полёт нормальный What Happened S ince 2011 by Eugene V Bobukh Краткое Содержание Предыдущих Серий 1950s First satellite First nuclear tests in space ID: 560720
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Slide1
50 + 3, полёт нормальный
What Happened Since 2011?
by Eugene V. Bobukh
This is a copyrighted derivative work owned by Eugene
Bobukh
and belonging to his Web site
www.bobukh.com
.
If you see it anywhere else, it must’ve been stolen. Commercial use without paying out royalties to the author is prohibited.Slide2
Краткое Содержание Предыдущих СерийSlide3
1950s
First satellite
First nuclear tests in space
First spy satellite
First interplanetary probesSlide4
1960s
A man went to space
…and to the Moon
First space telescopes
Our probes reached Mars
<= We killed nuclear propulsion
…and reached the limits of
chemical one =>Slide5
1970s
First generation space stations
Second generation space stations
“Distant” planets reached by probes
The birth of contemporary planetary scienceSlide6
1980s
Space Shuttle
Permanent “temporary” solution
Third generation space stations
Commercial space freight
No robots or people to the Moon
Attempt and failure to build cheap launch system (project OTRAG)Slide7
1990s
Hubble space telescope
СССР медным тазом...
Space cooperation
International Space Station
Delta Clipper is no more...Slide8
2000 -- 2011
Orbital space tourism
SpaceX
– private space freight
China – manned space flight
Asian players reach Moon, asteroids, Mars, Venus
Scramjet breakthroughSlide9
2011 – 2014. The Plan.
Manned Space Flight
Propulsion DevelopmentSolar System Planetary Research
Beyond the Solar System
[Briefly] New Telescopes
Selected Research from EBI 2014Slide10
1. Manned Space FlightSlide11
Space Shuttle Grounded
Replacement unclearSlide12
Tiangong-1. Chinese Space Station
Third nation capable of that1st
generationTwo manned flightsAmbitious plansSlide13
Dragon | DragonRider © SpaceX
Privately owned spacecraft capable of manned orbital flight and docking
“My CEO has a spaceship!”
Carries 7 people
ISS docking 2012
Manned plans >2015
Target launch cost $140M (vs. $120-$180M for Soyuz)Slide14
Manned Mars Flights
Numerous projects, most should’ve not even existedThree types of madness (technological, ethical, or just madness)
The least insane: Inspiration Mars Foundation by Dennis Tito Manned flybyTarget launch 2018Slide15
Manned Flight Landscape Change
European Space Agency (ESA) ~2020+Iran 2017India >2017
Japan 2025About 10 privately-funded companies at least in development phase targeting manned LEO flightMotivational limit?Slide16
2. Propulsion DevelopmentSlide17
Scramjet Tests
Concept: 1950sBreakthrough: 2000sUSA: 05/2013 X-51A
WaveRider Mach 5.1 for 3 minutesChina: 01/2014 WU-14 Mach 10+ [details unclear]Slide18
Single Stage to Orbit
Skylon (UK + ESA)Airbreathing
SABRE engineCools air 1000 C -> -150 C in 0.01 secCapability demonstrated in the lab for 6 mins in 2012
Haas 2c (Austria + Romania)
LOX + kerosene rocket
50 kg payload
510 kg dry weight
16,000 kg full weightSlide19
3. Solar SystemSlide20
Ice Confirmed on Mercury
First seen via radarsConfirmed by MESSENGER, USA 11/2012~10
15 kgSlide21
Venus Express
By ESADetailed understanding of atmosphereSO
2 fluctuations => volcanism?Infrared transparency windows confirmed @ 1.1 mkm
Emissivity areas interpreted as fresh (
unweathered
) lava flows around volcanoes.Slide22
Moon
GRAIL (USA)LADEE (USA)Chang’e 3 lander (China)
Yutu rover (China)Slide23
Mars
Curiosity rover (USA)http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZX5GRPnd4U
(Other rovers and satellites keep working)Mars-3 discovered!Slide24
Asteroids
Dawn, USA (ion propulsion)Visited Vesta in 2011
En route to Ceres, ETA 2015
?Slide25
Jupiter
Juno, USALaunched Aug 2011ETA July 2016
Targets Jupiter’s internal structure and atmosphereDeep atmosphere via microwavesGravity of the interiorsCarries a visible light camera solely for education and public outreachSlide26
4. Beyond The Solar System
5 minutes break?Slide27
1780 planets found as of 04/2014!
