TURN OUT 2018 Derrick Johnson President and CEO NAACP Jamal R Watkins Vice President for Civic Engagement NAACP I Agree Ice Breaker 1 William Jefferson Bill Clinton was the first Black President of the United States of America ID: 719700
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Slide1
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF COLORED PEOPLE
TURN OUT 2018
Derrick Johnson,
President and CEO, NAACPJamal R. WatkinsVice President for Civic Engagement, NAACPSlide2
I
Agree (Ice Breaker) …
1. William Jefferson (Bill) Clinton was the first Black President of the United States of America.
2.
I vote but sometimes I know it did not make a difference.
3.
The elected officials in my city represent me, my family and my community.
4.
There is no real different between a politician who is Republican and a politician who is a Democrat.
5.
Voting is not enough.
6.
The census and redistricting are so complicated that we cannot make them work for our communities.
7. We need to dismantle the entire system and start over.Slide3
OverviewSlide4
2018
MID-TERM ELECTIONS
2019
FAIR LINES (REDISTRICTING)
STAND UP AND BE COUNTED – CENSUS 2020 GROUND GAME
2020
59th QUADRENNIAL U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
2020 DECENNIAL CENSUS
2021
FAIR LINES (REDISTRICTING)
2022
MID-TERM ELECTIONS
To avoid a Constitutional
Convention (28 States so far out of the needed 34),
to ensure that our communities are being fully supported and to move a winning agenda we have to reclaim our states.Slide5
Building Political Power Through Civic & Unit Engagement Alignment
Elections
Have Consequences
5 Years and Beyond
Membership Is Power
Build Back PowerSlide6Slide7
NAACP
Member Density By StateSlide8
NAACP By The Numbers:
2,200
Units that house our most dedicated volunteers.500 Youth and College units for members under the age of 25.
47
States where we have a field presence.1 Million activist who we can mobilize both online and offline.
400k
Followers on Twitter.
500k
Followers on Facebook.
109
Year old membership based advocacy organization. Slide9
NAACP
Member Density By State with Black PopulationSlide10
Theory of
the Case
Grow ACandidate &Operative PipelineSlide11
The ContextSlide12
More than $4.4 billion was spent on television by the campaigns and independent expenditures to define the candidates.
But research consistently shows
person-to-person contact most effective: Increases average margin by 6 points for the endorsed candidate (Source: AFL-CIO Data and Analytics Department).GOTV canvass contacts increase turnout more than mail or TV (
Source: Yale ISPS).A Face-to-Face Request Is
34 Times More Successful Than an Email (Source: Harvard Business Review).
VOTES GAINED PER MARGINAL DOLLAR
1. Person to Person Most EffectiveSlide13
Data Analysis and Deliverables
Phase I: Geographic Selection
What are the geographies (states, counties, regions) where voter registration and mobilization efforts can have a significant impact on enhancing political influence? For all geographies:
Determine Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP) and voter registration levels for African American and non-African American populations
Determine voter registration deficit, if any, for the African American community
Set voter registration goals designed to achieve parity
Determine past and projected future turnout levels of African American and non-African American registered voters.
Determine the average turnout deficit, if any, for the African American community
Set turnout goals designed to achieve parity
Project the impact on political power and influence by the African American community if parity in voter registration and turnout is achieved
Select the most promising geographies
2. Geo
Targeting (Where to go?)Slide14
14
Area does not correspond to number of registrants in cohort
MODERATE PROPENSITY,
UNLIKELY AFRICAN AMERICAN
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
6560
5550454035
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
VOTE PROPENSITY
AFRICAN AMERICAN PROBABILITY
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
HIGH PROPENSITY,
UNLIKELY AFRICAN AMERICAN
LOW PROPENSITY,
UNLIKELY AFRICAN AMERICAN
HIGH PROPENSITY,
LIKELY AFRICAN AMERICAN
MODERATE PROPENSITY,
LIKELY AFRICAN AMERICAN
LOW PROPENSITY,
LIKELY AFRICAN AMERICAN
TREATMENT UNIVERSES
Phase II: Community Organizing Tool – Modeling
Data for Infrequent Voters
Note: Treatment universe definitions, such as the lower threshold for African American Probability scores, will likely vary by geography.
3. Voter Population
Targeting (Who to go after?) Slide15
2010:
Majority of new births are people of color
2032:
Majority of people age 20-34 are people of color
2044:
Majority of all Americans are people of color
4.
Rising
New Majority by 2044
Source:
Brookings Institute Slide16
5
. Elections Are Racialized: Clinton and Trump, VA, NJ, AL
Racial and Economic Justice
Clinton
Source: National Exit PollsTrumpSlide17
Midterm turnout is consistently older, whiter, and more conservative than Presidential elections.
Increasing concentration of Democratic voters in urban areas.
