablets. Long-term changes that result from outcomes – the result of the programme.
Quantitative and qualitativeStandard of comparison (i.e. baseline v. endline, defining “high-quality,” etc.)SMART S pecific - Ask (answer) one question at a time M easurable - Quantifiable, accurate, unbiased, sensitiveAchievable - Is this impact realistic? Are the goals attainable? R elevant - Is this the most relevant programme indicator given the needs T ime-bound - Has boundaries. When’s the deadline ? G ood indicators
Good Indicators Does the definition adequately describe our concept? Can the variable be easily measured? Can we collect data to measure the variable?
Increased Immunization Coverage Brainstorm in groups: Does the definition adequately describe our concept? Can the variable be easily measured? Can we collect data to measure the variable?
Log Frame Objectives Hierarchy Indicators Sources of Verification Assumptions / Threats Impact (Goal/ Overall objective) Increased immunization Immunization rates Household survey Adequate vaccine supply, parents do not have second thoughts Outcome (Project Objective) Parents attend the immunization camps repeatedly Follow-up attendance Household survey; Immunization card Parents have the time to come Outputs Immunization camps are reliably open; Incentives are delivered Number of kg bags delivered; Camp schedules Random audits; Camp administrative data Nurses/assistants will show up to camp and give out incentives properly Inputs (Activities) Camps + incentives are established Camps are built, functional Random audits of camps Sufficient materials, funding, manpower Needs assessment Process evaluation Impact evaluation
What is the best time to create a theory of change?Before commencing an evaluation Before data analysis During the programme design Before data collection
Presentation OverviewIntroduction to Theory of Change Building a Theory of Change Why is Theory of Change Important? Testing competing Theories of Change
Why is theory of change important?Discussion
Solving the Black Box Problem Intervention Intervention design/Inputs Final outcome No increase in full immunization Low immunization rates Needs Assessment Black Box
Identifying Theory F ailure vs. Implementation Failure Successful intervention Implementation failure Theory failure
Example What is it? Components Assumptions Conclusion Why is Theory of Change Important For evaluators, reminds us to consider process For programmers , it helps us be results oriented
What is the Main Criticism of Theory of Change? Over-simplify the programme Long-term effects not considered Unintended consequences not considered Does not consider that programme to outcomes is not uni -directional
Presentation OverviewIntroduction to Theory of Change Building a Theory of Change Why is Theory of Change Important? Testing competing Theories of Change
Testing Competing Theories of Change Different disciplines have different theoriesPublic Health Education Economics Anthropology Sociology Political Science
Testing Competing Theories of Change Toilets in Schools Children missing school due to waterborne disease Children use toilets Increased School Attendance Less waterborne disease Girls feel more comfortable coming to school Female dropout rate decreases Girls missing school due to lack of toilets Girls use toilets
Theory of Change: Main QuestionsWhat is the programme? What outcomes does the programme aim to achieve? What intermediate steps lead to those outcomes? What assumptions are associated with each link in the causal chain?How can we measure outcomes?