Observing indirect indications of climate change P H E N O L O G y 1 Part one What is Phenology P H E N O L O G y Phenology is the branch of ecology that explores the seasonal timing of life cycle events ID: 1044257
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1. Plant and Animal PhenologyObserving indirect indications of climate changePHENOLOGy1
2. Part one: What is Phenology?PHENOLOGyPhenology is the branch of ecology that explores the seasonal timing of life cycle events.the study of the relationships between living organisms and their interactions with their natural or developed environmentthe series of changes of form and activity that a living organism undergoes from its beginning through its development to sexual maturity2
3. Part one: What is Phenology?Story of Phenologyhttp://climatewisconsin.org/story/phenology PHENOLOGy3
4. Phenological ObservationsPlant SpeciesAldo’s 1st Bloom1935-1945Julian Date (Aldo)Nina’s 1st Bloom1997-2007Julian Date (Nina)Nina’s date compared toAldo’s datePasque flowerApril 19110April 79812 days earlierLupineMay 20141May 131347 EShooting starMay 22143May 1013112 ESpiderwortJune 2153May 251467 EBlack-eyed SusanJune 22174June 131659 EButterfly weedJuly 5187June 21173 BergamotJuly 12194July 3185 Yellow coneflowerJuly 14196June 30182 Compass plantJuly 15197June 25177 Prairie dockJuly 19201July 15197 Big bluestemJuly 30212July 24206 New England AsterAugust 21234August 27240 Stiff goldenrodAugust 27240August 9222 14 E 9 E14 E20 E 4 E 6 E 6 L18 EPHENOLOGy4
5. Phenological ObservationsHow many species did Nina see bloom earlier than Aldo did? 2. How many did Nina see bloom later? 3. Which flowers have changed their schedules the most? 13Only 1Compass plant, Stiff goldenrod, butterfly weed, yellow coneflower5PHENOLOGy
6. Phenological Observations 4. Can you think of reasons why many flowers bloom earlier now than in the 1930s? The differences may be due to the warmer average temperatures that are now occurring, compared to 60 years ago. The exact dates that plants bloom will change from year to year, but overall, on average, flowers are blooming earlier. 6PHENOLOGy
7. Phenological Observations 5. Are there any exceptions to that generalization? Why might this happen? The New England Aster could be blooming later because this species has always bloomed in early fall. It may get its environmental clue by sensing the first cold days after a long series of warm days (and since the cooler temperatures of fall now come later, so does the onset of flowering for this species).7PHENOLOGy
8. Agriculture and Economy What are some important crops in Michigan? Michigan is the second most agriculturally diverse state in the nation; Michigan ranks number one in production for tart cherries, pickling cucumbers, geraniums, petunias and squash, second for beans, carrots, celery and plums, and third for apples and asparagus. A change in planting and harvest time, altered growing season8What might be the connections of climate change to plant life cycles? PHENOLOGy
9. Agriculture and Economy What might be the consequences of changing precipitation patterns? Less rain in the summer will affect ability of plants to grow and mature; this might also affect the health of insects and/or birds and other wildlifeA change in timing of weather conditions and plant or animal activity might have implications for hunting, fishing, and many other kinds of tourism which add up to a multi-million-dollar boost to the Michigan economy.9How might differences in the timing of weather events affect other aspects of the Michigan economy?PHENOLOGy
10. Plant Hardiness ZonesSource: EPA Climate Change Indicators in the United States, 2010. http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/ Animation from the National Arbor Day Foundation: http://www.arborday.org/media/mapchanges.cfm10PHENOLOGy
11. CASESTUDYMichigan Cherriesand Climate ChangePhoto source: http://www.arborday.org/treeguide/TreeDetail.cfm?id=9511
12. CASESTUDYMichigan Cherriesand Climate Change12As phenological changes occur, such as earlier bloom dates, how might this affect plant/pollinator relationships?Questions for discussion:
13. CASESTUDYMichigan Cherriesand Climate Change13For crops other than cherries, what could the implication be as pests that typically thrive in more southern climates are able to thrive further north, potentially in Michigan?Questions for discussion:
14. CASESTUDYMichigan Cherriesand Climate Change14What are some innovative ideas that farmers could implement to combat the changes that are occurring or are projected to occur as a result of climate change?Questions for discussion:
15. CASESTUDYMichigan Cherriesand Climate Change15How do you think phenological data will help us further understand climate change in Michigan?Questions for thought:
16. CASESTUDYMichigan Cherriesand Climate Change16What might be some ecosystem and species-survival challenges if some parts of an ecosystem change the timing of their biological events, but others do not?Questions for thought: