PPT-Conditional Probability. Expected Value

Miles Jones MTThF 830950am CSE 4140 August 29 2016 The Monty Hall Puzzle Whats the players best strategy Always swap B Always stay C Doesnt matter its 5050 Car hidden behind one of three doors. he year Design Value s based on the average of a 3 year period which includes the selected year plus the two prior years Also displayed is the following informat on for each year the umber of Complete Quarters for that year the 99 th Percentil samp A brief digression back to . joint probability: . i.e. . both events . O. . and. . H. occur. .  . Again, we can express joint probability in terms of their separate conditional and unconditional probabilities. Syllabus . Prior Knowledge: . Understanding of basic Probability theory. Numbers Up!. You win the number that. appears on the die in €. uro. €. 4 for a 4. €. 6 for a . 6 . etc. A funfair game called Numbers . Hubarth. Algebra II. Conditional probability . contain a condition that may limit the sample space for an event. You . can write a conditional probability using the notation P(B|A), read “ the probability of event B,. Alan Edelman. Oren . Mangoubi. , Bernie Wang. Mathematics. Computer Science & AI Labs. January 13, 2014. Talk Sandwich. Stories ``Lost and Found”: Random Matrices in the years 1955-1965. Integral Geometry Inspired Method for Conditional Sampling from Gaussian Ensembles. Chapter 13. Uncertainty in the World. An agent can often be uncertain about the state of the world/domain since there is often ambiguity and uncertainty. Plausible/. probabilistic inference. I’ve got this evidence; what’s the chance that this conclusion is true?. When collecting data, there are several methods:. Experimental Study: . The researcher takes actions to get results. Observational Study: . The researcher does not take actions, but simply watches to see results.. Sixth Edition. Douglas C. Montgomery George C. . Runger. Chapter 2 Title and Outline. 2. 2. Probability. 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events . 2-1.1 Random Experiments. 2-1.2 Sample Spaces . Sixth Edition. Douglas C. Montgomery George C. . Runger. Chapter 2 Title and Outline. 2. 2. Probability. 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events . 2-1.1 Random Experiments. 2-1.2 Sample Spaces . I . toss a penny and observe whether it lands heads up or tails up. Suppose the penny is fair, i.e., the probability of heads is 1/2 and the probability of tails is 1/2. This means. a. . every . occurrence of a head must be balanced by a tail in one of the next two or three tosses.. .  . .  . .  . .  . .  . .  . Announcements. Assignments:. HW9 (written). Due Tue 4/2, 10 pm. Optional Probability (online). Midterm:. Mon 4/8, in-class. Course Feedback:. See Piazza post for mid-semester survey. Syllabus . Prior Knowledge: . Understanding of basic Probability theory. Numbers Up!. You win the number that. appears on the die in €. uro. €. 4 for a 4. €. 6 for a . 6 . etc. A funfair game called Numbers . Coins game. Toss 3 coins. You win if . at least two . come out heads.. S. = { . HHH. , . HHT. , . HTH. , . HTT. , . THH. , . THT. , . TTH. , . TTT. }. W. = { . HHH. , . HHT. , . HTH. , . THH. }. Coins game. Bayes. and Independence. Computer Science cpsc322, Lecture 25. (Textbook . Chpt. . 6.1.3.1-2). Nov, 5, 2012. Lecture Overview. Recap Semantics of Probability. Marginalization. Conditional Probability.