50% from Kepler mission 2009-2013-?
Mostly close “hot Jupiters” so far but slowly extendingSlide28
A “Pale Blue Dot”?
Most not even seenDirect imaging for the largest
Radius, mass, density for manyAtmospheric transmission spectra!Detecting first molecules in atmospheres (CH4, CO, CO
2
, H
2
O, H, Na, K)
Building first surface maps
Shift space -> ground toolsSlide29
Exoplanets Zoo
The nearest (to us) planet: Alf Cen B b 1.3 pcThe most distant from us (as measured): SWEEPS-11 8500 pc
The heaviest: USco1602-2401 b 47 Mjup (probably a brown dwarf), many around 10-20 Mjup
The smallest: Kepler-9 d (0.02 M
Earth
, or 1/5
th
of Mercury)
The closest to its star: PSR 1719-14 b, 0.0044 au (2.2 hours period)
The farthest from the star: HIP 77900 b, 3200 auThe hottest: probably USco1602-2401 b, 2790 K (some are calculated even hotter, 7000+ K)
The hottest primary star(s): Class B @33,000K for NY Vir b, class B6 @13,700K for HIP 77900 b
The coldest primary star(s): CFBDS 1458 b, near T9.5 @540K, WISE 1217+16A b near T8 @575 KThe least dense: Kepler-51 c, ~0.03* g/cm3, WASP-12b 0.33 g/cm3The most dense: 2M 0746+20 b, ~40* g/cm3; PSR J1719-1438 b >23 g/cm3.
The darkest: TrES-2b, albedo 0.04 – 0.1% (black print is 2%)With most suns: PH1b (AKA Kepler-64b) : 4 (F & M stars)With most planets in one system: HD 10180 (6-9 per different sources) (G star)
Notable peculiarities
At least 4 planets around pulsars
“Carbon” planets where C/O > 1.
SiC
crust.
Super-hot
Jupiters
with iron rain
Evaporating rocky planet: KIC 12557548 b (still debating)Slide30
5. (Some) New Telescopes
Галопом по ЕвропамSlide31
New Or In Progress
Gaia space telescope (astrometry), launched 12/2013Measure the position, distance, and annual proper motion of stars with an accuracy of about 7-300 µas
A fly on the Moon equivalent (but no pictures!)European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT) 39.3 m. Approved 2012, planned for 2022, 1 – 650 mas resolution
(a fly on ISS)
eXtreme
Adaptive Optics (XAO)
Biosignatures detection in exoplanets atmospheres
James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), 6.5m, ETA 2018
Two NRO spy telescopes donated to NASA -> Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope 2020s
Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)
Will discover thousands of exoplanets in orbit around the brightest stars in the sky. NASA.Approved 04/2013, launch planned for 2017Slide32
6. Conference MaterialsSearch for Life Beyond the Solar System — Exoplanets, Biomarkers and Instruments
Tucson, Arizona, March 2014Slide33
Progress Toward Reliable Planet Occurrence Rates with Kepler
Natalie Batalha
(NASA Ames Research Center)Approximately 7% of G & K dwarfs harbor a planet smaller than 1.5 Re in the optimistic HZ
This closes a 400 years old questionSlide34
Spectropolarimetry & Biosignatures
How do you detect organic molecules out there?Need to know which ones
Need to be sure they are not natural ChiralityHomochirality of biological matterSugar!
Circular
dichroism
and selective reflection
“Scattered light microbial polarization levels are in the range
p
c
≈ 10−3
to 10−4, the leaf has pc ≈ 2 × 10
−3, whereas the iron oxide has a root mean square noise level pc ≈ 4 × 10
−5, where pc is the degree of circular polarization”Slide35
Biosignatures from circular spectropolarimetry: key science for ELTs?
