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A regional-to-global perspective on A regional-to-global perspective on

A regional-to-global perspective on - PowerPoint Presentation

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A regional-to-global perspective on - PPT Presentation

a ttaining the new US ozone NAAQS Panel on Meeting the New Ozone Standard Energy Summit 2015 University of Wisconsin Madison WI October 13 2015 Arlene M Fiore Acknowledgments ID: 553617

background ozone ppb regional ozone background regional ppb fiore climate emissions naaqs air observed 2011 nox 2015 2009 standard

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Slide1

A regional-to-global perspective on

attaining the new U.S. ozone NAAQS

Panel on Meeting the New Ozone Standard

Energy Summit 2015University of Wisconsin, Madison, WIOctober 13, 2015

Arlene M. Fiore

Acknowledgments: George Milly, Lukas Valin (LDEO)Harald Rieder (U Graz, Austria)Lok Lamsal (NASA GSFC)

83520601 Slide2

Ground-level O

3 is produced photochemically in the atmosphere, from both natural and anthropogenic sourcesO

3

+

CH

4

NMVOC

NO

x

Fuel local-to-regional ozone

pollution episodes

Raises background ozone levels

Observed surface ozone includes background plus any ozone produced from local-to-regional emissionsSlide3

1950s

Present

1980s

NMVOCs

+ NO

x

+ CH

4

??

U.S. o

zone abatement strategies evolve with our understanding of the O

3 problem

Abatement

Strategy:

O

3

smog recognized

as an URBAN problem:

Los Angeles,

Haagen-Smit identifies

chemical mechanism

Smog considered

REGIONAL problem;

role of biogenic

VOCs discovered

A GLOBAL perspective:

role of intercontinental

transport, background

Slide4

Lower O3 NAAQS level likely expands non-attainment regions

Cooper et al., Science, 20152011-2013 ozone design values at EPA approved ozone monitoring sitesSlide5

Cleaner U.S. air is visible from spaceSatellite (OMI) tropospheric NO

2 columns c/o Lok Lamsal

& Bryan Duncan, NASA GSFCNew OMI NO2 website:

airquality.gsfc.nasa.govSlide6

Tropospheric column NO2 higher on weekdays vs. weekends, mainly attributable to weekly cycle in diesel NOx emissions

WEEKEND WEEKDAY

Mid-2000s

Following NOx emission controls, current weekday tropospheric NO2 columns look more like past weekends

Early 2010s

Luke

ValinLDEO,in prep.Slide7

Similar patterns occur in surface ozone90th% summer afternoon surface ozone (U.S. EPA AQS)

 Additional diesel NOx controls would lower weekday surface ozone (and tropospheric NO2 columns) Implies regional

NOx-sensitive ozone production

WEEKDAYWEEKENDLuke ValinLDEO,in prep.

Mid-

2000s

Early

2010sSlide8

2001

-2005

2021

-2025(RCP8.5)

# DAYS

OBSERVED

OBSERVED + MODELED

Future projections in the context of the revised O

3

NAAQS

Number of summer (JJA) days with MDA8 O3

> 70 ppb at CASTNet sitesAPPROACH1. Use chemistry-

climate model (GFDL CM3) to estimate regional-scale changes2. Apply modeled changes at each percentile to observed distribution at each site

Rieder

et al., in prep, 2015

40% decrease in EUS

NO

x

emissions over near-term (2020-2005) leads to 3 or fewer summer days with MDA8 O

3

> 70 ppb

at all but 5 sites

?Slide9

Future projections in the context of the revised O3 NAAQS: a monitoring site in Dodge County, WI

2001-2005OBSERVED

2021-2025OBSERVED + MODEL (RCP8.5) REGIONAL CHANGES AT EACH PERCENTILE

 Moving from 75 to 70 ppb doubles # days > NAAQS levelProjected regional-scale O3 decreases suggest near-term attainment of new standard possibleH. RiederSlide10

The “tightening vise”

of ozone management

Ozone concentration

Historical

Future

(alternate view)

Hemispheric

background

Regional

Local

Standard

Future

Keating, T. J., J. J. West, and A. Farrell (2004) Prospects for international management of intercontinental air pollutant transport, in A.

Stohl

, Ed.,

Intercontinental Transport of Air Pollution

, Springer, p. 295-320.

Future may require concerted efforts to lower backgroundSlide11

Reducing methane lowers hemispheric background

ozone (plus climate co-benefit)

~ 1 ppb

across the northern hemisphere

[Fiore et al., JGR, 2009; TF HTAP, 2007, 2010; Wild et al., ACP, 2012]

7700-400,000 annual avoided cardiopulmonary

premature mortalities in the N.

H

emisphere uncertainty in concentration-response relationship only

[Casper Anenberg

et al., ES&T, 2009]

Range

over

18 models

Global

mean

a

voided warming

in

2050 (

°C

)

[WMO/UNEP, 2011]

CLIMATE

OZONE AIR QUALITY

Benefits of ~25% decrease in global

anthropogenic methane

emissions

North

America

Europe

East

Asia

South

AsiaSlide12

E

stimated in a model (GEOS-

Chem

) by turning off N. American anthropogenic emissions

Background over the U.S.A. is highest in the west

(at altitude) and in spring

Latest background estimates

(recent years,

higher resolution) support general conclusions; emphasis now on episodic background events

e.g., Wu et al., 2008; Wang et al., 2009; McDonald-

Bueller

et al. 2011; Mueller & Mallard, 2011; Zhang et al., 2011; 2014; Emery et al., 2012; Lin et al., 2012ab; Fiore et al.,

AtmEnv, 2014

Summer 1995 afternoon average background ozone

[Fiore et al., JGR, 2002]

12

20

28

37

Ozone (ppb)

[Fiore et al., JGR,

2003]

Monthly afternoon mean ozone

o

ver the Northeast U.S.A., 2001

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Month of 2001

Ozone (ppb)

OBS.

Model

BackgroundSlide13

Setting achievable standards requires accurate knowledge of background levels

120 ppb 1979

1-hr avg

84 ppb1997 8-hr

75

ppb 2008 8-hr

40

60

80

100

120

O

3

(

ppbv

)

20

U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard

for O

3

has evolved over time

typical

average

U.S. “

background”

(model estimates)

[

Fiore et al., 2003;

Wang et al., 2009;

Zhang et al., 2011]

“Allowable”

O

3

produced from U.S. anthrop. sources (“cushion”)

Lowering U.S

. O

3

NAAQS

levels implies

thinning

cushion

between regionally produced O

3

and background

background

events over WUS

[e.g., Lin et al., 2012ab]

70

ppb

2015

8-hr

Adapted from D.J. Jacob & NAS, 2009 Slide14

An Air Quality Management Challenge: NATURAL EVENTS How to detect and attribute accurately?

Fiore et al., EM 2014 (NASA AQAST special issue)

Examples of how

satellite, in situ measurements and models can be combined to detect and attribute exceptional eventsWILDFIRES

STRATOSPHERICINTRUSIONSSlide15

Downward ozone trend as EUS

NO

x

emission controls are implementedDecreasing NOx emissions reduces sensitivity of O

3 to temperature; continued controls should guard against climate-driven increases

[e.g., Bloomer et al., 2009; Rasmussen et al., 2012; Brown-Steiner et al., 2015]Observations at U.S. EPA CASTNet site Penn State, PA 41N, 78W, 378mJuly mean MDA8 O3 and July mean daily maximum temperature

An Air Quality Management Challenge: CLIMATE CHANGEWill warmer temperatures worsen O3 pollution?

G.

Milly

Figure 6a of Fiore, Naik

, Leibensperger

, JAWMA, 2015Slide16

Attaining the new U.S. ozone NAAQS: A regional-to-global perspectiveContinued

regional NOx decreases should facilitate attainment with new standard (NOx-sensitive ozone production) over the eastern U.S.A.Background contributions to U.S. surface ozone vary in space and timeExceptional events may become more common with respect to a tighter standard and under climate change (e.g., wildfires)Trans-boundary transport could increase if foreign emissions rise (see next panel) Methane emission reductions would lower hemispheric background ozone levels (and also decrease climate forcing)