Increased voter suppression in most Battleground States. Strong(ish) economy expected to continue. Progressive enthusiasm and engagement on the rise. Trump, Republican disapproval is at an all time low.
6
. 2018 Midterm Election CycleSlide18
Control of the US SenateSlide19
Democrats need to pick up 24 seats, net, to reach 218.
DCCC has identified 79 pick-up opportunities; 42 stand out (Prior to Red to Blue Program Expansion)Democrats lost the 42 districts by 13% in 2016, but are 1 point up in the current generic among registered voters.
Democrats lost the additional 37 districts by 20%, but trail in in the current generic among registered voters.Districts fall into five groups determined by the most salient characteristics of each district.Source: AFL-CIO Data and Analytics Department House of Representatives
State
Top
42 Opportunities
Next 37
Opportunities
California
7
2
New York
3
4
Florida
2
4
Michigan
2
3
Illinois
4
0
Pennsylvania
4
0
New Jersey
3
1
Ohio
1
3
North Carolina
0
4
Texas
3
0
Virginia
0
3Slide20
Top
42 Opportunities
Next 37 Opportunities
#
HRC Won
H
2014
%
H
2016 %
HRC 2016 %#HRC Won
H 2014 %H 2016 %HRC 2016 %
Latino
13
13
-18.0
-8.9
7.6
3
0
-13.7
-13.3
-7.1
High
Education
16
8
-21.0
-13.3
1.0
4
0
-28.6-23.7
-11.9Blue Collar
101-22.7
-13.9-8.219
0-24.4-20.9
-16.4
African American0
3
0NA-11.3
-17.0Other3
1
-20.9-19.7-3.380-28.6
-22.7
-13.2
Total
42
23
-20.5
-12.8
-0.3
37
0
-23.5
-20.2
-14.5
House of Representative (Key Districts)Slide21
Governor’s Races
An energized Democratic base could turn out in record numbers, matched by a backlash among highly educated white women whose votes are usually Republican (See NJ, VA, AL).
Half of the 26 Republican-held seats are up for grabs.
A surge of Latino Voters that could swamp Republican candidates in battleground states like Florida and Colorado, put New Mexico’s governor’s race even further out of reach and make Arizona’s competitive.
States to watch: NV, WI, MN, CO, NY, PA, ME, CT, OH, MI, FL, NH, IL, MD, GA, SC. Slide22
State Legislative Chambers
These are the projected 17 battleground chambers in 2018
.Democratic Party - Alaska House of RepresentativesDemocratic Party - Colorado House of RepresentativesRepublican Party - Colorado State SenateDemocratic Party - Connecticut House of Representatives
Democratic Party - Connecticut State SenateDemocratic Party - Delaware State Senate
Republican Party - Florida State SenateDemocratic Party - Maine House of RepresentativesRepublican Party - Maine State Senate
Republican Party
- Minnesota House of Representatives
Democratic Party - Nevada State Senate
Republican Party
- NH House of Representatives
Republican Party - NH State SenateDemocratic Party - New Mexico House of Representatives
Republican Party - New York State SenateDemocratic Party - Washington House of RepresentativesDemocratic Party - Washington State Senate
As of April 4, 2018:There are 99 state legislative chambers throughout the United States.87 of them are holding general elections in 2018. Republicans control 32 of the country's 50 state legislatures.
Democrats control 14 of the country's 50 state legislatures.
4 legislatures are split between the parties.
Heading into the 2018 elections, Democrats control 10 battleground chambers and Republicans control seven.Slide23
7
. The Billionaires AreOn A Mission
(To win and take us all out!) Racial and Economic JusticeSlide24
Meet Chuck & Dave
Photo credit: kochnews.com, 2016Slide25
Racial and Economic Justice
The Kochs
Have Been Organizing For 30 Years Committed $400 Million for 2018 Slide26
Legislators
Corporate Donors
Individual and Foundation
al
Donors
Americans for Prosperity
Grassroots Groups
National Think
T
anks
State Policy Network
(SPN)
Right Wing
Media Outlets
Racial and Economic JusticeSlide27
Program
FrameworkSlide28
Our Civic Engagement Mission
1. PRODUCE WINNING OFFENSIVE AGENDA:Move from legislative and electoral defense to offense that produces key wins (Data driven program).
2. OPTIMIZE INCREASED CAPACITY OVER TIME:Use what we build cycle to cycle to win legislative breakthroughs and grow political power.3. CREATE SUSTAINABLE MAJORITY:
Develop long term structural and strategic advantages to sustain wins.Slide29
Long Term Strategic Imperatives:
5-Year Game Plan: We are preparing a strategic, cohesive 5-year civic engagement plan that will span the 2018 midterms, 2020 Census and presidential election, and subsequent redistricting.
