PPT-Probability in Propagation

Transmission Rates Models discussed so far assume a 100 transmission rate to susceptible individuals eg Firefighter problem Almost no diseases are this contagious Whooping cough 90 transmission rate. How to snag that DX!. Michael Smith, N5TGL. Agenda. Purpose. Three Magic words. Understanding . Propagation. Propagation modes. How . solar activity impacts the ionosphere. Learning . the numbers. A and K index, SFI, 304A, . Adames. , A. F., J. M. Wallace, and J. M. Monteiro, 2016: Seasonality of the structure and propagation characteristics of the MJO. . J. Atmos. Sci.. , . 73. , 3511–3526.. Introduction. the convective centers in the MJO shift seasonally toward the summer hemisphere, following the belt of highest sea surface temperature (SST). . calculus. 1 ≥ . Pr. (h) ≥ 0. If e deductively implies h, then Pr(h|e) = 1. .. (disjunction rule) If h and g are mutually exclusive, then . Pr. (h or g) = . Pr. (h) . Pr. (g). (disjunction rule) If h and g are . Probability Terminology. Classical Interpretation. : Notion of probability based on equal likelihood of individual possibilities (coin toss has 1/2 chance of Heads, card draw has 4/52 chance of an Ace). Origins in games of chance.. 4. Introduction. (slide 1 of 3). A key . aspect of solving real business problems is dealing appropriately with uncertainty.. This involves recognizing explicitly that uncertainty exists and using quantitative methods to model uncertainty.. What we learned last class…. We are not good at recognizing/dealing with randomness. Our “random” coin flip results weren’t streaky enough.. If B/G results behave like independent coin flips, we know how many families to EXPECT with 0,1,2,3,4 girls.. Slide . 2. Probability - Terminology. Events are the . number. of possible outcome of a phenomenon such as the roll of a die or a fillip of a coin.. “trials” are a coin flip or die roll. Slide . Sixth Edition. Douglas C. Montgomery George C. . Runger. Chapter 2 Title and Outline. 2. 2. Probability. 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events . 2-1.1 Random Experiments. 2-1.2 Sample Spaces . Sixth Edition. Douglas C. Montgomery George C. . Runger. Chapter 2 Title and Outline. 2. 2. Probability. 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events . 2-1.1 Random Experiments. 2-1.2 Sample Spaces . A value between zero and one that describe the relative possibility(change or likelihood) an event occurs.. The MEF announces that in 2012 the change Cambodia economic growth rate is equal to 7% is 80%.. Plant Propagation Plant Propagation The process of increasing the numbers of a species, maintaining a species, or preserving the vigor of a plant. Successful Plant Propagation Knowledge of technical skills Probability and Probability Distribution Dr Manoj Kumar Bhambu GCCBA-42, Chandigarh M- +91-988-823-7733 mkbhambu@hotmail.com Probability and Probability Distribution: Definitions- Probability Rules –Application of Probability To clear up common . misconceptions. about plant propagation and . inspire . you to try. . it.. Provide . information. and . resources. from personal . experience. .. Plant propagation. will . always challenge you, but it doesn’t . 4. Interpret probability as a long-run relative frequency. . Dispel . common myths about randomness.. Use . simulation to model chance behavior.. Randomness, Probability, and Simulation. Randomness, Probability, and Simulation.