A Cost Benefit Analysis Prepared for Brian Bell Elections Data Manager Government Accountability Board By Dorothy Cheng Brett Halverson John Magnino Daniel Marlin Matthew Mayeshiba ID: 541770
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Voter List Maintenance
A Cost Benefit AnalysisPrepared for Brian Bell, Elections Data ManagerGovernment Accountability Board
By: Dorothy Cheng, Brett Halverson,
John
Magnino
, Daniel Marlin,
Matthew
Mayeshiba
, Mai
Choua
ThaoSlide2
What is it?Process of suspending inaccurate or inactive voter registrations
Why do it?Maintaining accurate voter recordsAdministrative cost savingsIn Wisconsin, VLM is mandated by state statute
Voter List Maintenance (VLM) – An OverviewSlide3
VLM in PracticeSlide4
1. Current Policy
(GAB Mass Mailing)2. GAB Use of the Postal Service’s National Change of Address (NCOA) Database3. Municipal Use of Mass Mailing4. Municipal Use of USPS NCOA Database
Policy AlternativesSlide5
Cost of postage 17% increase
Cost of printing336% increaseCost of NCOA$53,000 across 1,047 municipalities
Costs of Municipal-Level AlternativesSlide6
1. Current Policy
(GAB Mass Mailing)2. GAB Use of the Postal Service’s National Change of Address (NCOA) Database3. Municipal Use of Mass Mailing4. Municipal Use of USPS NCOA Database
Policy Alternatives
3. GAB
Use of
Mass Mailing and
USPS NCOA Database (Hybrid Option)Slide7
Current Policy
No vote cast in election
2014
No vote cast in election
2016
GAB sends “Notice of Suspension” postcard to address on file
Spring 2017Slide8
NCOA Alternative
Voter moves
Voter not flagged by NCOA
GAB sends “Notice of Suspension” postcard to address on file
Voter does not move
Voter flagged by NCOA
Voter stays on voter rolls indefinitely
2014
Within 6 monthsSlide9
Hybrid Option
Voter moves
Voter not flagged by NCOA
GAB sends “Notice of Suspension” postcard to address on file
Voter does not move
Voter flagged by NCOA
2014
Within 6 months
No vote cast in two consecutive election cycles
GAB sends “Notice of Suspension” postcard to address on file
2014 through 2016
2017Slide10
Mailing Process (All Alternatives)
Postcards Sent by GAB
Voter sends postcard back to continue registration
Postcard returned as undeliverable
Postcard is delivered, but not returned
Municipal Clerk processes continuation
Municipal Clerk inactivates voter registration
After 30 days, GAB inactivates voter registrationSlide11
VLM in PracticeSlide12
NCOA Startup Costs ($14,000)NCOA Contract ($5,750)
Printing and Mailing One Postcard ($0.30)Staff Costs from Processing One PostcardContinuation ($0.96)Undeliverable ($1.09)Unreturned ($0.00)
Costs of VLMSlide13
Type I error: Cost of Incorrectly Leaving One Invalid Voter on the Voter Rolls ($0.05)
Type II error: Cost of Incorrectly Inactivating a Valid Voter from the Voter Rolls ($8.36)Costs of VLM (continued)Slide14
Results: Net Present ValueSlide15
Staff time costs associated with processing undeliverable
postcardsQuantifying Type II errorsAdditional social cost of errorsVoter fraudDisenfranchisement
LimitationsSlide16
Questions?Slide17
Table 1. Number of Postcards Sent After the 2012 General Election, by Municipal-Level
Range
Number of Municipalities
Percent of All Municipalities
Number of Postcards Sent
Percent of Total Postcards Sent
0 to 19
408
21.35%
4294
1.43%
20 to 39
522
27.32%
15389
5.13%
40 to 59
301
15.75%
14696
4.90%
60 to 79
163
8.53%
11144
3.72%
80 to 99
99
5.18%
8827
2.94%
100 to 249
234
12.24%
35564
11.86%
250 to 499
95
4.97%
32412
10.81%
500 to 999
46
2.41%
30631
10.22%
1000 to 7000
41
2.15%
89042
29.71%
over 7000
2
0.10%
57749
19.27%
Total
1911
--
299748
--
Source: 2012-2013 Four-Year Voter Record Maintenance Statistics by Municipality, Compiled by the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board (GAB) on May 16, 2013.
Rule Out Municipal-Level PoliciesSlide18
Table 2. Number of Postcards Sent After the 2012 General Election, by County-Level
Range
Number of Counties
Percent of All Counties
Number of Postcards Sent
Percent of Total Postcards Sent
300 to 999
22
30.56%
15465
5.16%
1000 to 1999
14
19.44%
19552
6.52%
2000 to 4999
22
30.56%
70811
23.62%
5000 to 9999
9
12.50%
66861
22.31%
over 10000
5
6.94%
127059
42.39%
Total
72
--
299748
--
Source: 2012-2013 Four-Year Voter Record Maintenance Statistics by County, Compiled by the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board (GAB) on May 16, 2013.
Rule Out County-Level policiesSlide19
Table 6.2-1. Percent of Voters Identified As Inactive
Date of List Maintenance
Registered Voters
Postcards Sent
Percentage
February 1, 2009
3,502,196
313,205
12.52%
April 14, 2011
3,493,927
240,226
6.88%
March 25, 2013
3,690,529
299,748
8.12%
VLM Across TimeSlide20
Table 6.2-2. Percent of Voters Registered with the NCOA
State - Date of NCOA
Registered Voters
Voters Identified
Percentage
Minnesota - 2012
3,387,783
115,129
3.40%
Ohio - 2012
6,031,860
296,327
4.91%
% of Voters Registered with NCOASlide21
Number of names per poll book sheet
20
Average unit cost of printing poll book sheet
$.15467
Number of poll books per polling place
2
Average Number of elections in a year
3
Type I Error Marginal Cost
$.046
Type I Error Costs Slide22
Net Benefits Equation
Slide23
Cost of Printing Notification Postcards
Cost of Mailing Notification Postcards
Slide24
Cost of Processing Returned Postcards
Slide25
Type I Errors = Cost
of Failing to Remove Ineligible Voters
Slide26
Type II
Errors = Cost of Incorrectly Removing Voters Who Have Not Moved
Slide27
Annual CostsSlide28
Projected Total Costs of Current PolicySlide29
Projected Net Present Benefits of NCOA-
Only AlternativeSlide30
Projected Net Present Benefits of Hybrid Option