PPT-6.3/6.4 Probability Would you take the bet?

Why or why not Trent and Malcolm are spectators at a craps table in Las Vegas Trent offers the following bet to Malcolm When the dice two die are tossed Trent will pay Malcolm 5 if the twodice sum is 6 7 8 or 9 while Trent will win 6 from Malcolm if the sum is 2 3 4 5 10 11 or 12 Trent reasons that He has only four winning sums while I have 7 and I win 1 more when I win This bet is sure thing. Jack we love you as you are 57902 57371574965750257905574845749657502574935748557495578585750157905574835748657905574835748657501575015748657499 Just keep sending those cards checks letters Jack Litzenberg Jack July 1 1993 Glasgow Forty people in a SWBAT work with the rules of probability. SWBAT find the probability of an event. SWBAT find the probability that an event will not occur. Vocabulary. Experiment: anything that happens for which the result is uncertain. Your ET.. Rule. You . can bet 1 chip or 5 chips or max 10 chips per . question.. If . you are correct, you will win . chips,. . . and if you are wrong, you . will . lose chips. .. . For . probability. 1. Odds and . football. Predict the Premier . L. eague results for this weekend.. Can you estimate the probability of a win/draw/loss for each of the 10 home teams?. Place your bets. 2. Converting betting odds to probability.. calculus. 1 ≥ . Pr. (h) ≥ 0. If e deductively implies h, then Pr(h|e) = 1. .. (disjunction rule) If h and g are mutually exclusive, then . Pr. (h or g) = . Pr. (h) . Pr. (g). (disjunction rule) If h and g are . Tuesday…. Jesus teaches his disciples . Jesus interacts with the Pharisees . Jesus watches an offering. Jesus tells about the future, his return and remaining watchful. Mark 11. 20 . The next morning as they passed by the fig tree he had cursed, the disciples . 3.1 . The Concept of Probability. 3.2 . Sample Spaces and Events. 3.3 . Some Elementary Probability Rules. 3.4 . Conditional Probability and Independence. 3.5 . Bayes’ Theorem. 3-. 2. Probability Concepts. 4. Introduction. (slide 1 of 3). A key . aspect of solving real business problems is dealing appropriately with uncertainty.. This involves recognizing explicitly that uncertainty exists and using quantitative methods to model uncertainty.. What we learned last class…. We are not good at recognizing/dealing with randomness. Our “random” coin flip results weren’t streaky enough.. If B/G results behave like independent coin flips, we know how many families to EXPECT with 0,1,2,3,4 girls.. Conditional Probability. Conditional Probability: . A probability where a certain prerequisite condition has already been met.. Conditional Probability Notation. The probability of Event A, given that Event B has already occurred, is expressed as P(A | B).. Slide . 2. Probability - Terminology. Events are the . number. of possible outcome of a phenomenon such as the roll of a die or a fillip of a coin.. “trials” are a coin flip or die roll. Slide . Sixth Edition. Douglas C. Montgomery George C. . Runger. Chapter 2 Title and Outline. 2. 2. Probability. 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events . 2-1.1 Random Experiments. 2-1.2 Sample Spaces . A value between zero and one that describe the relative possibility(change or likelihood) an event occurs.. The MEF announces that in 2012 the change Cambodia economic growth rate is equal to 7% is 80%.. Probability and Probability Distribution Dr Manoj Kumar Bhambu GCCBA-42, Chandigarh M- +91-988-823-7733 mkbhambu@hotmail.com Probability and Probability Distribution: Definitions- Probability Rules –Application of Probability