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Presentation on theme: "Nuclear Power Market in India: Status and Outlook"— Presentation transcript:
Slide1
Nuclear Power Market in India: Status and Outlook
Vijay K. Sazawal, Ph.D.
July
21
,
2015
Disclaimer: Opinions expressed by the author are solely attributable to him and not to any affiliated company
Slide2
Presentation Segments
Past
Present
Future
Bottom Line
Slide3
Past
India had the most advanced nuclear program in the entire Asia until 1960’s
1954: Organized a global meeting in New Delhi on nuclear power
for peaceful purposes
to announce its 3-stage nuclear program
1955: India chaired the Geneva Conference which was a prelude to the formation of the IAEA
1955: Designed the first industrial scale
1 MW reactor
that began operating in 1956 using enriched uranium and technical support provided by UKAEA
1955: The U.S. Joint Committee on Atomic Energy visited India and offered Heavy Water to the Indian nuclear program
1960: CIRUS, a 40 MW reactor, attains criticality (Canada-India-US partnership)
1963: India signs with GE and Bechtel for the first two LWR’s in Asia
1969: TAPS 1 & 2
(both BWR’s) begin
operations
Slide4
Present - 1
India has the largest electric power grid in any
developin
g nation
It
has 14
th
largest power system in the
world
IMF
says in 2015-2016, Indian growth rate will be 7.5%, and
its industrial revolution has hardly
begun
Indian
population will exceed China’s in the next
decade
India is among the top greenhouse gas polluters in the
world
2020
: China (24%), U.S. (13%), EU (8%), and India (7
%)
India
is making public commitments to change its energy mix by increasing dependence on clean
energy
IAEA, EIA, WNA,
Ux
Consulting …
Global
growth of nuclear power will be driven by non-OECD
countries
2/3
of all new nuclear builds will be in China, Russia, India and South
Korea
McKinsey India Report
2014
“India
will be one of the most energy import dependent large
economies”
Nuclear
capacity will jump from 5.5 GW (2% of total power supply) in 2010 to 23 GW (7%) in 2030, and 25% by
2050
Indian
power production lags total power demand by 9-10
%
India has 21 reactors in commercial operations, 6 under construction, 4 licensed to start construction and another 6 in advanced stages of securing construction licenses
Slide5
Present - 2
Following the agreement-in-principle on the 123 Agreement with the U.S., the Indian government announced plans for expansion of nuclear power to 63,000 MW by 2032, out of which 40,000 MW was expected to be procured from outside (LWR’s
)
In
2008, India
conveyed through an official letter that it will
provide two reactor plant sites to U.S. nuclear reactor suppliers for constructing 2 to 6 units at each site (10,000 MW
each)
In
2009, India announced locations of the two nuclear power plant sites for Westinghouse and GEH, and established project teams to start site work and commence negotiations with U.S.
vendors
In 2010, India passed a nuclear liability law, and subsequently signed the Convention of Supplementary Compensation for Nuclear damage (CSC) in Vienna on 27 October 2010
In 2015, the U.S. and India reached an agreement that broke the logjam on nuclear liability
In 2015, the Indian Nuclear Insurance Pool (INIP) came into force
In 2015, India plans to deposit the instrument of acceptance of the CSC with the IAEA
Progress on U.S.-India nuclear
projects
Regulatory
approval process for
Mithi
Virdi
(Gujarat) and
Kovvada
(AP) is underway (
MOEF/AERB/State/Local)
Land
Acquisition Bill in the Parliament (“Public Acceptance
”)
“
Pre-Early Works” feasibility studies related to licensing of AP-1000 at a site in
India
NPCIL
Discussions with GE and W
are ongoing
, but frustratingly slow
(differing interpretations of the 2008 official letter)
Patience gets
rewarded
Canada awarded a contract to provide 7.1
million pounds of uranium through 2020, first
delivery in
September 2015, $260 million
contract
Tribute to former
Cameco
CEO, Jerry
Grandey
Slide6
Future
Nuclear Projects – how long is long
?
Czech
Republic: Temelin-3&4: 2008 – 2014, CEZ cancels tender (Dukovany-5 jumps
ahead?)
U.K
.:
Hinkley
Point C: 2009 – 2023, Austria files legal action in 2015 (delay of 6 months to 5 years
?)
The
export business model for
civil nuclear reactors in non-OECD countries
has changed
India: Negotiates with a sole-sourced supplier in a team environment to ensure compliance with their DAE orders using a system similar to Critical Decision Points in the DOE Order:
413.3B, requiring
approval of Performance Baseline (called Techno-Commercial Offer - TCO - in India) before
a contract for construction is
authorized
Other
emergent nuclear power states: IGA’s
to secure “solutions
not
just reactors
” – meaning
new deals have to address some or all of the following: affordability, financing
, skills training,
jobs
creation,
localization of supply chain, related infrastructure
development,
reactor operations
support
, and developing safety culture
There is a new Government in New Delhi
with focused
agenda and new priorities
The new Government
has
promised electricity to
all citizens
in less than a decade
After a year of analyses, new assessment is beginning to emerge on
the mix of power
generation
Planners are concerned that potential for nuclear growth
through imports may
not be realized
“Plan B” has emerged that will fine-tune the
entire Indian 3-stage nuclear
power program if no convergence is
reached with western reactor suppliers. Imports are part of the Stage-1
program only
Slide7
Bottom Line
India is an attractive market for U.S. Suppliers, particularly in high technology
The U.S. and India are developing strong strategic ties and collaborating on a wide spectrum of projects
U.S. suppliers in the defense sector, renewable energy sector, space missions, etc. are making significant investments in India
India is among the top 5 countries in energy consumption, it announced plans to import 40
GWe
of nuclear power in the 1
st
Stage of the 3-stage nuclear power
NPCIL is one of the most successful vertically integrated public nuclear companies in the world. It builds standardized 700 MW PHWR’s for under $
2,000/Kw. Its financial books are audited per western standards
India has a cumbersome bureaucracy, and
so a
supplier (domestic or foreign) has to be patient, sincere, creative and flexible in order to be successful
10th Anniversary Celebration of the U.S. India Nuclear Deal was celebrated in Washington on 7/13/15
Vice President Biden: “The historic civil nuclear deal was a vote for India and not just for civil nuclear cooperation”
Assistant Secretary of State
Biswal
: “Over the next ten years, India will need to provide 400 million of its citizens with reliable energy”
In Closing
“If you want to travel fast, go alone. If you want to travel far, go together” (Ms.
Biswal
)
American NSSS suppliers and Indians have to get the TCO discussions on fast track and come to a closure soon. Otherwise, a momentous opportunity will be lost
