PPT-ITF220 - Prof.J.Frankel Lecture 18: Crises in Emerging

Markets Continuing from Lecture 12 Boombust cycle of inflows amp outflows Sudden stops Managing capital outflows Speculative attacks Contagion IMF Programs Appendices Car crash analogy. CRISES IN EMERGING MARKETS. L21: Speculative Attack Models. . • Generation I. • Generation II. • Generation III. . L22: Sudden Stops. . • Boom & bust in EMs. • Contagion. Lecture 18: Crises in Emerging Markets. Boom-bust cycles of inflows & outflows. Crashes. . Sudden stops. Managing capital . outflows. Speculative attacks. Contagion. IMF Programs. ITF220 - Prof.J.Frankel. Prof.J.Frankel. Lecture 21: . Exchange Rate Regimes. ITF220 Prof.J.Frankel. What exchange rate regimes do . countries . choos. e. ?. Classification of exchange rate regimes. What regimes . should. countries . Lecture 18: Crises in Emerging . Markets. Continuing from Lecture 12. Boom-bust . cycle . of . inflows & outflows. Sudden stops. Managing . capital . outflows. Speculative attacks. Contagion. IMF . Aggregate Demand . (AD). . & . Aggregate Supply . (AS). Ultra-Keynesian A.S.. Neoclassical . A.S. . Intermediate A.S. curve. Expectations-augmented A.S. .. Rational . expectations . A.S.. Real Business Cycles . CRISES IN EMERGING MARKETS. L21: Speculative Attack Models. . • Generation I. • Generation II. • Generation III. . L22: Sudden Stops. . • Boom & bust in EMs. • Contagion. Lecture 3. : . Country Risk. The portfolio-balance model . with default risk.. When countries default.. What determines sovereign spreads?. Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA).. API-119 - Prof.J.Frankel. Exchange Rate Regimes. ITF220 Prof.J.Frankel. What exchange rate regimes do . countries . choos. e. ?. Classification of exchange rate regimes. What regimes . should. countries . choose?. 2. Advantages . CRISES IN EMERGING MARKETS. L21: Speculative Attack Models. . • Generation I. • Generation II. • Generation III. . L22: Sudden Stops. . • Boom & bust in EMs. • Contagion. . An additional factor for portfolio investors: risk of default,. c. alled sovereign risk, in the case of risk . of default by . governments.. Defaults and restructuring.. What determines sovereign spreads?. (I) . Boom . & bust in EM capital . flows. (II) . Currency . crashes. (iii) The statistical record of . . Early . Warning . Indicators. Crises in Emerging Markets: Part I Outline. (I) Boom & bust in EM capital flows. International Interdependence. Theory:. . Interdependence . results from capital mobility. , . even . with floating rates.. Empirical estimates of cross-country effects.. International Coordination. . Breaching the central bank’s defenses. . LECTURE 25: . Speculative Attack Models. . • Generation . I. . • . Generation II. . . • Generation III. Exchange Rate Regimes. ITF220 Prof.J.Frankel. What exchange rate regimes do . countries . choos. e. ?. Classification of exchange rate regimes. What regimes . should. countries . choose?. 2. Advantages .