Cautionary Note Stock valuation is often a topic dedicated to one or more 3credit elective courses FINC852 at UD is a stock valuation and portfolio theory course Think of this chapter as a scratching the surface of the topic or as the tip of the iceberg ID: 1028166
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1. Stock ValuationModule 4.2
2. Cautionary NoteStock valuation is often a topic dedicated to one or more 3-credit elective courses.FINC852 at UD is a stock valuation and portfolio theory course.Think of this chapter as a “scratching the surface” of the topic, or as the “tip of the iceberg.”
3. 9.1 The PV of Common StocksThe value of any asset is the present value of its expected future cash flows.Stock ownership produces cash flows from: Dividends Capital GainsValuation of Different Types of StocksZero GrowthConstant GrowthDifferential GrowthOf course firms don’t announce their “type” of stock. This is up to stock analysts to consider – and of course most stocks are “differential” growth.
4. Case 1: Zero GrowthAssume that dividends will remain at the same level foreverSince future cash flows are constant, the value of a zero growth stock is the present value of a perpetuity:
5. Case 2: Constant GrowthSince future cash flows grow at a constant rate forever, the value of a constant growth stock is the present value of a growing perpetuity:Assume that dividends will grow at a constant rate, g, forever, i.e., ...
6. Constant Growth ExampleSuppose Big D, Inc., just paid a dividend of $0.50. It is expected to increase its dividend by 2% per year. If the market requires a return of 15% on assets of this risk level, how much should the stock be selling for?Use our (growing) perpetuity formula:P0 = .50(1+.02) / (.15 - .02) = $3.92
7. Case 3: Differential GrowthAssume that dividends will grow at different rates in the foreseeable future and then will grow at a constant rate thereafter.To value a Differential Growth Stock, we need to:Estimate future dividends in the foreseeable future.Estimate the future stock price when the stock becomes a Constant Growth Stock (case 2).Compute the total present value of the estimated future dividends and future stock price at the appropriate discount rate.
8. Case 3: Differential GrowthAssume that dividends will grow at rate g1 for N years and grow at rate g2 thereafter.Estimating dividends using our FV tools: ......
9. Case 3: Differential GrowthWe can value this as the sum of: a T-year annuity growing at rate g1plus the discounted value of a perpetuity growing at rate g2 that starts in year T+1
10. Case 3: Differential GrowthConsolidating gives P0 = PA + PB:Or, we can “cash flow” it out.
11. A Differential Growth ExampleA common stock just paid a dividend of $2. The dividend is expected to grow at 8% for 3 years, then it will grow at 4% in perpetuity. What is the stock worth? The discount rate is 12%.
12. With the Formula
13. With Cash Flows…0 1 2 3 40 1 2 3 The constant growth phase beginning in year 4 can be valued as a growing perpetuity at time 3.
14. Same example with spreadsheet