Our ability to mobilize for these milestones will define the policy landscape for years to come.Focus on infrequent voters: A critical component of our civic engagement strategy is mobilizing infrequent voters – individuals who vote in presidential elections but don’t always show up for midterms. We are employing grassroots activism – working with our 2,200 units and labor partners on the ground – and behavioral science research to make an impact come November.
This strategy is developed through a collaboration with GSSA and other partners.Slide30
CAPACITY STRATEGY: Develop Strategic Long-Term Data Driven Program Capable of Building Power.Slide31
C. TARGETED STRATEGY: Build Sustainable Legislative/Electoral Operation(s) in battleground states, able to move NAACP members and allies into action.
Direct Voter Contact Programs Slide32
B. 50 STATE STRATEGY: Create and Electoral and Legislative Approach In Every State Driven by an Agenda Capable of Delivering a Political Demand.Slide33
2018 Battleground States
Florida
Georgia
Ohio
Pennsylvania
North Carolina
Michigan
Wisconsin (Milwaukee)
Nevada (Las Vegas)
Minnesota (Twin Cities)
Missouri
Indiana
Tennessee
Connecticut
Alabama
Maryland
Mississippi
The NAACP
has members
in
ALL
STATES
. However,
the
states
listed here represent
where we will have
more potential opportunities to
win elections through simply mobilizing
Black
Voters. Slide34
Mobilization/GOTVSlide35
EVERYTHING BEGINS WITH
MOBILIZATIONSlide36
How did President Obama win?
FIELD
+
The VANThe
Voter Action Network (VAN System) is a national database used to track and identify voters.President Obama used it effectively to mobilize his voters.The NAACP will use this same VAN system to mobilize our voters in our neighborhoods.Slide37
Level 4 -
Allows for members to engage at the highest level by taking the goals and objectives and building their own campaign events with or without staff support.
Level 3 - Allows for members to engage by directing actions that move forward with people proactively over a continuum of time.Level 2 - Allows for members to engage more intensely by adding a human interaction component and more time.Level 1 - Allows for members to engage in actions that require minimal time commitment.
ACTIVISM ENGAGEMENT PYRAMID Slide38
How do we move our people?
Targeting - Using specific metrics to build the universe to mobilize by county/precincts.
Data Collection - Set up mechanisms to make asks of the targets to stand with you as a stakeholder (voter/volunteer/activist/member) and collect key information for future communications (Issue ID/Other key data points/Phone/Email).Communication and Digital - Maximize electronic communication – Facebook, Email, Text Messages; Utilize direct Mail – Determine what type of mail program is useful; and Phone Banking - Run phone programs that target members and the general public.
Direct Voter Contact
- Engage members and the general public through direct contact.Ladder of Engagement - Build internal and external opportunities for activism and volunteerism. Examples, Ask contacts to volunteer to register a set number of new voters; Ask contacts to recruit friends & neighbors; Ask members to commit to walks, phone banking and GOTV efforts.
Mobilization:
GuidepostSlide39
Effective MOBILIZATION
Tools
MAIL, EMAIL, SOCIAL MEDIA AND DIGITAL
LEAFLETS, FLIERS, HANDBILLS AND POSTERS
CANVASS AND PHONE BANK SCRIPTSSlide40
PERSON-TO-PERSON
CONVERSATIONSSlide41
DOOR-TO-DOORSlide42
Data from the VAN and Voter Registration efforts define our universe …Slide43
We will create blended walk
list! Slide44
Core Capacities
Field—targeting/analytics, organizing, canvass, mobilization, online/offline engagement, acquisitions
Leadership Development and Base Building – constituency engagement, activist development, progressive engagement, volunteerism; and, candidate recruitment and development. Communications and Digital —this includes but is not limited to:Earned Media—Television, Radio, Online (Blogs, Vlogs, etc.);Paid Media—Television, Radio, Signage, Online (Blogs,
Vlogs, etc.);New Media—Smart Phone Applications and Mobile Sites; and
Social/Engagement Media—Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, SnapChat, etc.Advocacy—grassroots and grasstops lobbying, online petitions, etc.
Policy
—state and local Progressive policy model development
Research
—electoral and issue campaign research to identify targets, develop and refine communications, and inform field workSlide45
Infrastructure
Legal Structure
- this includes but is not limited to:Tax Status—501C3, 501C4, PAC, Political party entity, Union; Governance—Effective and focused Board of Directors, shared vision, volunteer Board, membership base; andGeography—International, national, state and local
Staffing Structure - diverse and representative leadership and staff with clear roles and responsibilities for developing and executing organizational programs; staff development opportunities for leadership development.
Revenue Models - including effective field-based fundraising models, service-based models of recurring revenue, foundation and individual donor recruitment, co-op models of economic democracy for organizations to develop and control community resources with revenue reinvested in the communities, etc.Technology - servers, computers, equipment, etc.Fixed Assets - property, vehicles, etc.