Conduction of a simulation - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

Conduction of a simulation considering cascading effects

Anders LönnermarkSP Swedish Technical Research Institute

Clément Judek and

Abla

Mimi Edjossan

Sossou

, University of

Lorraine

The

research

leading

to

these

results

has

received

funding

from

the

European

Union

Seventh

Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013)

under

grant

agreement

n

o

607665.Slide2

Plan of the presentationIntroduction

Key concepts theoryCascading effectsCrisis situationEmergency situationScenarioSimulation methodologyConclusionSlide3

IntroductionCritical situation that can be

wether an emergency situation or a crisis situation can be of high consequences in a very rapid contextDecisions to be made are very importantExperience is needed to improve the capability to manage a critical situationFrom real situations managementFrom sensitization and training sessionsSimulations are a solution because:

One can be planned wheneverOne can failOne can rise awareness and trainSlide4

Key concepts theory

As in any work, we must set some definitions to avoid misunderstandingsIn the wide domain of risk management the need to understand each other is crucial, because:of high consequences

the situations can be very specificthere are many different involved stakeholders

We propose to clarify four important concepts

Cascading effects

Crisis situation

Emergency situation

ScenarioSlide5

Key concepts theory

Cascading effectsCascading effects are the effects arising when an incident affecting one system or function in society propagates to another function or service, due to a dependency between themFor the CascEff project, cascading effects refer to the impacts of an initiating event where:System dependencies lead to impacts propagating to other systems, and;The combined impacts of the propagated event are of greater consequences than the root impacts, and;

Multiple stakeholders and/or responders are involved.Slide6

Key concepts theory

Cascading effectsAn exampleThe initiating event may be a fire in a power station happening in the Power system (the originating system called System 1 in the figure).Cascading effects arise due to a dependency between the Power system and the Railway system (the dependent system called System 3 in the figure).

If this impacted system gives rise to additional

impacts to other sy

stem, there is a continuation of the cascading effect.

The first resulting effects from directly impacted systems from the initiating event to dependent systems are defined as “first-order cascading effects”. If this line of propagation continues, second, third, etc. order cascading effects arise

.Slide7

Key concepts theory

Crisis situationA clear definition of a crisis is necessary to differentiate it from other critical situations such as an emergency situationThis differentiation is essential for designing the conditions and the scenario in a simulationThe large amount of different definition found in the literature is confusing

Focusing on the given characteristics we propose to define the crisis with two categories of characteristicsSlide8

Key concepts theory

Crisis situationBy definition, there is no prepared plan for a crisis situationManagers must adapt themselvesTo improve their capability to steer a crisis situation, they can be aware of it to understand rapidly the nature of the situation they are coping withIn the context of a crisis, cascading effect is a concept that is important regarding its aftermaths spreading nature that can lead to « chaos », the involvement of « many stakeholders » and « important consequences » that are part of the characteristics of the crisis situation.Slide9

Key concepts theory

Emergency situation is not a crisis situationThis distinction is importantBoth situation deal with high consequences, quick onset, many involved stakeholder etc.However, an emergency situation is a known situation for which a prepared plan can be appliedInvolved stakeholders must be trained to improve their capability to apply the prepared planSlide10

Key concepts theory

The concept of scenario A scenario can be described as a story of possible future eventsScenarios can be used for many different purposes, such as: to illustrate alternative solutions and identify potential problems to prevent certain effectsto reduce uncertainty

to question existing assumptionsto indicate thinkable futures

they can also be used as a management tool to improve the quality of strategic decisions Slide11

Key concepts theory

The concept of scenario Walker (1994) identifies four criteria for scenarios to be adequate and qualitative: consistencyplausibilitycredibilityrelevanceSlide12

CascEff scenario librarySlide13

CascEff scenario library IISlide14

The Simulation methodologyDesign and development

Identify the exercise goal (training, testing/validation, raising awareness etc.);Set SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time-bound) exercise objectives and define corresponding performance/evaluation criteria;Appoint the Exercise director and an Exercise project team (coordinator, operators, evaluators);Develop the exercise scenario and prepare all content e.g. build the scenario

Create exercise documentationDefine the type of activity: test, simulation, discussion-based or operations-based exercise, etc. and prepare for a test plan/exercise script accordingly. Elaborate the test plan in parallel to the course of actions in the scenario:

Choice of location;

Appropriate infrastructure;

Required staff;

Preparation of the required resources and logistic plan;

Etc.

Establish a communication strategy. Slide15

The Simulation methodologyDesign and development

Objectives setting of the planned sessionDefining the objectives of the session will help designing it. We propose two general types of objectives:Training and testingAre there elements to test and to train for?Are cascading effects considered in specific plan

?Raising awarenessAre cascading effects not yet considered?Slide16

The Simulation methodology

Design and developmentDifferent types of simulation - Regarding the objectives, the designer of the session must chose a type of simulation. Slide17

The Simulation methodology

Design and developmentScenario writing methodologyScoping the scenario fieldDefinition of the purposeCascading effectsCrisis situation

Emergency situation

Strategical vs Tactical vs Operational

Identification of problems to be addressed

Theme

Identification of key factors

Key decision factors

Drivers and barriers

Drivers and barriers

Analyzing key factors and their dependencies

Scenario script generation

Scenario transfer to pathsSlide18

The Simulation methodology

Scenario description templateNamePlace (location)Type of initiating eventDescription of the initial systemDescription of the course of events

Description of cascading effectsDescription of the consequences

Scale

of the scenario

Involved

stakeholders

Reference to historical event (if necessary)

Reference to similar/relevant events (if necessary)

How

does the scenario differ from the historical event (if necessary)Slide19

The Simulation methodologyConduct

Start up briefing by the exercise coordinator: briefing of the exercise operators, key actors and supporting actors and distribution of documents;Roll out of the test script and scenario;Termination of the exerciseSlide20

The Simulation methodology

ConductIdentify the rolesExercise roles (applicable to all exercises)Exercise director or manager Exercise (project) team Exercise coordinator Evaluator(s)

Observer(s) Exercise Operators Safety controller

Scenario roles (specific roles in relation with the scenario)

Participants Key actors

Supporting actors Slide21

The Exercise methodology

EvaluatePost exercise debriefing: feedback from the evaluators is gathered, shared and discussed in one or more debriefing sessions;Consultation of stakeholders: results of the debriefing can be shared with stakeholdersSlide22

The Exercise methodology

Improvement action planImprovement action plan: lessons learnt from the exercise need to be the subject of an action plan with actions, guidelines and/or recommendations for improvementSlide23

ConclusionDo not forget to define the

objecivesto fit with expectations to avoid misunderstandingsChose the adequated simulation typesBuild a relevant scenario regading the objectives

Adapt the methodology to fit with the wanted session