October 2014 Paul Coomes PhD Emeritus Professor of Economics University of Louisville Nine Economic Regions of Kentucky provocative facts policy challenges for future What was Kentuckys ID: 156607
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Slide1
Kentucky Economics Association
October 2014Paul Coomes, Ph.D.Emeritus Professor of EconomicsUniversity of Louisville
Nine Economic Regions of Kentucky
provocative facts, policy challenges for futureSlide2
What was Kentucky’s 1958 rank among states in terms of earned per capita income?
32nd
38
th
46
th
50th
Slide3
Kentucky’s rank among 50 statesPersonal income minus transfer payments, per capita
1958: 46th
2013: 46
th
Thank goodness for
West
Virginia, Mississippi
, South Carolina, and Arkansas.Slide4Slide5
Regional Economic Development in KentuckyWhere are we? Where have we been? Where are we going?Talking about the per capita income of
Kentuckians is like talking about the average elevation of Colorado. It is the variation around the average that is interesting.The State of Kentucky is not an economy in any meaningful sense – not a labor market, not a housing market, not a retail market, not a media market. States, counties, municipalities are political and administrative entities.
While
a county is closer than a state to a market boundary, most markets encompass many counties. Consider
television market areas
(the ABC, CBS, NBC network broadcast territories
).Slide6
Television Market Boundaries
The maps linked below were retrieved from the U.S. Census Bureau web site (http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/) and altered to show TV markets by county. The TV Market information was derived from pictures once available on the now defunct www.echostarmerger.com
, select TV station web sites and other sources on the web. At no time was the Nielsen Media Research Co. web site nor any other material directly attached to same ever consulted
The
TV Market borders change slightly every September. The most if not all the maps linked below are current as of the 2006-2007 season. The map above is derived from information retrieved in the 2002-2003 season and is there for historical purposes
. If
you have any questions, comments or corrections, please e-mail me at
tvmarkets@echostaruser.com
KY is somewhere in here. TV stations don’t care.Slide7
http://dishuser.org/TVMarkets/Maps/kentucky.gif9 Available on Dish Network: Bristol (TN/VA)
Cincinnati (OH), Charleston/Huntington (WV), Evansville (IN), