PPT-Advanced Applications of the Monte Carlo Wind Probability Model:

A Year 2 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update Mark DeMaria 1 Robert DeMaria 2 Andrea Schumacher 2 Daniel Brown 3 Michael Brennan 3 Richard Knabb 4 Pablo Santos 5. G.S. Karlovits, J.C. Adam, Washington State University. 2010 AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA. Outline. Climate change and uncertainty in the Pacific Northwest. Data, model and methods. Climate data. Pete . Truscott. 1. , . Daniel . Heynderickx. 2. , . Fan . Lei. 3. , . Athina . Varotsou. 4. , . Piers . Jiggens. 5. . and Alain . Hilgers. 5. (1) Kallisto Consultancy , UK; (2) DH Consultancy, Belgium; (3) . Steven . Gollmer. Cedarville University. Meet and Greet Game. Are there people here who share the same birthday?. Most births occur in September & October. October 5. th. is the most common birthday. Analysis. Jake Blanchard. University of . Wisconsin - Madison. Spring . 2010. Introduction. Monte Carlo analysis is a common way to carry out uncertainty analysis. There are tools you can add in to Excel, but we will start by doing some of this on our own.. Assisting precision calculations with . M. onte Carlo sampling. OR. Assisting Monte Carlo sampling with precision calculations. David Farhi (Harvard University). Work in progress with . Ilya. . Feige. (Monaco). Monte Carlo Timeline. 10 June 1215. Monaco is taken by the Genoese. 1489. The King of France, Charles VIII, and the Duke of Savoy recognize the sovereignty of Monaco . 1512. Louis XII, King of France, recognizes the independence of Monaco. A Year 1 Joint Hurricane . Testbed. Project Update. . Mark DeMaria. 1. , Stan Kidder. 2. , Robert DeMaria. 2. , . Andrea Schumacher. 2. , Daniel Brown. 3. , Michael Brennan. 3. , . Richard Knabb. 4. SIMULATION. Simulation . of a process . – the examination . of any emulating process simpler than that under consideration. .. Examples:. System’s Simulation such as simulation of engineering systems, large organizational systems, and governmental systems. Imry. Rosenbaum. Jeremy . Staum. Outline. What is simulation . metamodeling. ?. Metamodeling. approaches. Why use function approximation?. Multilevel Monte Carlo. MLMC in . metamodeling. Simulation . Monte . Carlo Simulation. Monte Carlo simulations in PSpice can be run as either:. a worst case analysis where the maximum deviation from the nominal values of each component are used in the calculations. A Year 2 Joint Hurricane . Testbed. Project Update. . Mark DeMaria. 1. , Robert DeMaria. 2. , Andrea Schumacher. 2. , . Daniel Brown. 3. , Michael Brennan. 3. , Richard Knabb. 4. , Pablo Santos. 5. Jake Blanchard. Spring . 2010. Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers. 1. Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel. There are at least three ways to do MCS in Excel. Fill a bunch of cells with appropriate random numbers. A . simulation technique . uses a probability experiment to mimic a real-life situation.. The . Monte Carlo method . is a simulation technique using random numbers.. Bluman, Chapter 14. 1. Bluman, Chapter 14. In of our series, where in the past we have discussed the ( i ) Black Scholes model and the (ii) Binomial option pricing model, we present the Monto Carlo simulation model to conclude our series on op