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Voter List Maintenance
Voter List Maintenance

Voter List Maintenance - PowerPoint Presentation

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A Cost Benefit Analysis Prepared for Brian Bell Elections Data Manager Government Accountability Board By Dorothy Cheng Brett Halverson John Magnino Daniel Marlin Matthew Mayeshiba ID: 541770 Download Presentation

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Presentation on theme: "Voter List Maintenance"— Presentation transcript

Slide1

Voter List Maintenance

A Cost Benefit AnalysisPrepared for Brian Bell, Elections Data ManagerGovernment Accountability Board

By: Dorothy Cheng, Brett Halverson,

John

Magnino

, Daniel Marlin,

Matthew

Mayeshiba

, Mai

Choua

ThaoSlide2

What is it?Process of suspending inaccurate or inactive voter registrations

Why do it?Maintaining accurate voter recordsAdministrative cost savingsIn Wisconsin, VLM is mandated by state statute

Voter List Maintenance (VLM) – An OverviewSlide3

VLM in PracticeSlide4

1. Current Policy

(GAB Mass Mailing)2. GAB Use of the Postal Service’s National Change of Address (NCOA) Database3. Municipal Use of Mass Mailing4. Municipal Use of USPS NCOA Database

Policy AlternativesSlide5

Cost of postage 17% increase

Cost of printing336% increaseCost of NCOA$53,000 across 1,047 municipalities

Costs of Municipal-Level AlternativesSlide6

1. Current Policy

(GAB Mass Mailing)2. GAB Use of the Postal Service’s National Change of Address (NCOA) Database3. Municipal Use of Mass Mailing4. Municipal Use of USPS NCOA Database

Policy Alternatives

3. GAB

Use of

Mass Mailing and

USPS NCOA Database (Hybrid Option)Slide7

Current Policy

No vote cast in election

2014

No vote cast in election

2016

GAB sends “Notice of Suspension” postcard to address on file

Spring 2017Slide8

NCOA Alternative

Voter moves

Voter not flagged by NCOA

GAB sends “Notice of Suspension” postcard to address on file

Voter does not move

Voter flagged by NCOA

Voter stays on voter rolls indefinitely

2014

Within 6 monthsSlide9

Hybrid Option

Voter moves

Voter not flagged by NCOA

GAB sends “Notice of Suspension” postcard to address on file

Voter does not move

Voter flagged by NCOA

2014

Within 6 months

No vote cast in two consecutive election cycles

GAB sends “Notice of Suspension” postcard to address on file

2014 through 2016

2017Slide10

Mailing Process (All Alternatives)

Postcards Sent by GAB

Voter sends postcard back to continue registration

Postcard returned as undeliverable

Postcard is delivered, but not returned

Municipal Clerk processes continuation

Municipal Clerk inactivates voter registration

After 30 days, GAB inactivates voter registrationSlide11

VLM in PracticeSlide12

NCOA Startup Costs ($14,000)NCOA Contract ($5,750)

Printing and Mailing One Postcard ($0.30)Staff Costs from Processing One PostcardContinuation ($0.96)Undeliverable ($1.09)Unreturned ($0.00)

Costs of VLMSlide13

Type I error: Cost of Incorrectly Leaving One Invalid Voter on the Voter Rolls ($0.05)

Type II error: Cost of Incorrectly Inactivating a Valid Voter from the Voter Rolls ($8.36)Costs of VLM (continued)Slide14

Results: Net Present ValueSlide15

Staff time costs associated with processing undeliverable

postcardsQuantifying Type II errorsAdditional social cost of errorsVoter fraudDisenfranchisement

LimitationsSlide16

Questions?Slide17

Table 1. Number of Postcards Sent After the 2012 General Election, by Municipal-Level

Range

Number of Municipalities

Percent of All Municipalities

Number of Postcards Sent

Percent of Total Postcards Sent

0 to 19

408

21.35%

4294

1.43%

20 to 39

522

27.32%

15389

5.13%

40 to 59

301

15.75%

14696

4.90%

60 to 79

163

8.53%

11144

3.72%

80 to 99

99

5.18%

8827

2.94%

100 to 249

234

12.24%

35564

11.86%

250 to 499

95

4.97%

32412

10.81%

500 to 999

46

2.41%

30631

10.22%

1000 to 7000

41

2.15%

89042

29.71%

over 7000

2

0.10%

57749

19.27%

Total

1911

--

299748

--

Source: 2012-2013 Four-Year Voter Record Maintenance Statistics by Municipality, Compiled by the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board (GAB) on May 16, 2013.

Rule Out Municipal-Level PoliciesSlide18

Table 2. Number of Postcards Sent After the 2012 General Election, by County-Level

Range

Number of Counties

Percent of All Counties

Number of Postcards Sent

Percent of Total Postcards Sent

300 to 999

22

30.56%

15465

5.16%

1000 to 1999

14

19.44%

19552

6.52%

2000 to 4999

22

30.56%

70811

23.62%

5000 to 9999

9

12.50%

66861

22.31%

over 10000

5

6.94%

127059

42.39%

Total

72

--

299748

--

Source: 2012-2013 Four-Year Voter Record Maintenance Statistics by County, Compiled by the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board (GAB) on May 16, 2013.

Rule Out County-Level policiesSlide19

Table 6.2-1. Percent of Voters Identified As Inactive

Date of List Maintenance

Registered Voters

Postcards Sent

Percentage

February 1, 2009

3,502,196

313,205

12.52%

April 14, 2011

3,493,927

240,226

6.88%

March 25, 2013

3,690,529

299,748

8.12%

VLM Across TimeSlide20

Table 6.2-2. Percent of Voters Registered with the NCOA

State - Date of NCOA

Registered Voters

Voters Identified

Percentage

Minnesota - 2012

3,387,783

115,129

3.40%

Ohio - 2012

6,031,860

296,327

4.91%

% of Voters Registered with NCOASlide21

Number of names per poll book sheet

20

Average unit cost of printing poll book sheet

$.15467

Number of poll books per polling place

2

Average Number of elections in a year

3

Type I Error Marginal Cost

$.046

Type I Error Costs Slide22

Net Benefits Equation

 Slide23

Cost of Printing Notification Postcards

Cost of Mailing Notification Postcards

 

 Slide24

Cost of Processing Returned Postcards

 Slide25

Type I Errors = Cost

of Failing to Remove Ineligible Voters

 Slide26

Type II

Errors = Cost of Incorrectly Removing Voters Who Have Not Moved

 Slide27

Annual CostsSlide28

Projected Total Costs of Current PolicySlide29

Projected Net Present Benefits of NCOA-

Only AlternativeSlide30

Projected Net Present Benefits of Hybrid Option