Forum on Shooting Activities Gary Mauser Professor emeritus Would banning firearms reduce murder and suicide A review of international evidence Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy Spring 2007 ID: 641450
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Slide1
Invited PresentationWorld Forum on Shooting Activities
Gary
Mauser
Professor emeritusSlide2
Would banning firearms reduce murder and suicide?A review of international evidenceSlide3
Harvard Journal of Law and Public PolicySpring 2007Vol 30 (2)
Don B.
Kates
Gary A. MauserSlide4
Don B. KatesAmerican Criminologist
Professor of law (ret.)
Pacific Research Institute,
San Francisco, CA, USA
Gary A. Mauser
Canadian criminologist
Professor emeritus
Simon Fraser University
Burnaby, BC, CanadaSlide5
ClaimThe United States has the industrialized world’s highest murder rate because of high availability of
guns
Facts
Russia has a much higher murder rate
In general, higher gun ownership rates are associated with
lower
homicide rates
(both internationally and intra-nationally)Slide6
Comparing homicide rates:United States and Russia(per 100,000 people)
Year
USA
Russia (USSR)
1960s
5.5
14
1990s
8.1
24
2002
5.6
20.5
2009
5.0
15Slide7
ClaimEurope has low murder rates because of stringent gun controlFacts
Europe had low murder rates before gun controls introduced in twentieth century
Research does not support effectiveness of stringent gun controlsSlide8
Notes, Tables 1 – 2Tables 1 - 2 cover all the Continental European nations for which the two data sets given are both available. In every case we have given the homicide data for 2003 or the closest year thereto because that is the year of the publication from which the gun ownership data are taken. That publication is the Graduate Institute of International Studies’, SMALL ARMS SURVEY 2003 (Oxford U. Press 2003) at pp. 64 and 65, tables
The
homicide rate data come from the pamphlets JURISTAT: Homicide in Canada (Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics) for the years 2001-04. Slide9
Table 1 Gun ownership and murder rates
Nation
Murder rate
(per 100,000)
Gun ownership (guns per 100,000)
Murder rate year
Russia
20.54
4,000
2002
Lithuania
11.70
0
1998
Hungary
2.22
2,000
2003
Finland
1.98
39,000
2004
Sweden
1.87
24,000
2001
Poland
1.79
1,500
2003
France
1.65
30,000
2003Slide10
Table 1 (cont’d) Gun ownership and murder rates
Nation
Murder rate
(per 100,000)
Gun ownership
(guns per
100,000)
Murder rate year
Denmark
1.21
18,000
2003
Holland
1.20
300
2002
Greece
1.12
11,000
2003
Switzerland
0.99
16,000
2003
Germany
0.99
10,000
2003
Luxembourg
0.90
0
2002
Norway
0.81
36,000
2001
Austria
0.80
17,000
2002Slide11
Banning handgunsRestricting access to handguns does not correlate with lower murder ratesCountries that ban handguns typically have higher murder rates than neighboring countriesSlide12
Table 2 Comparing murder rates of neighboring European nations
Nation
Handgun policy
Murder rate
(per 100,000)
Year
Belarus
Banned
10.4
Late 1990s
Poland
Allowed
1.98
2003
Russia
Banned
20.54
2002Slide13
Table 2 cont’d Comparing murder rates of neighboring European nations
Nation
Handgun policy
Murder rate
(per 100,000)
Year
Russia
Banned
20.54
2002
Finland
Allowed
1.98
2004
Norway
Allowed
0.81
2001Slide14
Explanatory Note to Table 3It bears emphasis that the following data come from a special U.N. report whose data are not fully comparable to those in Tables 1 and 2 because they cover different years and derive from substantially differing sources. Slide15
Do ordinary people murder?Table 3 shows European countries with descending order of murder rate
No apparent correlation between murder and civilian
firearms ownershipSlide16
Table 3 - Eastern EuropeGun ownership and murder rates
Nation
Murder rate (year)
Rate of gun ownership
Russia
20.54 [2002]
4,000
Moldova
8.13 [2000]
1,000
Slovakia
2.65 [2000]
3,000
Romania
2.50 [2000]
300
Macedonia
2.31 [2000]
16,000
Hungary
2.22 [2003]
2,000Slide17
Table 3 (cont’d) - Eastern EuropeGun ownership and murder rates
Nation
Murder rate (year)
Rate of gun ownership
Finland
1.98 [2004]
39,000
Poland
1.79 [2003]
1,500
Slovenia
1.81 [2000]
5,000
Cz
. Republic
1.69 [2000]
5,000
Greece
1.69 [2000]
11,000Slide18
Is the United States uniquely violent?Table 4 shows countries in descending order of
combined murder and suicide rates
The United States does not have the highest intentional death rate. It falls midway in this collectionSlide19
Table 4 – Intentional Deaths:United States vs. Continental Europe
Nation
Suicide
Murder
Combined rates
Russia
41.2
30.6
71.8
Estonia
40.1
22.2
62.3
Latvia
40.7
18.2
58.9
Lithuania
45.6
11.7
57.3
Belarus
27.9
10.4
38.3
Hungary
32.9
3.5
36.4
Ukraine
22.5
11.3
33.8
Slovenia
28.4
2.4
30.4
Finland
27.2
2.9
30.1Slide20
Table 4 (cont’d) – Intentional Deaths:United States vs. Continental Europe
Nation
Suicide
Murder
Combined rates
Denmark
22.3
4.9
27.2
Croatia
22.8
3.3
26.1
Austria
22.2
1.0
23.2
Bulgaria
17.3
5.1
22.4
France
20.8
1.1
21.9
Switzerland
21.4
1.1
24.1
Belgium
18.7
1.7
20.4
United States
11.6
7.8
19.4
Poland
14.2
2.8
17.0Slide21
Table 4 (cont’d) – Intentional Deaths:United States vs. Continental Europe
Nation
Suicide
Murder
Combined rates
Germany
15.8
1.1
16.9
Romania
12.3
4.1
16.4
Sweden
15.3
1.0
16.3
Norway
12.3
0.8
13.1
Holland
9.8
1.2
11.0
Italy
8.2
1.7
9.9
Portugal
8.2
1.7
9.9
Spain
8.1
0.9
9.0
Greece
3.3
1.3
4.6Slide22
Notes, Table 41. Based in general on U.N. Demographic Yearbook (1998) as reported in David C. Stolinsky, "America: The Most Violent Nation?"