K. G. Strassmeier
, T. A. Carroll & M. Mallonn (Leibniz-Institute for Astrophysics Potsdam (AIP), Germany)[Second picture: Towards Polarimetric Exoplanet Imaging with ELTs
Christoph
U. Keller (Leiden Observatory, keller@strw.leidenuniv.nl), Visa
Korkiakoski
(Leiden Observatory),
Michiel
Rodenhuis (Leiden Observatory),
Frans Snik (Leiden Observatory)”]Wait for 2022+Slide36
Finding planets transiting the brightest stars with MASCARA
J.F.P. Spronck
(Leiden University), A.-L. Lesage (Leiden University), R. Stuik (Leiden University), F. Bettonvil (ASTRON), I.A.G. Snellen
(Leiden University)
5 cameras per station
24 mm F/1.4 Canon lenses
11
Mpx
CCD detectors
Magnitude range V = 4-8Cost: around $100,000Slide37
Interplanetary Exchange of Meteoritic Material: From Europa to the Earth
Ma del Carmen Ayala Loera (IA-UNAM, Ensenada), Mauricio Reyes Ruiz (IA-UNAM, Ensenada), Carlos E. Chavez
Pech (FIME-AUNL), Hector Aceves Campos (IA-UNAM, Ensenada), Samuel Navarro (IA-UNAM, Ensenada).
“A simple estimate of the collision probability of
ejecta
with Earth, indicates that for a high velocity
impactor
, which leads to high velocity
ejecta
, this can be as high as Pcol
=0.034 for a single impact.Our results sugest that the exchange of crustal material from Europa with Earth and other solar system bodies, is possible. Orbital evolution suggests that some
ejecta may evolve into interestellar transfers.”Slide38
Done!
Thank you for attention!Questions?Slide39
BackupsSlide40
Pluto
New Horizons (USA)ETA 07/2015On the left: still the best map of Pluto we have todaySlide41
The Role of Oxygen
Oxidizer
Pauling electronegativity
Solar System abundance (O == 100%)
Valence
Comments
F
3.98
1*10
-5
1
Very aggressive
O
3.44
100%
2
Used
by our life
Cl
3.16
0.03%
1
N
3.04
13%
3
N
2
is almost inert
Br
2.96
5*10
-7
1
I
2.66
4*10
-8
1
S
2.58
2.1%
2
Used
by our life
Se
2.55
3*10
-6
2
C
2.55
48%
4
Solid; yields
to O and SSlide42
New Telescopes
OutHerschel Space Observatory Kepler Real:
Hubble Space Telescope 1990Gran Telescopio
Canarias
(GTC) 10.4 m
VLT 1,2,3, & 4
Very Large Telescope 4x8.2 m
CHARA array optical interferometer 6x1 m @330m, 0.5mas resolution in NIR
Spitzer Space Telescope
Large Binocular Telescope
(LBT) (Phased-array optics
for combined "11.9 m"[2])Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer 2009 -- planets in IR,
inclusing in the Solar System, and ultra-cold brown dwarfsProposed or in construction: Gaia space telescope (astrometry), launched 12/2013
Determine the position, distance, and annual proper motion of 1 billion stars with an accuracy of about 20 µas (
microarcsecond
) at 15 mag, and 200 µas at 20 mag.
Determine the positions of stars at a magnitude of V = 10 down to a precision of 7 (
μas
) (this is equivalent to measuring the diameter of a hair from 1000 km away); between 12 and 25
μas
down to V = 15, and between 100 and 300
μas
to V = 20, depending on the
colour of the star.
European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT) 39.3 m. Approved 2012, planned for 2022, 1 – 650 mas resolutioneXtreme Adaptive Optics (XAO), Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) 20 m, construction planned to start in April 2014
Advanced Technology Large-Aperture Space Telescope (ATLAST) space telescope 2025 – 2035 for biosignatures collectionJames Webb Space Telescope (JWST), 6.5m cold, 0.6 to 28.2
mkm, planned launch in 2018Two NRO spy telescopes donated to NASA -> Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WISE) -> 2020s
NEAT: an astrometric space telescope, 2015-2025 plan, 0.05μas @1σ
Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will discover thousands of exoplanets in orbit around the brightest stars in the sky. NASA, Approved 04/2103, launch planned for 2017
Allen Telescope Array (ATA), also One Hectare Telescope (1hT). Under construction.
Radiointerferometer
, 350. ATA-42 complete in 2007,
Survey 1,000,000 stars for SETI emission with enough sensitivity to detect an Arecibo radar out to 300 pc within the range of 1 and 10 GHz
Planetary Transits and Oscillations of stars (PLATO), planned for 2024
Discover and
characterise
a large number of close-by
exoplanetary
systems, with a precision in the determination of the planet mass up to 10%, of planet radius of up to 2%, and of stellar age up to 10%.
