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Western Air Quality Study (WAQS) Western Air Quality Study (WAQS)

Western Air Quality Study (WAQS) - PowerPoint Presentation

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Western Air Quality Study (WAQS) - PPT Presentation

Intermountain Data Warehouse IWDW WAQS Workplan and Modeling Update University of North Carolina UNCIE Ramboll Environ Environ September 23 2015 WAQSIWDW Technical Committee Meeting ID: 398896

results winter aqs simulation winter results simulation aqs emissions waqs performance sites draft sensitivity base11a 2011 cite no2 moves2014

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Slide1

Western Air Quality Study (WAQS)

Intermountain Data Warehouse (IWDW)

WAQS Workplan and Modeling UpdateUniversity of North Carolina (UNC-IE)Ramboll-Environ (Environ)September 23, 2015WAQS/IWDW Technical Committee MeetingSlide2

Summary

Modeling UpdateWinter O3 Sensitivity Results and Wiki MOVES2014 Sensitivity Results and WikiSimulation 2011a CAMx Source ApportionmentSimulation 2011b

CAMx MPENext StepsSlide3

Winter O3 Sensitivities

Objective: Evaluate the impacts of meteorology and emissions adjustments on simulating high wintertime O3DesignBase11a: 3SAQS 2011 Base version ABase11a_WinterO3

: WRF Winter MeteorologyBase11a_WinterO3_OG_Emis: add 10x HCHO, 2x VOC, 0.5x NOxBase11a_WinterO3_OG_Emis_Layers: add no layer collapsing in layers 1-6Simulate February-March 2011Slide4

Winter O3 Sensitivities

CAMx Sensitivity ResultsBase11a_WinterO3CAMx winter O3

predictions not sensitive to the met/CAMx adjustments aloneLess mixing = higher NOx concentrations = lower O3 concentrationsBase11a_WinterO3_OG_EmisO3/NOx/VOC sensitivity in areas of O&G activityBase11a_WinterO3_OG_Emis_LayersSmall changes relative to the emissions sensitivitySlide5

Winter O3 Sensitivities

CAMx Sensitivity Results: AQS Hourly O3

COUT

WY

The Q-Q plots highlight the response of the model in simulating air quality at the different monitoring networks to the sensitivities. At the upper end of the observed concentration range, the simulated O3 at the AQS sites in CO and UT responded favorably to the emissions and layer sensitivities; the O3 concentrations at the WY AQS sites did not show as drastic a change as the other states.Slide6

Winter O3 Sensitivities

CAMx Sensitivity Results: AQS Hourly NO2COUT

WYThe NO2 concentrations at the AQS sites in all three states were more responsive to the meteorology changes than either the chemistry or layers sensitivities.Slide7

Winter O3 Sensitivities

ResultsRangely, CORio Blanco CountyPiceance Basin*

Oil production siteAQS O3 and NO2

* Air quality conditions here are more like Uintah Basin sites than other

Piceance

Basin sitesSlide8

Winter O3 Sensitivities

Results: Rangely, ColoradoFebruary 2011

Hourly AQS NO2Hourly AQS O3Slide9

Winter O3 Sensitivities

Results: Rangely, ColoradoHigh O

3 episode mid-monthSignificant NO2 response to the emissions sensitivityNighttime O3 under-predictions from WRF sensitivityEmission sensitivity produces higher simulated O

3

CAMxSlide10

Winter O

3 SensitivitiesResultsRifle, CO

Garfield CountyPiceance BasinGas production siteAQS O3Garfield County VOCSlide11

Winter O3 Sensitivities

Results: Rifle, ColoradoO3

VOCHCHOSlide12

Winter O3 Sensitivities

Results: Rifle, ColoradoLow observed O3Simulated VOC increases in response to the sensitivity

O3 performance improves with WRF sensitivity, degrades with emissions sensitivityHighlights the problem with a brute-force emissions change

CAMxSlide13

Winter O

3 SensitivitiesResultsMyton

, UTDuchesne CountyUintah BasinOil production siteAQS O3 and NO2Slide14

Winter O3 Sensitivities

Results: Myton, UtahFebruary 2011

Hourly AQS NO2Hourly AQS O3Slide15

Winter O3 Sensitivities

Results: Myton, UtahHigh O

3 episode mid-monthAverage NO2 performance improves with emissions sensitivityWinter WRF squelches mixing = too much NOx = low O3

Higher simulated O3

during high observation periods = negative O

3

bias reduced

CAMxSlide16

Winter O3 Sensitivities

SummaryDespite a lot of work and analysis, more to be doneIn general, the meteorology and emissions sensitivities produced the best results at the Uintah Basin sites, relative to the other O&G basinsNone of the sensitivity configurations were particularly effective at improving the O3 model performance in the Upper Green or

Piceance Basins. Wiki for Additional Results and Discussion: http://vibe.cira.colostate.edu/wiki/wiki/2082/winter-ozone-aq-modeling-resultsSlide17

MOVES2014 Sensitivity

Objective: Evaluate the impacts of MOVES2014a onroad mobile emissions on simulated air qualityDesignSensitivity off of simulation Base11aReplace only the onroad

mobile emissions (MOVES201b) with MOVES2014aSimulate January and July 2011Slide18

MOVES2014 Sensitivity

January AQS Carbon Monoxide

MOVES2014 results in lower winter CO than MOVES2010b

CO

UT

WY

4-kmSlide19

MOVES2014 Sensitivity

July AQS Carbon MonoxideMOVES2014 also results in lower summer CO than MOVES2010bCO

UTWY4-kmSlide20

MOVES2014 Sensitivity

January AQS NO2MOVES2014 results are more mixed for NO2Mostly decreases in UT and WYSome increases in CO at lower concentrations

COUTWY4-kmSlide21

MOVES2014 Sensitivity

July AQS NO2Summertime NO2 increases in CO and WYAverage decrease across domain, but some periods/locations see increases in NOx

COUTWY4-kmSlide22

Jan

Jul

MOVES2014 SensitivityAQS and CASTNET MDA8 O3CO

UT

WYSlide23

Jan

JulMOVES2014 SensitivityIMPROVE and CSN Total PM2.5

COUTWYSlide24

MOVES 2014 SensitivitySummary

Fairly large emissions changes from MOVES2010b to MOVES2014, reflected in CAMx NO2 and CO performanceMOVES update does not result in major changes in simulated O3 and total PM2.5Wiki for

additional results and discussion: http://vibe.cira.colostate.edu/wiki/wiki/1067/moves2014-sensitivity-modeling-resultsSlide25

2011 Geographic Source Apportionment

2011a EmissionsRunning now21 Source Regions5 Source CategoriesNatural (Bio, Lx, SS, WBD)3 Fires (WF, Rx, Ag)Remainder Anthropogenic

Ozone/APCA 36/12 kmPSAT/PM 36 km only (new)O3, PM, Vis and Dep ContributionCSAPR-type AnalysisRHR Impaired vs. W20% DaysGrid cell definition of 17 States, Mex, Can, EUSA, Off-ShoreSlide26

Geographic SA Results

Annual Average PM2.5 – with Fires

2011

2008Slide27

2011

2008

Geographic SA Results

Annual Average PM2.5 – No FiresSlide28

Geographic SA Results

Annual Max 24-hour PM2.5 – with Fires

2011

2008Slide29

2011

2008

Geographic SA Results

Annual Max 24-hour PM2.5 – No FiresSlide30

2011

2008

Geographic SA Results

Colorado Anthropogenic Emissions

Contributions to 4

th

Highest MDA8 O3Slide31

2011

2008

Geographic SA Results

Colorado Anthropogenic Emissions

Contributions to Annual Maximum MDA8 O3Slide32

2011

2008

Geographic SA ResultsColorado Anthropogenic Emissions

Contributions to Annual Maximum MDA8 O3 >= 70 ppbSlide33

WAQS Simulation Base11b

Objective: Improve the Western U.S. 2011 regional modeling platform with insights gained from the evaluation of 3SAQS simulation Base11aDesignWinter configuration for December 15, 2010 – March 2011 (WRF Winter and CAMx Snow Albedo/

Chem)MOZART BC’s with a dust and sea salt set to zeroMOVES2014a onroad mobile emissionsNEI2011v6.2 (2011v2 platform)0.5x RWC emissions 3SAQS Phase II O&G emissions

PMDETAIL 2011 version B firesSlide34

WAQS Simulation Base11bSummary of Phase II O&G

Unchanged from Phase IAll permitted (point), Paradox and Raton BasinsWyoming survey-based emissionsCondensate tank EI in D-J, Piceance

, and N. San JuanAddition of Williston and Great Plains BasinsFracing emissions added to the D-J, Piceance, Uinta, North San Juan, and South San Juan basinsUinta

Basin tribal emissions estimates based on EPA Tribal MNSR

data

A

rtificial

lift engines, condensate tanks, heaters, oil tanks, pneumatic pumps, condensate truck

loadingSlide35

WAQS Simulation Base11bE

missions ResultsDRAFT DO NOT CITESlide36

WAQS Simulation Base11bE

missions ResultsDRAFT DO NOT CITESlide37

WAQS Simulation Base11bE

missions ResultsDRAFT DO NOT CITESlide38

WAQS Simulation Base11bE

missions Results: NOx

DRAFT DO NOT CITESlide39

WAQS Simulation Base11bE

missions Results: VOC

DRAFT DO NOT CITESlide40

WAQS Simulation Base11bE

missions Results: Relative DifferencesDRAFT DO NOT CITESlide41

WAQS Simulation Base11bE

missions SummaryOnroad: Colorado and Wyoming increases, decreases in UtahFires: VOC and SO2 increase, decreases in PM

2.5RWC: 50% decreaseDRAFT DO NOT CITESlide42

3SAQS Base 2011a MPE

2-slide summary of 2011a MPESummer O3 OKToo little winter O3Too much NO2

All AQS and

CASTNet

sites 4-km domain

Myton

, UT MDA8

Colorado AQS NO

2Slide43

3SAQS Base 2011a MPE

High seasonal PM2.5 biasPM performance issues with all species

Wet deposition too lowIMPROVE Total PM2.5

CSN Total PM

2.5Slide44

WAQS Simulation Base11bMDA8 Ozone Performance: All

AQS sites 4-km DomainAQS MDA8 for Base11b

is within performance goals in all monthsDomain-wide, Base11a has lower NMB in most monthsOutside of Jan-Mar Base11b has higher O3, on average, than Base11a.

DRAFT DO NOT CITESlide45

WAQS Simulation Base11bMDA8 Ozone Performance: All

CASTNet sites 4-km DomainDRAFT DO NOT CITE

CNET MDA8

for

Base11b

is within performance goals in all months

Domain-wide,

Base11b

has lower NMB in most months

Performance for

Base11a

and

Base11b

comparable for months other than February and March.Slide46

WAQS Simulation Base11bHourly NO2 Performance: All

AQS sites 4-km DomainDRAFT DO NOT CITE

High NO2 biases is reduced in

Base11b

at AQS sites across the 4-km domain

NO2 is still overestimated in most months Slide47

WAQS Simulation Base11bWinter O3 Performance: AQS MDA8 Ozone

DRAFT DO NOT CITE

The WRF winter configuration and O&G inventory updates did not improve high winter O3 simulation

Basin-specific emissions improvements are needed

Myton

, UT

Boulder, WYSlide48

WAQS Simulation Base11bDaily Max Total PM2.5 Performance: All sites 4-km Domain

DRAFT DO NOT CITE

Total PM2.5 is lower in simulation

Base11b

, leading to improvement in overestimates seen in

Base11a

.

Zeroing the dust boundary conditions reduce the total PM2.5 in all months.

CSN

IMPROVESlide49

WAQS Simulation Base11bDaily Max Total PM2.5 Performance:

CSN sites 4-km DomainDRAFT DO NOT CITE

Winter OC at urban CSN sites reduced in

Base11b

, leading to improvement over

Base11a

; model still over estimates OC.

Summer dust (Other) reductions improve overall CSN performance.

B11a

B11b

B11a

B11b

Winter

SummerSlide50

WAQS Simulation Base11b

Daily Max Total PM2.5 Performance:

IMPROVE sites 4-km Domain

DRAFT DO NOT CITE

Dust at rural IMPROVE sites also reduced in

Base11b

, leading to improvement over

Base11a

Aerosol nitrate underestimated in

Base11b

B11a

B11b

B11a

B11b

Winter

SummerSlide51

Next StepsComplete MOVES sensitivity documentation on Wiki

Recommendations for future winter modeling work2011b MPEWet deposition, visibility, and NH3 analysisOzone aloftDraft MPE reportCMAQ 2011b 36/12/4km in process nowAdd to MPE report2011b Platform release in November

Future year simulation