Giving all children a chance - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

Giving all children a chance

George Washington UniversityApril 2011

Jaime Saavedra Poverty Reduction and EquityTHE WORLD BANK Slide2

Poverty has fallen in almost all countriesSlide3

Change in the

Gini

Index (1990’s – 2000’s)…and inequality?Slide4

What inequality?

Income, consumption?Opportunities, assets?Slide5

1 = “Incomes

should be made more equal" 10 = “We need more income

differences as incentive to individual effort"Source: World Values Survey; conducted by Inter-univerisity Consortium of Political and Social Research, University of Michigan, 1999-2000; cited in Inglehart et al, 2004.Inequality of what? Incomes? Outcomes? This polarizes the policy debate

Inequality of opportunities…..facilitates consensus?Slide6

Improvement

in poverty indicators

India, Indonesia and Peru reduced child mortality ………Source: DHS,Slide7

But inequalities within countries are large

…and not always falling

Large differences across quintiles (convergence in India, Indonesia, Peru)Source: DHSSlide8

… inequities also across areas Source: DHS, STATcompilerSlide9

Another poverty indicator: malnutrition

Reduction in % of children underweight in India, Nigeria and Peru

Source: DHSSlide10

But little or no convergence between the richest and poorest – in fact widening of rich-poor gap for India and Nigeria

And again large, persistent and in some cases increasing gaps

Source: DHS, STATcompilerSlide11

Two Latin American children:

Probability of completing 6th grade on time

Child with 4 siblings in single-parent rural household, household head without formal education and per capita income of 1 US$ (PPP)Child with 1 sibling, in urban two-parent household, household head with secondary education and per capita income of 25 US$ (PPP)Slide12

Two

African children

: Probability of completing 6th grade on timeSlide13

“

4 out of 10 children less than 5 years do not have access to clean water” Problem 1: access/coverageBut there there is a second problem

here“Those 4 children are indigenousProblem 2 : circumstances affect children's chances. distributionSlide14

The

equality

of opportunity principle

Circumstances

exogenous

to

the

individual,

like

birth

place,

gender

,

ethnicity

,

income

and

education

of

parents

should

not

determine

the

persons

wellbeingSlide15

Human Opportunity Index

Inequality -sensitive coverage rate that incorporates:a) The average coverage of a good or service, which society accepts should be universalb) If it is allocated according to an equality of opportunity principle

Coverage/access rate of a discounted by a penalty for inequality of opportunitiesWhere, Average access

(

C

)



Inequality

of

Opportunity

Index

(

D

)Slide16

Defining

the Inequality

of Opportunity Index (D)Mean coverage rate for population

Predicted coverage rate of individual i. Obtained from a logit

model using as independent variables the

circumstances

and dependent variable the access to the opportunity

An intuitive interpretation of D: Share of the total number of opportunities that needs to be reallocated to ensure equality of opportunity. Or the degree of dispersion of group specific coverage ratesSlide17

Circumstances

Characteristics outside the controls of individuals

Society wants these to not influence a child’s access to basic opportunities.GenderParents’ education

Household’s location

Number of Siblings

Ethnicity

Altitude in Andean Region in LAC.

Child’s orphan status in many conflict-affected countries.Slide18

Indicators

Good or service that society agrees is critical for individual development

Essential for poverty eradicationUniversality is a valid social objective.Examples School attendance

Completing primary on timeAccess to water

Access to sanitation

Access to electricitySlide19

In terms of school attendance, African countries are comparable with many countries in LAC region – in coverage and HOI

Africa and Latin America

(late 2000s)Note: HOIs use the same definition of opportunities and comparable list of circumstances Slide20

Africa and Latin America (late 2000s)

African countries compare poorly with most LAC countries on completion of primary on time - Late entry is a major problem in AfricaFinished Primary education on TimeSlide21

Encouraging trends for Africa on school attendance (late 1990s – late 2000s)

Large improvements in school attendance for most African countries In almost all African countries change in HOI > change in coverage  reduction in inequality in attendanceSlide22

But mixed picture on trends for primary school completion in Africa

Little or no improvement in HOI for 7 out of 16 African countries Increase in HOI much smaller than increase in coverage for the 9 African countries showing an improvement

 rise in inequality in primary school completionFinished Primary education on TimeAnnual ChangeSlide23

Source: World Bank

Africa and Latin America – Electricity Slide24

Source

: World Bank using DHS data; work under progress (do not cite)

Changes in the HOI - Electricity(late 1990’s vs. late 2000’s)Slide25

Source: World Bank. Sanitation – Flush toilet

Africa and Latin America – SanitationSlide26

Source: World Bank. Access to water – piped water in the dwelling or property

Africa and Latin America – Access to clean waterSlide27

Source

: World Bank using DHS data; work under progress (do not cite)

Changes in the HOI - Sanitation(late 1990’s vs. late 2000’s)Slide28

Source

: World Bank using DHS data; work under progress (do not cite)

Changes in the HOI - Water(late 1990’s vs. late 2000’s)Slide29

Source: World Bank

HOI related to Access to key Household Services 

 Indonesia (2009)  

Coverage rate (%)

Dissimilarity Index (%)

HOI (%)

Access to improved water

66.7

3.0

64.6

Access to improved sanitation

96.6

1.4

95.3Slide30

Source: World Bank

HOI related to Access to key Household Services 

 Indonesia (2009)  

Coverage rate (%)

Dissimilarity Index (%)

HOI (%)

Access to piped water

20.0

22.3

15.6

Access to improved water

66.7

3.0

64.6

Access to sanitation (Flush toilet)

75.9

9.4

68.8

Access to improved sanitation

96.6

1.4

95.3Slide31

HOI –

Completing primary

education on time Brazilian statesUruguay

No state in Brazil has an Opportunity Index similar to Chile. Several states have an index inferior to GuatemalaSlide32

Moving the goalpostsRelevant basic opportunities change

with economic developmentBasic Opportunities in Chile Slide33

Comparison with other indices Slide34
Slide35

Questions that arise in applying HOISome examples

Opportunities may need to be defined differently; but that may affect comparability across regionsSocial objectives of universality need not necessarily be the same across regions.Even the

same “basic” key goods and service may have to be defined differently for some countries, for HOI to be useful, (Example: basic access to water in LAC, Africa and East AsiaCircumstances are exogenous to the child today, even if they can be influenced by policy (e.g. Child’s orphan status, parents’ education)Slide36

Human Opportunity Index

Is a Inequality -sensitive coverage rate that incorporates:a) The average coverage of a good or service, which society accepts should be universalb) If it is allocated according to an equality of opportunity principle

It is a coverage/access rate of a discounted by a penalty for inequality of opportunities It is an inequality adjusted standard. With a standard established by society, with circumstances that define the dimensions of inequality of opportunity established by society. Slide37

Political imperative of social inclusion leads to the need of measuring progress towards less inequality and povertyThese indicators allow to assess the current performance of the country in the objective of giving every children a chance.Slide38

Thank you

http://www.worldbank.org/povertySlide39

Africa – Other definitions of sanitation

Flush toilet (owned or shared)Slide40

Africa – Other definitions of sanitation

Flush toilet (owned or shared) and pit toilet latrineSlide41

Africa – Other definitions of water

Piped water (in the household or outside)Slide42

Africa – Other definitions of water

Piped water (in the household or outside), well water or rainwaterSlide43

Brazil: Completion of 8th Grade by

16 years olds)Slide44

Brazil: Completion of 8th Grade by

16 years olds)Slide45

Brazil: Completion of 8th Grade by 16 years olds)Slide46