Medical Sentinel
v. 5 (# 6 2000) 199-201. It should be understood that, though the 1998 YEARBOOK gives figures for as late as 1996, the figures are not necessarily for that year. The YEARBOOK contains the latest figure each nation has provided the U.N. which may be 1996, 1995, or 1994.
2. The Swiss homicide figure
Stolinsky
, supra, reports is an error because it combines attempts with actual murders. We have computed the Swiss murder rate by averaging the 1994 and 1995 Swiss National Police figures for actual murders in those years given in R.A.I.
Munday
& J.A. Stevenson, GUNS AND VIOLENCE: THE DEBATE BEFORE LORD CULLEN (Essex, Eng., Piedmont: 1996) at p. 268. Slide23
More guns, more death?Does access to firearms by civilians increase murder rates and suicide rates?No apparent correlation between total intentional death rate and civilian firearms ownershipSlide24
Table 5 European Gun/Handgun Violent Death
Nation
Suicide
w /handgun
Murder
w/ handgun
Percent households w/ guns
Percent households w/ handguns
Belgium
18.7
1.7
16.6%
6.8%
France
20.8
1.1
22.6%
5.5%
W Germany
15.8
1.1
8.9%
6.7%
Holland
9.8
1.2
1.9%
1.2%
Italy
8.2
1.7
16%
5.5%
Norway
12.3
0.8
32%
3.8%
Sweden
15.3
1.3
15.1%
1.5%
Switzerland
20.8
1.1
27.2%
12.2%Slide25
Notes, Table 51. As to derivation of the homicide rates see Table 1, note 1. The data on household firearms ownership come from British Home Office figures printed in R.A.I. Munday & J.A. Stevenson, GUNS AND VIOLENCE: THE DEBATE BEFORE LORD CULLEN (Essex, Eng., Piedmont: 1996) pp. 30 and 275.Slide26
Table 6 European Firearms-Violent Deaths
Nation
Suicide
Suicide with gun
Murder
Murder with gun
Guns per 100,000 population
Austria
N/A
N/A
2.14
0.54
41.02
Belarus
27.26
N/A
9.86
N/A
16.5
Czech Rep.
9.88
1.01
2.80
0.92
27.58
Estonia
39.99
3.63
22.11
6.2
28.56
Finland
27.28
5.78
3.25
0.87
411.20
Germany
15.80
1.23
1.81
0.21
122.56
Greece
3.54
1.30
1.33
0.55
77.00Slide27
Table 6 (cont’d) European Firearms-Violent Deaths
Nation
Suicide
Suicide with gun
Murder
Murder with gun
Guns per 100,000 population
Hungary
33.34
0.88
4.07
0.47
15.54
Moldova
N/A
N/A
17.06
0.63
6.61
Poland
14.23
0.16
2.61
0.27
5.30
Romania
N/A
N/A
4.32
0.12
2.97
Slovakia
13.24
0.58
2.38
0.36
31.91
Spain
5.92
N/A
1.58
0.19
64.69
Sweden
15.65
1.95
1.35
0.31
246.65Slide28
Banning guns does not reduce murder ratesSlide29
Irish murder incidents before and after 1972 handgun ban Slide30
Jamaican murder rates before and after 1976 firearm banSlide31
Explanatory Notes for Subsequent Chart
Recently published data confirm earlier analyses by
Kates
-Mauser that firearms ownership and homicide rates are not positively correlated
internationally
Civilian firearms ownership
(shown by red line) increase from left to right. Source: UN Office on Drugs and Crime, Global Study on Homicide, 2011
Homicide
rates
(shown by vertical blue bars) from
the Graduate Institute of International Studies’, SMALL ARMS SURVEY 2007
In general
, nations with
higher gun ownership rates
(found at right) are
associated with lower homicide ratesSlide32
Homicide rates and firearms ownership in Europe Slide33
Caveat The Kates-Mauser study is based on the best available data
Murder and suicide rates are government sources
Firearms ownership rates
p
rovided by United Nations or
the Graduate Institute of International Studies’
, Swiss Small Arms
Survey
Nevertheless, errors abide in available
data
E.g., Swiss Small
A
rms
S
urvey estimates combine civilian and criminal firearms Slide34
Conclusions and recommendationsAvailable data does not support link between civilian firearms ownership and murder or suicide rates
Available data does not support effectiveness of stringent firearms laws in reducing murder or suicide rates
B
etter
estimates
of civilian
firearms
ownership
should be
collected
It is imperative
that policy makers be exposed to more accurate research on civilian firearms