Climate Change Impacts on Plant Distribution and Diversity Zhiheng Wang 王志恒 Zhihengwangpkueducn 15052014 PKU Beijing Department of Ecology College of Urban and Environmental Sciences ID: 806658
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Slide1
气候变化对植物分布与多样性的影响Climate Change Impacts on Plant Distribution and Diversity
Zhiheng Wang (王志恒)Zhiheng.wang@pku.edu.cn15.05.2014 @ PKU, Beijing
Department of EcologyCollege of Urban and Environmental SciencesPeking University
Slide2OutlineWhat’s macroecology (
宏观生态学)Deep-time climate changes and plant evolutionImpacts of climate changes since the LGM on plant diversityThreats of global warming
in 20th and 21st centuries
on plant diversity
Slide3Science 1989
1995
James H. Brown
Central question
:
mechanisms of patterns in life distribution and diversity in space and time
Scale:
regional
–> global
Methods:
hypothesis testing
+
quantitative statistics
+
comparative
phylogenetics
Macroecology
is young, but it is one of most active sub-disciplines of ecology.
宏观生态学是生态学中年轻、但最活跃的分支之一
一、宏观生态学
(
macroecology
)
Slide4影响因子
年份
Beck et al. 2012
Major Journals for
macroecology
:
Journal of Biogeography
(IF: 4.9)
Ecography
(IF: 5.1)
Global Ecology & Biogeography
(
IF: 7.2)
Diversity & Distributions
(IF: 6.1)
宏观生态学
(
macroecology
)
宏观生态学
生物地理学
学科基础
生态学
地理学
研究内容
物种分布和多样性格局的形成机制
物种和多样性的地理格局
侧重点
生物分布与环境和进化的关系
生物分布的格局与样式
方法
定量
定性
Slide5Global climate changes
Eocene climatic optimum (55 ma)
Mid-Cretaceous Greenhouse (90-100 ma)
Clarke et al. 1999. Geology
Sea surface temperature changes
Slide6Zachos
et al. 2001.
Science
,
292
,
686-693
Global climate changes
Temperature (
℃
)
Age
(Ma)
Eocene climatic optimum (55 ma)
Eocene-Oligocene transition (34 ma)
Quaternary
(2.3 ma)
Slide7Climate change impact on species diversity
Speciation
Extinction
Dispersal
Long-term
geological history
1-100 Ma
√
√
√
Long-term
geological history
< 1 Ma
√
√
Short-term
industrial evolution
1-100 years
√
√
Short-term
current century
1-100 years
√
√
Fossil records and paleontological methods
DNA data and comparative phylogenetic methods
Slide8Deep-time
climatic optimum and plant diversification
Crepet
et al. 2009. Am J Bot
Global speciation rate of plants based on fossil evidence
Slide9Jaramillo et al. 2010. Science
n
ew sp.
extinct sp.
Deep-time climatic optimum and plant diversification
Slide10Zachos
et al. 2001.
Science
, 292, 686-693
Eocene-Oligocene transition
Temperature (
℃
)
Age
(Ma)
Eocene-Oligocene transition (34 ma)
Slide11Eocene-Oligocene transition (ca. 34 Ma)
Slide12Zanazzi
et al. 2007 Nature
Eocene-Oligocene transition (ca. 34 Ma)
Slide13Effects of Eocene-Oligocene transition
Global mammal extinction
33.4 Ma
Hooker et al. 2004.
J
Geolog
Soc
Fossil records of North European mammals
old
young
Eocene–Oligocene extinction
event
Grande
Coupure
(great break)
Slide14Effects of Eocene-Oligocene transition
Plant molecular evolutionary rateRhododendron
Quercus
Slide15Evolution of RhododendronZhiheng Wang, Xiaoting Xu, Peking Univ., ChinaDimitar Dimitra, Oslo Univ., NorwayAlexandre Antonelli, Univ. of Gothenburg, SwedenKatsuhiro
Nakao, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, JapanAlexandra Muellner-Riehl, Univ. of Leipzig, Germany
Slide16Biogeography of Rhododendron
Distribution
: Northern Hemisphere
Diversification
Originated in late Cretaceous to early
Paleogene
(50-70
mya
)
Species diversity
: c.a. 900
sp
; c.a. 550
sp
in China
Slide17Sequence data from GenBank388 species16 genes: atpB-rbcL, rbcL,
matK, ndhF, psbA-trnH, trnL-F, trnL, trnT-trnL, trnS-trnG, ITS, RPB2I-1, RPB2I-2, RPB2I-3, RPB2I-4, RPB2I-5, RPB2I-6
Biogeography of Rhododendron
Evolutionary rate of
Rhododendorn
Age (Ma)
Substitution rate
Slide18Question: What’s the mechanism of the high Rhododendron species diversity?
Biogeography of Rhododendron
Hypothesis:
1) It has been believed that the rapid diversification of Rhododendron was enhanced by the
rise of Tibetan Plateau at ca. 30 – 40
M
a
.
2) Global
climate shifted from Eocene greenhouse to Oligocene icehouse
at 34 Ma
. Cool climate led to the expansion of temperate vegetation, and then the diversification of Rhododendron.
Temperature (
℃
)
Age
(Ma)
Eocene-Oligocene transition (34 ma)
Slide19Expectation of Hypothesis 1Evolutionary rate is high during the period of the collision between Indian subcontinent and Eurasia, and the clades originated in association with the collision (those in southwest China) have high evolutionary rate. Expectation of Hypothesis 2Evolutionary rate is high during the period of the collision between Indian subcontinent and Eurasia, and the clades experienced high climatic changes (those in the north) have
high evolutionary rate.
Biogeography of Rhododendron
Slide20Biogeography of Rhododendron
Molecular evolutionary rate of
d
ifferent clades
Age (Ma)
Substitution rate
Clade 1
Clade 2
Clade 3
Clade 4
Clade 5
Clade 6
Clade 7
34 Ma
Slide21Evolution of QuercusXiaoting Xu, Peking Univ., ChinaDimitar Dimitra, Oslo Univ., Norway
Slide22北温带森林的优势树种
ca.
4
50 spp., 407 spp.
i
ncluded
186
本植物
志、数据库和发表文献
进化速率与栎属物种多样性分化
Global pattern of oak (
Quercus
) diversity
Slide23Supermatrix
: 11 genes, 40
× 9528
Gaps
：小于
50%
linked Clock model
序列
序列
alignment
：
mafft
--
一致性序列构
建（
consensus sequences)
进化树构
建
Maximum likelihood method
RAxML
-HPC version
7.4.2
定年
Beast 1.7.4化石
校正
分子进化速率的时间变化
Slide24栎属分子进化速率的时间变化
11 genes
40 sp.× 9528
bp
缺失数据：
<50%
BESAT
: Link Clock model
Slide25Climate change impact on species diversity
Speciation
Extinction
Dispersal
Long-term
geological history
1-100 Ma
√
√
√
Long-term
geological history
< 1 Ma
√
√
Short-term
industrial evolution
1-100 years
√
√
Short-term
current century
1-100 years
√
√
Quaternary climate change
Climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum
Slide26Lorenzen, et al. 2011. Nature
Modeled distribution and population size
of
megafauna
species at 42, 30, 21 and 6
kyr
BP.
Effective population size
Effective population size was estimated by population genetic methods based on ancient DNA.
Slide27Influences of climate change since the LGM on Chinese woody plant diversityYaoqi LiXiaoting XuZhiheng Wang
Slide28From “Database of China’s Woody Plants (v2.0)”
● compiled from more than 320 national and provincial floras, many local floras and specimen records● examined by 21 local experts of plants● c.a. 6 years●
Taxonomy: Flora of China (English version)
● Specimen records + observation data
●
S
pecies
number
:
11405
Specimen records
observation data
Data of plant distributions
Slide29Climate change impacts on Chinese plant diversity
Mean winter temperature
Anomaly of mean annual temperature since the LGM
Anomaly = LGM MAT – Modern MAT
Modern climate
Precipitation
Temperature
LGM climate
data was
hindcasted
by Community Climate System Model (CCSM
).
Slide30Climate change impacts on Chinese plant diversity
Method: Geographically
weighted regression
(GWR)
Local R
2
of temperature anomaly
Local R
2
of modern climate
Slide31东南地区，anomaly
的解释率较大；横断山脉地区，MTCQ的解释率较大；东北地区，两者的解释率无明显差异在大部分区域，anomaly
的解释率比MAT高
秦岭、吕梁、太行山地区，MAP
的解释率明显高于
anomaly
Climate change impacts on Chinese plant diversity
R
2
difference
Anomaly – MAT
Anomaly – winter T
Anomaly – MAP
Temperature change since the LGM explains more richness variation than modern climate in southeastern China.
Slide32Principal component analysis of modern climate
Energy:
MAT + Bio4(
Temperature Seasonality ) + PET
Water:
MAP + Bio15(Precipitation Seasonality) + AET
80.22
% of total variance
Energy
PC 1
Water PC 1
86.67
% of total variance
R
2
of energy PC 1
Anomaly - energy PC 1
R
2
of water PC 1
Anomaly - water PC 1
Temperature change since the LGM explains more richness variation than modern climate in southeastern China.
