Craig Stow Integrated Physical amp Ecological Modeling amp Forecasting Image from 82315 Phosphorus 1978 GLWQA Hear ye Hear ye By Joint Proclamation Henceforth and forever after ID: 781035
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Slide1
1/14
Large Lake Ecosystem Modeling & Prediction
Craig Stow
Integrated Physical & Ecological Modeling & Forecasting
Image from
8-23-15
^
Phosphorus
Slide21978 GLWQA
Hear ye! Hear ye!
By Joint Proclamation
Henceforth and forever afterThe Lake Erie phosphorus load shall not exceed:
11,000 tonnes/year
which probably translates to about 15 ug
/L
4 Models provided guidance:
Vollenweider
,
DiToro et al., Chapra, Bierman et al.Supported by info/technology available at that time
Slide3Mission Accomplished !
1986
Slide4Mission Accomplished !
1986
Slide5Mission Accomplished !
Image from
8-23-15
1986
Slide6Target generally met since 1990s
increase in western basin HABs
Lake Erie Total Phosphorus Loading, 1967-2011
IPEMF
| Large Lake Ecosystem Modeling & Prediction
6/14
Slide72012 – New GLWQA
Annex 4 - Nutrients
Six Lake Ecosystem Objectives
Update Substance Objectives (target concentrations)
Update Phosphorus Load TargetsDo this for Lake Erie within 3 years (February 2016)Annex 4 Subcommittee has been meeting regularly since late 2013
Recommended Phosphorus Loading Targets Report - May 2015Developed using 9 parallel models
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| Large Lake Ecosystem Modeling & Prediction
7/14
Slide8IPEMF
| Large Lake Ecosystem Modeling & Prediction
8/14
2012
– New GLWQA
Slide99/14
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Science Advisory Board – review modeling process - December 2014
Stow (2015).
JGLR.
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Greater model complexity = greater predictive accuracy?
Results equivocal
As a community we are not very good about assessing, reporting accuracy/reliability
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| Large Lake Ecosystem Modeling & Prediction
Future
Directions
Develop, test models of differing complexity, evaluate relative performance
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| Large Lake Ecosystem Modeling & Prediction
It is not appropriate to ask whether a model is right or wrong.
Instead we should ask:
What is its domain of utility?
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IPEMF
| Large Lake Ecosystem Modeling & Prediction
Clear implications for developing models for transition to operations
Draws on strengths (Modeling, Observations, Process Research)
Supports our HABs programServe a long-term need in the Great Lakes community
Partners Essential – Federal, State, Provincial Agencies, Academia
GLERL has expertise in
fine-scale,
simulation
modeling:
and contemporary, probabilistic approaches:
Slide14IPEMF
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Large Lake Ecosystem Modeling & Prediction
An integrated approach to studying HABs
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IPEMF
| Large Lake Ecosystem Modeling & Prediction
Thank You
Questions?
Place Photo Here
Phosphorus
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