Detect Earth-sized planets in the habitable zone around solar-type stars
Detect super-Earths in the habitable zone around solar-type starsSlide43
Conference Materials
Synthetic Biology and the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Lynn J. Rothschild (NASA Ames Research Center, Lynn.J.Rothschild@nasa.gov), Kosuke
Fujishima (University of California Santa Cruz, University Affiliated Research Center at NASA Ames Research Center) “our lab has begun using synthetic biology – the design and construction of new biological parts and systems and the redesign of existing ones for useful purposes – as an enabling technology. One theme, the “Hell Cell” project, focuses on creating artificial extremophiles in order to push the limits for Earth life, and to understand how difficult it is for life to evolve into extreme niches”Slide44
Conference Materials
SETI Programs at the University of California, Berkeley Eric J. Korpela (University of California (UCB), korpela@ssl.berkeley.edu), Andrew V.P.
Siemion (UCB, ASTRON), Dan Werthimer (UCB), Joshua Von Korff
(Georgia State University),
Abhimat
Gautham
(UCB), Jeff Cobb (UCB), Matt
Lebofsky
(UCB), Matt Dexter (UCB), David MacMahon (UCB), Shelley Wright (University of Toronto). Various directions, including strong
μs duration dispersed radio pulses. Slide45
Conference Materials
NEAT: an astrometric space telescope to search for habitable
exoplanets in the solar neighborhood Antoine CROUZIER, et. al. “NEAT (Nearby Earth Astrometric Telescope) is a concept of
astrometric
mission proposed to ESA which goal is to make a whole sky survey of close (less then 20 pc) planetary systems. The detection limit required for the instrument is the
astrometric
signal of an Earth analog (at 10 pc). ”Slide46
Conference Materials
Stellar orbits in the Galaxy and mass extinctions on the Earth: a connection? Gustavo F. Porto de Mello (Universidade
Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Wilton S. Dias (Universidade Federal de Itajubá, Jacques Lépine
(
Universidade
de São Paulo, Diego Lorenzo-Oliveira (
Universidade
Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rodrigo S.
Kazu
(Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro) “We discuss the possible implications of this fact to the long-term habitability of the Earth, and possible correlations of the Sun’s passage through the spiral arms with the five great mass extinctions of the Earth’s biosphere from the Late Ordovician to the Cretaceous-Tertiary.”Slide47
Conference Materials
Characterizing atmospheres of transiting planets from the ground Ignas Snellen
(Leiden Observatory, The Netherlands): a ground-based spectroscopic method to detect “orbital inclination and masses of hundred(s) of non-transiting planets, line-by-line molecular band spectra, planet rotation and global wind patterns, longitudinal spectral variations, and possibly isotopologue
ratios” for hot
Jupiters
and possibly smaller planetsSlide48
Why fly?
Comsats, weather, maps, military?Need neither humans nor a flight too far.Mine resources?
Nothing (maybe except for 3He) comes even close to being economically or energetically profitable
Science, planetary research, astrophysics?
Robots are cheaper, easier to protect, and become increasingly smarter.
You don’t seriously propose that a Man’s Mission in space is of a repairman?
Reduce Earth population? Colonize Mars?
At $10
10
per person?
Populate Antarctica or Sahara first…Radically different from Columbus’ situation who arrived to a *habitable* place!
Meet other civilizations?Not in Solar System and not via interstellar flight in any foreseeable future.Develop new technologies?Possible. Better solution: give a talented team a bunch of $$$ and ask to build a
perpetuum mobile. The flow of engineering discoveries is guaranteed to never end!Slide49
Yet reality disagrees
People die to climb EverestSome live for years in AntarcticaSome spend years studying Neptune satellites
Some seriously propose one-way missions to Mars
There
seems
to be no reasonSlide50
A glimpse from the past:artists’ impressions of Mars polar cup area:
By
Georgy
Kurnin
, 1974 or much earlier.
Has nothing to do with the reality.
By Reuters Pictures, 2008.
Scientifically correct.
If you knew
nothing
about Mars,
which picture would’ve likely convinced you to go there?Slide51
If you think about that…
There is a demand for dream and inspiration, as strong as for food and oxygen.
(and I don’t claim to know the ultimate answer)Slide52
When inspiration is the demand, art is the response
Yes, current manned spaceflight is… a form of art! Extremely expensive, risky, but incredibly inspiring one.
Yes, there is science and practical part here – and something more important: food for spirit.
In some sense, this picture
indeed
was worth $25B at the time.
It paid back to America way more than that – with international prestige, recognition, and most importantly with people who value science and are always looking up the skies for the unknown.