Source Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of National Health Expenditure NHE data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Office of the Actuary National Health Statistics Group ID: 560233
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Slide1
What is behind the recent slowdown in health spending?Slide2
Source
: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of National Health Expenditure (NHE) data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group
U.S. health care spending per capita has risen at historically low rates in recent years
Average annual growth rate of health spending per capita for 1970’s – 1990’s;
Annual change in actual health spending 2000 – 2013 and projected (2014 – 2023) Slide3
Source
:
Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of 2013 OECD data: "OECD Health Data: Health expenditure and financing: Health expenditure indicators", OECD Health Statistics (database
). doi: 10.1787/data-00349-en (Accessed on June 25, 2014
).
Notes
: Data unavailable for: Australia and the Netherlands in 2012; France from 1981 through 1984 and 1986 through 1989; and Germany in 1991. OECD reports a break in series for: Belgium in 2003; Canada in 1975 ; France in 2003; and the Netherlands in 2005. Canada and Switzerland data are reported as estimated values for 2012.
Health spending growth has slowed in the U.S. and in comparable countries
Average annual growth rate in total health expenditures per capita, U.S. dollars, PPP adjustedSlide4
Source
: Kaiser Family Foundation Analysis of National Health Expenditure (NHE) data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group
Low growth rates have persisted for five years, sparking researchers to look for the causes
Annual change in U.S. per capita health spending 2000 – 2013Slide5
Changes in insurance
Higher deductibles and cost sharingShifts from employer-sponsored coverage to lower-paying public coverage and in uninsuranceChanges in Medicare and Medicaid payment policies and limits on provider reimbursementsSlower diffusion of new medical technology, as examples:Few new high-cost prescription drugs, combined with existing brands moving to generic statusSlowing use of advanced imaging and expensive heart procedures
Increased efficiency of health care providers
What types of structural changes in the health care system may be contributing to the slowdown?Slide6
Source
: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of mandatory Medicare outlays and Medicare enrollment data from CBO Medicare baseline projections, 2010-2014: https://kaiserfamilyfoundation.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/medicare-spending-figure-1.png
Notes: Grey lines represent 2011 – 2013 baseline projections. Medicare spending slowed for different reasons than private spending
CBO projections of Mandatory outlays per Medicare beneficiary, predicted based on baseline yearSlide7
Source
: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of National Health Expenditure (NHE) data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group
An annual percentage point difference in growth rates makes a very large difference in spending over time
Projected
annual
change in U.S. per capita health spending
2014 – 2023
, alternative scenarios