HFC growth trend and freezing target analysis Kherlenzaya Ariunbold Project management specialist 17 November 2020 Montreal Protocol Annex F HFCs Article 5 Group 1 countries Article 5 Group 2 countries ID: 1039667
Download Presentation The PPT/PDF document "Virtual Meeting of South Asia and Southe..." is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
1. Virtual Meeting of South Asia and Southeast Asia network HFC growth trend and freezing target analysisKherlenzaya Ariunbold, Project management specialist17 November 2020
2. Montreal Protocol Annex F - HFCsArticle 5 – Group 1 countriesArticle 5 – Group 2 countriesBaselineAverage HFC consumption for 2020–2022 + 65% of HCFC baselineBaselineAverage HFC consumption for 2024–2026 + 65% of HCFC baselineFreezeJanuary 1, 2024FreezeJanuary 1, 202810% reductionJanuary 1, 202910% reductionJanuary 1, 203230% reductionJanuary 1, 203520% reductionJanuary 1, 203750% reductionJanuary 1, 204030% reductionJanuary 1, 204280% reductionJanuary 1, 204585% reductionJanuary 1, 2047Group 1: Article 5 parties not part of Group 2 Group 2: Bahrain, India, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
3. No.CountryHCFC baseline in ODP tonnesHCFC baseline in CO2 eq. tonnesHFC consumption 2018 in CO2 eq. tonnesHFC consumption 2019 in CO2 eq. tonnes1Brunei Darussalam6.10200,220 2Cambodia15.00492,691 990,713 344,326 3Indonesia403.909,689,217 4Lao PDR2.3075,885 159,041 5Malaysia515.8012,619,007 6Myanmar4.30140,420 7Philippines161.983,906,853 8,143,976 8Singapore216.105,698,741 9Thailand927.6024,967,471 10Timor Leste0.5016,431 13,645 11Vietnam221.205,856,456 6,019,450 HCFC baseline and current HFC consumption (as per Ozone Secretariat)The countries that have submitted their HFC consumption data are highlighted with green
4. HCFC baseline and current HFC consumption (as per Ozone Secretariat)No.CountryHCFC baseline in ODP tonnesHCFC baseline in CO2 eq. tonnesHFC consumption 2018 in CO2 eq. tonnesHFC consumption 2019 in CO2 eq. tonnes1Afghanistan23.60 774,228 275,000 2Bangladesh72.60 1,840,642 3Bhutan0.30 10,169 11,659 4China19,269.00 481,278,764 5India1,608.20 30,296,696 6Iran (the Islamic Republic of)380.50 6,813,034 7Korea (Republic of)1,908.00 38,796,219 8Korea (the Democratic Republic of)78.00 2,143,910 9Maldives4.60 131,615 309,623 358,171 10Mongolia1.40 42,943 11Nepal1.10 36,200 12Pakistan248.11 4,532,061 7,435,247 13Sri Lanka13.90 407,484 331,622
5. HFC consumption growth analysisHCFC baseline in CO2 eq. tonnes2019 consumptionAnnual HFC growth assumptionEstimated HFC consumptionCalculated HFC baseline including HCFC baseline component20202021202220232024ABx%B*(1+x%)B*(1+x%)2B*(1+x%)3B*(1+x%)4B*(1+x%)5(B*(1+x%)+B*(1+x%)2+B*(1+x%)3)/3 + A*0.65Based on the officially reported HFCs consumption dataSimplified calculation that assumes a constant annual growth rateDetermined different growth rates that results different outcomeHCFC baseline component ratio against the current consumption determines the room for growth in freeze years
6. HFC consumption growth analysis example - MaldivesHFC consumptionHFC growth rate assumptionEstimated HFC consumption / CO2-equiv. tonnesCalculated HFC baseline including HCFC baseline componentPercentage 65% HCFC baseline of calculated baseline2020202120222023202420182019309,623358,1713%368,916379,984391,383403,125415,218465,64418.4%6.6%381,829407,050433,936462,599493,155493,15517.3%15.7%414,404479,465554,741641,836742,604568,42015.1%HCFC baseline = 131,615 CO2 eq. tonnes – its 65% will be included in the HFC baseline calculationHFCs consumption growth rate from 2018 to 2019 is 15.7% There are 3 growth rates in each country. The second growth rate is calculated in the condition where a country’s 2024 consumption is exactly equal with its baseline – just in compliance.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17. THANK YOU!