Election Lessons

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Election Lessons




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Presentations text content in Election Lessons

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Election Lessons

from theCouncil for Economic Education

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Council for Economic Education

122 East 42nd Street, Suite 2600New York, NY 10168Phone: 212-730-7007 or 1-800-338-1192Fax: 212-730-1793 www.councilforeconed.org

CEE MISSION

The Council for Economic Education (CEE) is the leading organization in the United States that focuses on the economic and financial education of students from kindergarten through high school. For the past 60 years, our mission has been to instill in young people the fourth “R”—a real-world understanding of economics and personal finance. It is only by acquiring economic and financial literacy that children can learn that there are better options for a life well lived, will be able to see opportunity on their horizon line and, ultimately, can grow into successful and productive adults capable of making informed and responsible decisions.

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LESSON 8: ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONSVISUALS

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Unemployment Rate: The percentage of people in the labor force who are unemployedInflation Rate: The percentage increase in the overall price levelReal GDP: The value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a year, expressed in terms of constant dollars.Two Statistics Based on These IndicatorsMisery Index: The sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate.Growth rate in real GDP per capita: The percentage change in the real GDP per person.

LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

VISUAL 8.1

SOME KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Election Lessons © Council for Economic Education, New York, NY

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A Real GDP per capita growth rule:The incumbent party usually wins if…The growth rate of real GDP per capita is greater than 0% during the year of the election

VISUAL 8.2AN ECONOMIC RULE THAT DOES NOT WORK WELL

Election Lessons © Council for Economic Education, New York, NY

LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

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A Real GDP per capita growth rule:The incumbent party usually wins if…The growth rate of Real GDP per capita is greater than or equal to 2.5% during the year of the election.

A Misery Index rule:The incumbent party usually wins if…The Misery Index has not increased from the year prior to the election.

VISUAL 8.3SOME ECONOMIC RULES THAT WORK WELL

Election Lessons © Council for Economic Education, New York, NY

LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

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A Guaranteed Loss Rule:The incumbent party has always lost if…The Real GDP per capita growth is less than 2.5%ANDThe misery index has increased from the year prior to the election to the year of the election.

VISUAL 8.3SOME ECONOMIC RULES THAT WORK WELL

Election Lessons © Council for Economic Education, New York, NY

LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

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VISUAL FOR STEP 16 – Predicting the Next Election

Election Lessons © Council for Economic Education, New York, NY

LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Year

Growth

in Real GDP per Capita

Unemployment

Rate

Inflation Rate

Misery Index

Growth

Rule

Misery Index Rule

Candidates

Incumbent Party Wins or Loses?

2009

-4.3

9.3

-0.4

8.9

2010

2.2

9.6

1.6

11.2

2011

0.9

8.9

3.2

12.1

2012

May 2012 Data

???

1.1

???

8.2

???

1.7

???

9.9

Romney

Win

Obama

Win

Obama

vs. Romney

???

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