Winston Harrington Alan Krupnick For USAEE Meeting Washington DC October 11 2011 Outline Background on HDVs The regulations Some economic issues Conclusions Caveat TO ABRIDGE IS TO LIE ID: 304985
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Slide1
Regulating fuel economy of heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs)
Winston Harrington
Alan Krupnick
For USAEE Meeting
Washington, DC, October 11, 2011Slide2
Outline
Background on HDVs
The
regulations
Some
economic
issues
ConclusionsSlide3
Caveat:TO ABRIDGE IS TO LIE
Final rule: 958 pages
RIA: 391 pages
This presentation: 15 slidesSlide4
Background on heavy-duty vehiclesSlide5
Energy use (almost all oil)
in transport (2010)
Light duty vehicles: 58%
Heavy-duty vehicles: 17%
Air: 9%
Other: 16%
Eliminating diesel CO2 emissions reduces U.S. CO2 by .17*.30 = 5%
CO2 vs. miles (LDVs and HDVs):
LDVs: 77% of CO2, 90% of miles
HDVs: 23% of CO2, 10% of milesSlide6
HDV energy losses
(Class 8 Combination trailers)
Urban
Intercity
Potential
Gains*
Engine losses
60%
59%
28%
Aerodynamic4-10%15-22%12%Tires8-12%13-16%11%Braking/drive train20-26%2-4%7%Auxiliary7-8%1-4%
Total Gain is 47%
* NRC report (2009)Slide7
Complex industry-complex products
Purchase engine, vehicle and trailer/body separately
tough for regulation and could be inefficient
Strong secondary market with modifications easy to do
hard to regulate
Strong announcement and new-source bias effects around
NOx
, PM
regsSlide8
RegulationSlide9
Authority
Energy Information and Security Act (EISA) gives NHTSA a mandate to regulate fuel use in HDVs
Massachusetts v. EPA (2008)
gave EPA the authority/responsibility to regulate CO2 as a criteria pollutant
Agencies jointly proposed regulations in Nov. 2010, promulgated in August 2011Slide10
Vehicle classifications
Traditional classification (FHWA): 8 vehicle classes, based on weight
1-2a: Light duty vehicles
2b-8: Heavy-duty vehicles
Regulatory categorization (NHTSA/EPA):
Class 2b-3 HD pickups and vans (20% of energy use)
Class 7-8 Combination vehicles (Semis) (65%)
Class 2b-8 “Vocational” vehicles (15%)
Basis: duty cycle, energy use, weight, similarities in manufacture/assemblySlide11
Regulatory description
Class 2b-3 HD pickups
and vans
Regulated like LDVs (whole-vehicle, payload-based attribute regulation)
Class 7-8 combination vehicles
Separate
standards for engines and cabs
Subcategorization
:
2 engine, 9 cab classifications
Vocational vehicles3 engine-chassis combinations, based on weightSlide12
Development of standards
Set baseline for engine and vehicles (e.g., class 8: HD 15-liter engine producing 455
hp
); can be based on
mfg
fleet average
Apply performance-enhancing technologies in order of cost-effectiveness
Set percent reduction equating estimated average cost/ton CO2 across categories (equity?)
Allow trading of emissions credits with banking within vehicle subcategoriesSlide13
Regulatory effectiveness in 2018
(% reduction in fuel use or CO2 emissions)
HD Pickups and vans
With gasoline engines: 12%
With diesel engines: 17%
Combination vehicles
Engines: 6%
Vehicles: 10-24%; higher for sleeper cabs (more aerodynamic opportunities)
Vocational vehicles
Engines: 5-9%
Vehicles: 6-9%Slide14
Estimated cost of regulations for combination and vocational vehicles (2008 $)
Hardware Cost per vehicle (2020):
Combination vehicles: $5661
Vocational vehicles: $343
Cost per ton CO2:
Combination vehicles: $30
Vocational vehicles: $30
Net cost per ton
incl
energy savings:
Combination vehicles: -$220Vocational vehicles: -$230Slide15Slide16
What’s good and not
Good
Redo of categories
Credit trading
Not so good
No alternate fuel credits
Technique for setting level of standards. Are marginal costs being
equated across categories?
Standards appear too weak, but perhaps understandably soSlide17
Broader Issue
The usual problems with new source standards
Rebound effect (5-15%) (plus road damage and accidents)
New source bias
Missed opportunities for existing vehicles
Class shifting
Lack of vehicle innovation incentives
Raise tax on diesel fuelSlide18
Takeaways
This is only a first step. Expect further and more expensive regulation
Could fix some issues
We’d be better off with carbon/diesel taxes or, much less so,
feebates