Important Terms Population Sample BiasError Sampling Error Coverage Error NonResponse Response Bias Measurement Error Important Terms Population Sample BiasError Sampling Error Coverage Error ID: 214893
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Slide1
Assessing and Interpreting Public OpinionSlide2
Important Terms
Population
Sample
Bias/ErrorSampling ErrorCoverage ErrorNon-ResponseResponse BiasMeasurement ErrorSlide3
Important Terms
Population
Sample
Bias/ErrorSampling ErrorCoverage ErrorNon-ResponseResponse BiasMeasurement ErrorSlide4
Important Terms
Population
Sample
Error/BiasSampling ErrorCoverage ErrorNon-ResponseResponse BiasMeasurement ErrorSlide5
Public Opinion on Abortion
Question # 1
Which of these statements comes closest to your opinion? Abortion is the same thing as murdering a child, or abortion is not murder because a fetus isn’t really a person.
Murder 55%
Not murder 35
Don’t know, not ascertained 10Slide6
Public Opinion on Abortion
Question # 2
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Abortion sometimes is the best course in a bad situation.
Agree 66%Disagree 26
Don’t know, not ascertained 8Slide7
Public Opinion on Abortion
Question # 3:
What do you think about abortion? Should it be legal as it is now, legal only in such cases as saving the life of the mother, rape, or incest, or should it not be permitted at all?
Legal as is now 40%
Legal only to save mother, rape, incest 40
Not permitted 16
Don’t know, no answer 4Slide8
Literary Digest Poll for 1936
1928 & 1932 polls had been successful
1936 contest seemed competitiveSlide9
Literary Digest Poll for 1936
44 Million potential voters
10 Million ballots distributed
2.4 Million returned
Estimated election results:
FDR 43%
Alf Landon 57%Slide10
Literary Digest Poll for 1936
Real election results:
FDR 62%
Landon 38%Slide11
1936 Election Outcome: Correctly Predicted by Gallup
Afterward Gallup dominated pollingSlide12
Gallup Poll of 1948
quota sampling
Prediction: Truman 44.5% (lose)
Real election results: Truman 49.9 (win)Slide13
Measurement Error:
Question Wording
Holocaust Survey Mishap
Roper Organization (1992):
Does it seem possible or does it seem impossible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened?
(65%) Impossible it never happened
(12%) Don't know
(22%) Possible it never happened
Confusing question Slide14
Question Wording
(March 1994) – G
allup Organization
Does it seem possible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened or do you feel certain that it happened?
(91%) Certain it happened
(8%) Don't know
(1%) Possible it never happenedSlide15
Question Wording
Leading questions
Double-barreled questions
Push pollsSlide16
Measurement Error:
Respondent Effects
Memory
Ignorance
Social desirabilitySlide17
Measurement Error:
Respondent EffectsSlide18
Measurement Error:
Question Wording (Framing)
Would you favor or oppose federal assistance to industries in economic trouble?
Would you favor or oppose a federal "bailout" of industries in economic trouble? Slide19
Measurement Error:
Question Wording (Framing)
Would you favor or oppose cutting federal aid to the needy in order to cut federal spending?
Would you favor or oppose cutting welfare programs in order to cut federal spending? Slide20
Opinion
is Ill-Informed
Governmental Structure
•39% did not know Republicans took over the U.S. House in 1994
•Only 26% knew a U.S. Senator served for 6 years
•Only half knew the Republicans were more conservative than the Democrats
•Only half knew SCOTUS has last say on whether a law is constitutional
•Only 6% could name Rehnquist as the Chief Justice
•Only 34% could name Dole as the Senate Majority Leader
•Only 53% could name Gingrich as the House Speaker
•Only 60% could name Gore as the Vice President
Social Conditions
•59% thought elderly poverty had increased over 20 years; it had dropped sharply
•91% thought violent crime had increased from 1976-1996; it had dropped significantly
•69% thought the budget deficit had increased from 1993-1996 despite negotiated decreases
Government Policies
•58% thought we spent more on Foreign Aid than Medicare
•32% thought government policy had made this situation worse, despite large handoutsSlide21
Use of Polls
Rachel Maddow (and others): 72% of Foxnews viewers oppose the Civil Rights Act
Is this an accurate depiction?Slide22
Actual QuestionSlide23
Actual QuestionSlide24
Civil Rights Act (1964)
Title I: Equal Application of Voter Registration Standards
Title II: No discrimination in “public accommodations engaged in interstate commerce”
Title III: Sub-National Governments cannot ban access to public facilities based on race, gender, religion, ethnicity
Title IV: Attorney General can sue to enforce desegregation
Title V: Expanded powers of Civil Rights Commission
Title VI: No discrimination by government agencies that receive federal fundingSlide25
Use of Polls
Do you support the Civil Rights Act of 1964?
Yes: 28%
No: 72%Would the conclusion “72% of Foxnews viewers oppose Civil Rights Act” be accurate?Slide26
Consider this…
A national survey:
52%
favor Obama48% favor McCain+/- 3% margin of errorSlide27
The Leader is…
Obama could be supported by as low as
49%
McCain could be favored by as high as 51%Does it makes sense to use a national opinion poll to predict winners?Slide28Slide29