Heat Roadmap Europe 2050 - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

Heat Roadmap Europe2050Slide2

study for the EU27

by

for

Aalborg University

David Connolly

Brian Vad Mathiesen

Poul Alberg Østergaard

Bernd Möller

Steffen Nielsen

Henrik Lund

Halmstad UniversityUrban PerssonDaniel NilssonSven Werner

Ecofys Germany GmbHJan GrözingerThosmas BoersmansMichelle Bosquet

PlanEnergiDaniel Trier

study for the EU27Slide3

Why this study?

The heating and cooling sector has largely been overlooked in all scenarios exploring the energy future towards 2050.This study focuses on the future European heat and cooling market and its importance in terms of cost-savings, job creation, investments, and

a smarter energy systemSlide4

Existing Studies

Existing scenario reports:Fail to provide proper analysis of heating and coolingHave a too low time and geographical resolution to model the realities of the energy market, especially DHCAcknowledge the importance of DHC until 2030/2050, butAssume high shares of electric heating, low heat consumption, and low shares of DHC by 2050

G

eneral

C

onsensus:

”Combined heat & power (CHP) and district heating (DH) are important”

The European Commission in the Energy Roadmap

2050 communication

:

“An analysis of more ambitious energy efficiency measures and cost-optimal policy is required. Energy efficiency has to follow its economic potential. This includes questions on to what extent urban and spatial planning can contribute to saving energy in the medium and long term; how to find the cost-optimal policy choice between insulating buildings to use less heating and cooling and systematically using the waste heat of electricity generation in combined heat and power plants.” . . . but fail to quantify to which extent these options can be used in the future energy system . . . Slide5

The EU is wasting energy (heat)...Slide6

… while >70% of EU citizens live in Urban Areas…Slide7

… and 6000 District Heating systems already exist in the EUSlide8

What is this Study?

Two Reports:Pre-study 1 (2012): is DHC beneficial in a business-as-usual scenarioPre-study 2 (2013): is DHC beneficial in a low-heat demand scenarioSlide9

Methodology

GIS Mapping

Energy System ModellingSlide10

Urban areas (Heating Demands)

Power and Heat GenerationWaste ManagementIndustrial waste heat potentialGeothermal heatSolar Thermalthe study indicates that the market shares for district heating for buildings can be increased to 30% in 2030 and 50% in 2050.

GIS Mapping:

Many Heat SourcesSlide11

Energy Systems Analyses Model

www.EnergyPLAN.euSlide12

Pre-Study 1(2012)

Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy system in a business-as-usual scenario?Slide13

2010 Modelling

IEA

Statistics

 Slide14

District Heating Benefits in 2 steps

Step 1: (Energy Efficiency)Increasing DH to 30% then 50%Increasing CHPUsing Oil/Natural gas in CC-CHPStep 2: (Utilise waste and RE sources)

Industrial waste heatWaste incinerationGeothermal heatLarge-scale Solar ThermalSlide15

Year 2010Step 1: Energy EfficiencySlide16

Year 2010Step 2: Utilise ResourcesSlide17

Year 2010

Total Energy Supply

7

% reduction in Primary Energy Supply

13% reduction in fossil fuels

17% reduction in CO2-emissions Slide18

What is a Business-as-Usual Scenario?

Energy Roadmap 2050Completed for the European Commission in 2011, by the National Technical University in AthensPresents 6 energy scenarios for the EU27:Reference: Business-as-usualCPI: Updated business-as-usualEE: Energy Efficiency

CCS: Carbon Capture and StorageNuclearHigh Renewable EnergySlide19

Designing the DHC Alternatives

EU Energy Roadmap

2050

Current Policy Initiatives (CPI)Slide20

Year 2030 & 2050:Steps 1 & 2

EU Energy Roadmap 2050

 Slide21

Year 2030 & 2050:Total Energy Supply

EU Energy Roadmap 2050

HRE 2050 compared to EU CPI 2050:

5% reduction in Primary Energy Supply

10% reduction in fossil fuels

13% reduction in CO2-emissions Slide22

Cost and Jobs

Saved fuel costs of annual approx. 30 Billion EUR in 2050In total cost are reduced by 14 Billion EUR in 2050Additional investments of a total of 500 billion EURAdditional jobs from to 2013 to 2050: 8-9

million man-year in total Approx. 220,000 jobs.Slide23

HRE1 Conclusion: 50% DH and CHP

Decrease primary energy supply and especially fossil fuels and CO2 emissionsDecrease annual costs of energy in Europe by approximately €14 Billion in 2050Create additional 220,000 jobs over the period 2013-2050Further integration of RES

LESS FUEL

LESS MONEY

MORE EU JOBS

MORE RESlide24

Pre-Study 2(2013)

Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy system in a low-heat demand scenario?Slide25

