PPT-CFSv2 monthly mean forecast skill

December 2010 Forecast and observation data Forecast CFSv2 monthly mean hindcast 19822009 Forecasts are initiated from every 5 th day starting from January 1 st of each year 4 members at each initial day. 3. Daria . Kluver. Independent Study. From. Statistical . Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. By . Daniel . Wilks. Let’s review a few concepts that were introduced last time on Forecast Verification. Webinar . Series. Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation Field Campaign. Climate Variability. . & Predictability. Application of DYNAMO/AMIE observations to validate and improve the representation of MJO initiation and propagation in the NCEP CFSv2. Reeves. Jennifer . Tate. Aaron . Treadway. Harold Brooks, NSSL. Kim Klockow, OU. A Comparative Analysis of Severe Weather Warnings in the Continental United States. http://weather.ou.edu/~warnstats. /. Factors affecting forecast skill of the MJO over the Maritime Continent. Augustin Vintzileos. CPC/NCEP . – . CICS/ESSIC. , University of Maryland College . Park. Jon . Gottschalck. CPC/NCEP. Problem statement:. Meteorological Forecasts in ESP. Meteorological Ensemble Forecast Processor (MEFP). Correct forcing bias. Merge in time. Downscale (basin). WPC/RFC . forecasts . (1-5 days). GEFS . forecasts . (1-15 days). Operational CFSv2. Atlantic Ocean Cold Bias Problem. NCEP is very concerned about . the cold bias problem in the Atlantic Ocean that is present in the operational CFSv2.. NCEP/EMC is aggressively working towards . (Aug-Dec). . Monthly Forecast Verification. CRFS. December 8, 2015. Objectives. Analyze performance of ESP monthly volume forecasts. Baseflow. . period (August. -December. ). 1981-2010 ESP reforecasts; not official forecasts. hindcast. (seasonal mean). CPC/NCEP/NOAA. Jan 2011. Forecast & observation data. Assessment of the CFSv2 seasonal . forecasts. Compare the forecast correlation skill, . Rmse. , and Standard deviation from CFSv2 & CFSv1(current version). Tom Hopson. Luca . Delle. . Monache. , . Yubao. Liu, Gregory Roux, . Wanli. Wu, Will Cheng, Jason . Knievel. , Sue . Haupt. Army. Test and Evaluation Command:. Dugway. Proving Ground. Dugway. Proving Grounds, Utah e.g. T Thresholds. Matthew Vaughan, Brian Tang, and Lance Bosart. Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences. University at Albany/SUNY. Albany, NY 12222. Northeast Storm Conference. Holiday Inn. Saratoga Springs, New York. Simulation and Impact on ENSO Prediction. Kathy Pegion. University of Colorado/CIRES & NOAA/ESRL/PSD. Michael Alexander. NOAA/ESRL/PSD. NPO in NDJ (-1). . . . . Winds & Heat Flux. Huug van den Dool (CPC). CPC, June 23, 2011/ Oct 2011/ Feb 15, 2012. / UoMDMay,2,2012/ Aug2012/ Dec,12,2012/UoMDApril24,2013/. May22,2013/. 2. Assorted Underlying Issues. Which tools are used…. How do these tools work?. Sean PF Casey. 1,2. , Ross N. Hoffman. 1,2. , Robert Atlas. 2. , and Lidia Cucurull. 2. 1. Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies/University of Miami. 2. NOAA/OAR/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. its. . Verification. Malaquías. Peña. Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA. 1. Material comprises Sects. . . 6.6, 7.4 and 7.7 in . Wilks. (2. nd. Edition). Additional material and notes from .