Slide33Influences of climate change since the LGM on Chinese vegetationSiyang WangZhiheng Wang
Slide34Model evaluation
LGM & pollen data
steppeBroadleaved evergreen/warm mixed forestdeserttemperate deciduous forest
taiga
Data: 1) 1:1,000,000 vegetation map
2) LGM
climate data was
hindcasted
by Community Climate System Model (CCSM)
.
Method: species distribution models
Slide35Results(1): LGM vegetation distribution
LGM
Modern
Slide36Results(1): LGM vegetation distribution
Transformation
LGM
modern
*
Substantial
contraction: tropical rainforest and monsoon forest, temperate
needleleaf
-broadleaf mixed forest, temperate deciduous scrub
Slide37Results(1): LGM vegetation distribution
Forests move northward since the LGM
Veget1: Cool and temperate coniferous forest
Veget6: Temperate
deciduous
forest
modern
distrib
Steppe and
desert contracted
Veget16
:
temperate steppe
veget22: alpine
tundra
LGM
distrib
.
LGM
distrib
.
Slide38Climate change impact on species diversity
Speciation
Extinction
Dispersal
Long-term
geological history
1-100 Ma
√
√
√
Long-term
geological history
< 1 Ma
√
√
Short-term
industrial evolution
1-100 years
√
√
Short-term
current century
1-100 years
√
√
Slide39Recent climate change
IPCC report V, 2013
Slide40IPCC report V, 2013
Recent climate change
Slide41Plants track climate change
Plant species move upward along French Alpine
Speed: 29 m/decadeLenoir et al. 2008. Science
period 1: 1905-1985period 2: 1985-2005
Slide42Plants track climate change
Plant traits affect moving speed
Lenoir et al. 2008. Science
Slide43Plants track climate change
Chen et al. 2011. Science
Spider Ground beetlesButterfly
Grass-hopperNorthern boundary of species distribution moves northward in UK.
Speed: 16.9 km/decade
Slide44Species diversity changes in
Changbai Mts.
Time period: 1963 – 2006
Species diversity declined at the same environment.
Slide45Climate change impact on species diversity
Speciation
Extinction
Dispersal
Long-term
geological history
1-100 Ma
√
√
√
Long-term
geological history
< 1 Ma
√
√
Short-term
industrial evolution
1-100 years
√
√
Short-term
current century
1-100 years
√
√
Slide46Source: Wang et al. 2010
China temperature change
Source: National Climatic Data Center, US
Global temperature change
How climate change influences plants in China
?
Global warming changes the habitat, growth,
phenology
and distribution ranges of organisms, and may lead to migration or extinction
5
Ongoing project
Threats of climate change on woody plant diversity
Slide47Source and variables
From the WorldClim websiteResolution: 2.5
× 2.5 arc minVariables: Bio1 – Bio19
Current and future climate data
Scenarios of future climate
A1B:
maximum energy requirements, balance across fuel sources
A2:
high energy requirements
B2:
lower energy requirements
Precipitation
Temperature
Climate change
Current climate
Climate in 2080 (A2)
Slide48Model calibration
1) Generalized linear model (GLM) with binomial residuals2) Maximum entropy (Maxent)3) Classification tree (CT)
Models1) Stepwise regression using GLM for a species
Si: forward + backward2) Select a subset of variables for
S
i
based on
Akaike information criterion (AIC)3) The selected
subset of variables were used for
Maxent
and CT
Variable selection
Species with range size > 20 grid cells
7437 species in total
Species selection
modeled species
all species
Slide49Present richness patterns
(1950 – 2000)
Projections in 2080 – 2100
A2
A1
B
B2
Projected species richness patterns
Changes in species richness
1.
Vulnerable areas
: central to east and south China
2.
Benefited areas
: Tibetan Plateau
Vulnerable vs. benefited areas
Results
Wang
el al
. in preparation
最大能量消耗
能源均衡发展
高能量消耗
低能量消耗
Decline
No change
Increase
Slide50Hengduan
Wuyi
North
Taihang
North
Daxing’an
Changbai
Kunlun-Qilian
Projected species movement
Predicted species dispersal
Elevation change
Latitude change
Present
Future
Based on the second threshold method
Slide51Acknowledgements
Prof. Jingyun FangProf. Bernhard SchmidProf. Carsten
RahbekDr. Xiaoting Xu
Thank
you for your
attention
Dr.
Zhiyao
Tang
Dr.
Yining
Liu
Dr.
Xiujuan
Qiao
Dr.
Zhaodi
Guo
Dr.
Luying
Tang
The 21 experts who reviewed the species distribution data
Slide52Bowen et al. 2004. Science
Two
periods of climatic optimum
Eocene climatic optimum (55 ma)
Mid-Cretaceous Greenhouse (90-100 ma)