PPT-Cycles and Exponential Smoothing Models

Materials for this lecture Lecture 10 CyclesXLS Lecture 10 Exponential SmoothingXLSX Read Chapter 15 pages 1830 Read Chapter 16 Section 14 How Does Regression Work Y t a b. . and Multiple Choices . 1. . Given an actual demand of 60 for a period when forecast of 70 was anticipated, and an alpha of 0.3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing? . June 2012, Planetary Mappers Meeting. Smoothing Contacts. What is smoothing:. Smoothing allows you to add curvature to linework making it . arcuate. instead of straight between vertices. Why you should smooth:. Exponential Growth Functions. If a quantity increases by the same proportion . r. in each unit of time, then the quantity displays exponential growth and can be modeled by the . equation. Where. C = initial amount. : Time Series Data Library. www.datamarket.com. Monthly Minneapolis public drunkenness intakes Jan.’66-Jul’78. Meghan Burke. Goals. Provide a descriptive analysis of this time series. Develop the best models to . From Business Intelligence Book by . Vercellis. Lei Chen. , . for COMP 4332. 1. Definitions. Data: {. x_i. , . y_i. , . i. =1, 2…}. Discrete: . x_i. are discrete: day 1, day 2, …. Continuous. x_i. Evaluating Rational & Irrational Exponents. Graphing Exponential Functions . f(x) = a. x. Equations with . x. and . y. Interchanged. Applications of Exponential Functions. Use calculators to calculate graphing points. Prof. Ashish Raj (Radiology). CS5540: Computational Techniques for Analyzing Clinical Data. Administrivia. We’re going to try to end class by 2:25. Like the registrar believes. Sign up . online!. 2. David Kauchak. CS159 – Spring 2011. some slides adapted from Jason Eisner. Admin. Assignment 2 out. bigram language modeling. Java. Can work with partners. Anyone looking for a partner?. Due Wednesday 2/16 (but start working on it now!). Exponential Growth. Exponential growth. occurs when an quantity increases by the same rate . r. in each period . t. . When this happens, the value of the quantity at any given time can be calculated as a function of the rate and the original amount. . Differentiate between linear and exponential functions.. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. In addition to level 3, students make connections to other content areas and/or contextual situations outside of math..  . Students will construct, compare, and interpret linear and exponential function models and solve problems in context with each model.. 3.2 Exponential growth and decay: Constant percentage rates. 1. Learning Objectives:. Understand exponential functions and consequences of constant percentage change.. Calculate exponential growth, exponential decay, and the half-life.. Materials for this lecture. Lecture . 10 . Cycles.XLS. Lecture . 10 . Exponential . Smoothing.XLSX. Read Chapter 15 pages 18-30. Read Chapter 16 Section 14. How Does Regression Work?. . Y. t. = a + b. Materials for this lecture. Lecture . 4 . Cycles.XLS. Lecture . 4 . Exponential Smoothing.XLS. Read Chapter 15 pages 18-30. Read Chapter 16 Section 14. How Good is Your Forecast?. Can your forecast beat a Moving Average?. Power . Exponential Notation. A short hand of writing a number with out changing its Value. It only changes the way it looks.. * . . . . .  . X10. #. x10. - #. Number gets larger .