Nuclear Power Market in India: Status and Outlook PowerPoint Presentation, PPT - DocSlides

Nuclear Power Market in India: Status and Outlook

Vijay K. Sazawal, Ph.D.

July

21

,

2015

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed by the author are solely attributable to him and not to any affiliated company

Presentation Segments

Past

Present

Future

Bottom Line

Past

India had the most advanced nuclear program in the entire Asia until 1960’s

1954: Organized a global meeting in New Delhi on nuclear power

for peaceful purposes

to announce its 3-stage nuclear program

1955: India chaired the Geneva Conference which was a prelude to the formation of the IAEA

1955: Designed the first industrial scale

1 MW reactor

that began operating in 1956 using enriched uranium and technical support provided by UKAEA

1955: The U.S. Joint Committee on Atomic Energy visited India and offered Heavy Water to the Indian nuclear program

1960: CIRUS, a 40 MW reactor, attains criticality (Canada-India-US partnership)

1963: India signs with GE and Bechtel for the first two LWR’s in Asia

1969: TAPS 1 & 2

(both BWR’s) begin

operations

Present - 1

India has the largest electric power grid in any

developin

g nation

It

has 14

th

largest power system in the

world

IMF

says in 2015-2016, Indian growth rate will be 7.5%, and

its industrial revolution has hardly

begun

Indian

population will exceed China’s in the next

decade

India is among the top greenhouse gas polluters in the

world

2020

: China (24%), U.S. (13%), EU (8%), and India (7

%)

India

is making public commitments to change its energy mix by increasing dependence on clean

energy

IAEA, EIA, WNA,

Ux

Consulting …

Global

growth of nuclear power will be driven by non-OECD

countries

2/3

of all new nuclear builds will be in China, Russia, India and South

Korea

McKinsey India Report

2014

“India

will be one of the most energy import dependent large

economies”

Nuclear

capacity will jump from 5.5 GW (2% of total power supply) in 2010 to 23 GW (7%) in 2030, and 25% by

2050

Indian

power production lags total power demand by 9-10

%

India has 21 reactors in commercial operations, 6 under construction, 4 licensed to start construction and another 6 in advanced stages of securing construction licenses

Present - 2

Following the agreement-in-principle on the 123 Agreement with the U.S., the Indian government announced plans for expansion of nuclear power to 63,000 MW by 2032, out of which 40,000 MW was expected to be procured from outside (LWR’s

)

In

2008, India

conveyed through an official letter that it will

provide two reactor plant sites to U.S. nuclear reactor suppliers for constructing 2 to 6 units at each site (10,000 MW

each)

In

2009, India announced locations of the two nuclear power plant sites for Westinghouse and GEH, and established project teams to start site work and commence negotiations with U.S.

vendors

In 2010, India passed a nuclear liability law, and subsequently signed the Convention of Supplementary Compensation for Nuclear damage (CSC) in Vienna on 27 October 2010

In 2015, the U.S. and India reached an agreement that broke the logjam on nuclear liability

In 2015, the Indian Nuclear Insurance Pool (INIP) came into force

In 2015, India plans to deposit the instrument of acceptance of the CSC with the IAEA

Progress on U.S.-India nuclear

projects

Regulatory

approval process for

Mithi

Virdi

(Gujarat) and

Kovvada

(AP) is underway (

MOEF/AERB/State/Local)

Land

Acquisition Bill in the Parliament (“Public Acceptance

”)

“

Pre-Early Works” feasibility studies related to licensing of AP-1000 at a site in

India

NPCIL

Discussions with GE and W

are ongoing

, but frustratingly slow

(differing interpretations of the 2008 official letter)

Patience gets

rewarded

Canada awarded a contract to provide 7.1

million pounds of uranium through 2020, first

delivery in

September 2015, $260 million

contract

Tribute to former

Cameco

CEO, Jerry

Grandey

Future

Nuclear Projects – how long is long

?

Czech

Republic: Temelin-3&4: 2008 – 2014, CEZ cancels tender (Dukovany-5 jumps

ahead?)

U.K

.:

Hinkley

Point C: 2009 – 2023, Austria files legal action in 2015 (delay of 6 months to 5 years

?)

The

export business model for

civil nuclear reactors in non-OECD countries

has changed

India: Negotiates with a sole-sourced supplier in a team environment to ensure compliance with their DAE orders using a system similar to Critical Decision Points in the DOE Order:

413.3B, requiring

approval of Performance Baseline (called Techno-Commercial Offer - TCO - in India) before

a contract for construction is

authorized

Other

emergent nuclear power states: IGA’s

to secure “solutions

not

just reactors

” – meaning

new deals have to address some or all of the following: affordability, financing

, skills training,

jobs

creation,

localization of supply chain, related infrastructure

development,

reactor operations

support

, and developing safety culture

There is a new Government in New Delhi

with focused

agenda and new priorities

The new Government

has

promised electricity to

all citizens

in less than a decade

After a year of analyses, new assessment is beginning to emerge on

the mix of power

generation

Planners are concerned that potential for nuclear growth

through imports may

not be realized

“Plan B” has emerged that will fine-tune the

entire Indian 3-stage nuclear

power program if no convergence is

reached with western reactor suppliers. Imports are part of the Stage-1

program only

Bottom Line

India is an attractive market for U.S. Suppliers, particularly in high technology

The U.S. and India are developing strong strategic ties and collaborating on a wide spectrum of projects

U.S. suppliers in the defense sector, renewable energy sector, space missions, etc. are making significant investments in India

India is among the top 5 countries in energy consumption, it announced plans to import 40

GWe

of nuclear power in the 1

st

Stage of the 3-stage nuclear power

NPCIL is one of the most successful vertically integrated public nuclear companies in the world. It builds standardized 700 MW PHWR’s for under $

2,000/Kw. Its financial books are audited per western standards

India has a cumbersome bureaucracy, and

so a

supplier (domestic or foreign) has to be patient, sincere, creative and flexible in order to be successful

10th Anniversary Celebration of the U.S. India Nuclear Deal was celebrated in Washington on 7/13/15

Vice President Biden: “The historic civil nuclear deal was a vote for India and not just for civil nuclear cooperation”

Assistant Secretary of State

Biswal

: “Over the next ten years, India will need to provide 400 million of its citizens with reliable energy”

In Closing

“If you want to travel fast, go alone. If you want to travel far, go together” (Ms.

Biswal

)

American NSSS suppliers and Indians have to get the TCO discussions on fast track and come to a closure soon. Otherwise, a momentous opportunity will be lost