Time Series Data Library wwwdatamarketcom Monthly Minneapolis public drunkenness intakes Jan66Jul78 Meghan Burke Goals Provide a descriptive analysis of this time series Develop the best models to ID: 271440
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Source: Time Series Data Librarywww.datamarket.com
Monthly Minneapolis public drunkenness intakes Jan.’66-Jul’78
Meghan BurkeSlide2
GoalsProvide a descriptive analysis of this time seriesDevelop the best models to
forecast future monthly Minneapolis public drunkenness intakes
Understand the time series structureSlide3
Initial Time Series PlotSlide4
Time Series Comparison
Initial
AdjustedSlide5
Time Series Comparison
Initial
AdjustedSlide6
Model ComparisonsBest Smoothing Models:Seasonal Exponential SmoothingWinters MethodARIMA (0, 0, 1)Slide7
Seasonal Exponential SmoothingSlide8
Winters MethodSlide9
ARIMA (0,0,3)Slide10
Forecast Predictions from the Exponential Smoothing ModelsSlide11
Comparing Forecast PredictionsBest Smoothing ModelSeasonal Exponential Smoothing
Model
MAPEMAESeasonal Exponential Smoothing14.13256252%
38.52444229
Winters Method
14.13256243%
38.52444203
ARIMA (0,0,3)
21.72210497%
60.33186319Slide12
CitationDavid E. Aaronson, C. Thomas Dienes, and Michael C. Musheno,Changing the Public Drunkenness Laws: The Impact of Decriminalization, 12Law & Soc'y Rev.405 (1977),
Available at: http://scholarship.law.berkeley.edu/facpubs/113