Higher Ambitions in a Modern Labour Market - PowerPoint Presentation

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Higher Ambitions in a Modern Labour MarketChallenges and opportunities

Alison Wolf

King’s College LondonSlide2

Today’s World

Huge expansion in education – in the developed world, full-time to 18 the norm, in developed and developing, very rapid growth in higher education

Major changes in structure of labour market

In most developed countries, disappearance of the youth labour marketSlide3

Disappearance of the youth labour market for 16-18 year olds

Recent in the UK which maintained teenage employment at high levels longer than most other European countriesSlide4

Raising of participation age

But huge increases pre-dated this and reflect the

labour

market and apprenticeship contextSlide5
Slide6

Part-time education shrinks among the youngSlide7

Best predictor of being in employment next year is being in employment this year

Young people are always the ones who are most vulnerable to unemployment. Ratio of youth to adult unemployment is almost always large, though it varies among countries

Getting the first job is critical

But problems for today’s young compounded not only by shrinkage in ‘proper’ apprenticeships but also by shrinkage of the ‘Saturday job’Slide8

The ‘hourglass economy’

Post-war, huge increase in professional, managerial and technical jobs. Growth has slowed enormously.

Huge productivity rises in manufacturing and services have squeezed the number of skilled jobs in manual and white-collar middle ranks

Big increase in numbers of low-paid service job, which require soft rather than technical skills

However, these changes, while real, are ongoing, and do not particularly impact on the young rather than on older workers Slide9

Manufacturing as a share of GDPSlide10

The fastest-growing – and the largest growthSlide11

The case against the old vocational education regime

Why we needed (yet more) reforms in 2010Slide12

Stacking up qualificationsDiverted resources – huge inefficiencies

Encouraged schools and colleges to steer students into easy-to-pass awards

Discouraged resits of Mathe and English GCSE (they might fail…)

Confused what government pays for with what the labour market actually rewards

Had no ‘clear line of sight to work’Slide13

Priorities and the “Wolf Report” study programme

Good Maths and English – used as filters for employers and also genuinely important in a very wide range of jobs. The labour market recognises these GCSEs. It does also reward actual skill in both.

Qualifications that are substantive and recognised as such. (It would have been nice to avoid qualification reform for the

n

th time– but it is unavoidable.)

Work experience: the hard part and truly vital.

And it can be done.Slide14

Apprenticeships in the UKThe standard and single largest destination of school-leavers until the 1970s

Attacked head-on in the 1980s

Re-embraced by government in the 1990s

BUT

Quality systematically undermined by targets, funding regime, payment-by-resultsSlide15

The countries with the best record for youth employment and transitions are all countries with large apprenticeship systems:-

but in each case, these have developed organically, without disruptions, and remained employer-owned.

We effectively destroyed the institutions which created and maintained apprenticeship and they will take years to re-established. However, ‘proper’ apprenticeships are highly desired and rightly so.Slide16

Although ‘top’ apprenticeship countries tend to have more manufacturing than the UK, the differences are not big: - labour market trends are general. These countries have also

Extended apprenticeship into non-traditional fields

Included a major ‘general education’ component.

General education recognises (a) the changing nature of the labour market and the fact that many apprentices change sectors and (b) underpins progressionSlide17

Current apprenticeship reforms return control to employers, and demand more substantive content and end-of-apprenticeship assessment of mastery – as do ‘top’ apprenticeship countries, and as we once did.

But this and future governments must hold their nerve. Unfortunately, the recent English ‘tradition’ is one of endless meddling and re-design.Slide18

In our favour…We have finally re-joined the rest of the developed world in extending demanding general education beyond 16

Our universities are highly flexible in terms of entrance requirements and course design. (This is a mixed blessing, but means it is very easy for them to recognise and accept non-standard entry routes)

There is general recognition, at least in 11-18 education, that numerical targets and payment by results drive down standards. We probably won’t make that mistake again for a while.

We have a highly ‘wired’ society, in which young people of all classes are increasingly good at researching their options.Slide19

Plus every parent in Britain wants their child to achieve…

Thank you