This reflects the combined impacts of rapid demographic environmental social technological and other changes in our ways ofliving Climate change will also affect infectious disease occurrence CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN HEALTH RISK AND RESPONSES 16 Hu ID: 32733
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6Change AndInfectiousDiseases infectious diseases, includingof-living. Climate change will CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN HEALTH - RISK AND RESPONSES 16 from long before the role ofresorts each summer to avoidcurried foods were less likely to haveadapted, via evolution, to the Vector-borne and water-borne diseases recreational water, or food. Thissuch as improper disposal of Observed and predictedclimate/infectious disease links examines evidence from the recentpast of associations between climatepredictive models to estimate thefuture burden of infectious disease Historical Evidence Malaria is of great public healthconcern, and seems likely to be the Figure 6.1: Four main types of transmission cycle for infectious diseases (reference 5) AnthrAnthroponoses Direct transmission HUMANS Indirect transmission VECTOR/VEHICLE VECTOR/VEHICLE VECTOR/VEHICLE VECTOR/VEHICLE SUMMARY 17 identified early on as a majoraround five-fold in the year after an Early impacts of climate change These include several infectiousdiseases, health impacts of Predictive Modeling The main types of models used toderivation of a statistical (empirical)disease, given prevailing levels ofany particular climatic zone.Theseclimate change impacts on malaria,malaria over the coming half-the scientifically documented e.g., vector breeding, survival, andmodels express, via a set ofconfiguration of climate variables Using morehorizontal integrationof people who, in climatic terms,are at risk of malaria by around 3-5%, i.e. several hundred million.malaria would increase in manyeffects of both climatic and otherenvironmental factors (e.g. different often measured,in the model development stage, byThis type of modelling has beenclimate-induced changes in groundwould affect mosquitoes and tsetseflies and, hence, malaria and Conclusion change. We need to learn moreabout the underlying complexinformation to the prediction of Environmental changesExample diseasesPathway of effect Dams, canals, irrigationSchistosomiasisSnail host habitat, human contact MalariaBreeding sites for mosquitoes HelminthiasiesLarval contact due to moist soil River blindnessBlackfly breeding, diseaseAgricultural intensificationMalariaCrop insecticides and vector Venezuelan rodent abundance, contact Urbanization, Cholerasanitation, hygiene; water urban crowdingcontaminationDengueWater-collecting trash, Aedes aegypti mosquito breeding sites Deforestation and new MalariaBreeding sites and vectors, habitationimmigration of susceptible people Oropouchecontact, breeding of vectors Visceral leishmaniasiscontact with sandfly vectors ReforestationLyme diseasetick hosts, outdoor exposure Ocean warmingRed tideToxic algal blooms Elevated precipitationRift valley feverPools for mosquito breedingHantavirus Rodent food, habitat, pulmonary syndromeabundance increasereduction