Future: EU Energy Roadmap 2050

Completed for the European Commission in 2011, by the National Technical University in AthensPresents 6 energy scenarios for the EU27:Reference: Business-as-usualCPI: Updated business-as-usualEnergy Efficiency (EU-EE)Carbon Capture & StorageNuclearHigh Renewable Energy

HRE2: Is

district heating a good idea if we implement a lot of energy efficiency in the buildings

?Slide26

Energy Modelling

EU Energy Roadmap

2050

Energy Efficiency (EE)Slide27

Key Measures in the EU-EE Scenario

High renovation rates for existing buildings due to better/more financing and planned obligations for public buildings (more than 2% refurbishment per year)Passive houses standards after 2020Obligation of utilities to achieve energy savings in their customers' energy use over 1.5% per year (up to 2020)Strong

minimum requirements for energy generation, transmission and distribution including obligation that existing energy generation installations are upgraded to theSlide28

CPI vs. EESlide29

Electricity in the EE ScenarioSlide30

EU-EE ScenarioHeat Demand Concerns

Hot water demand decreases by 50% between 2010 and 2050Specific Heat Demands reduce by 70% between 2010 and 2050Slide31

Energy Efficiency Costs

EU-EE Scenario 63% Drop in Heat Demands Cost B€300/year 2010-2050Slide32

HRE-EE Hot Water Growth = +16%

Residential and non-residential buildings is expected to grow by 32% and 42% respectively between 2015 and 2050Population will grow by 3.2% between 2010 and 2050.Individuals are likely to take more showers and baths in the future than they do today.People are not expected to live with one another as much in the future.

At present, there are regions in Europe where the use of hot water is limited due to technical and financial limitations.Slide33

HRE-EE Space Heating = -47%Slide34

Implementing District Heating

Individual boilers are replaced by district heating:30% in 2030 and 50% in 2050Individual heat pumps are not replacedIndividual cooling units are replaced with district

cooling.10% in 2030 and 20% in 2050Natural cooling and absorption heat pumps are both used.Slide35

Heat Demand by SourceSlide36

Implementing District Heating

New DH production facilities are constructed:CHP, boilers, heat pumps, and thermal storage.Additional resources can now be utilised by the district heating network:

Industrial surplus heat: 100 TWh/yearDirect geothermal heat: 100 TWh/yearWaste incineration: 150 TWh/yearLarge-scale solar thermal: 100 TWh/yearWind power for large-scale heat pumps: 65 TWh/yearSlide37

Heat Resources

Potential:Power Plants = 2000 TWhIndustry surplus heat = 750 TWhLarge-scale solar thermal = 350 TWhWaste = 200 TWhGeothermal = 120 TWhLarge-scale heat pumps = ?Biomass heat = ?

Total Heat Demand in the EU in 2010 = 3300 TWhSlide38

EU-EE vs. HRE-EE Additional ResourcesSlide39

EU-EE vs. HRE-EE DH SupplySlide40

ResultsSlide41

EU-EE vs. HRE-EE:

Primary Energy Supply & CO2Slide42

EU-EE vs. HRE-EE:

Fossil FuelsSlide43

EU-EE vs. HRE-EE:

Heat & Cooling Costs -15%Slide44

Renewables and Energy Efficiency

Additional Renewables100 TWh Geothermal100 TWh large-scale solar65 TWh wind (due to a smarter energy system)Context: 2050 total heat is 2600 TWh

Energy EfficiencyDemand side is extremely important, but eventually it will become expensiveSupply side also has many options:

PP converted to CHP

100 TWh surplus industrial heat200 TWh heat from waste incinerationSlide45

Case Study: ÅrhusSlide46

Case StudyConclusions

District heating is an attractive solution in areas with a high heat densityDistrict heating can be seen as an efficiency measure similar to reductions in heat demand, because it enables the use of fuels in a more efficient wayHeat reductions in buildings can be combined with district heating

so that it is competitive with individual solutionsSlide47

HRE1 Conclusions

If we continue under a business-as-usual scenario, then district heating can:Reduce the PESReduce the CO2 emissionsReduce the costs of the energy systemUse more renewable energySlide48

HRE2 Conclusions

If we implement a lot of energy efficiency measures, then district heating will:Meet the same goals:Utilise the same amount of fossil fuelsEnable the same CO2 emission reductionsBUT, Cost approximately 10% lessSlide49

Study 3?(20??)

Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy system in a ??? scenario?Slide50

Research To Be Continued…

Develop national plans that connect the local (mapping) and EU (modelling) results.Optimise the EU energy system by reducing baseload electricity and developing more smart energy system technologies4th Generation District Heating: http://www.4dh.dk/ Slide51

Benefits of District Heating

Improves the efficiency of the system (CHP, O&M, etc.)Creates short-term and long-term flexibilityEnables more renewable energy resources and surplus heat to be utilisedReduces the thermal capacity necessaryIncreases the comfort-levels for the end-userSlide52

Thank you

Need a copy of the report?www.heatroadmap.euwww.4dh.dk/hre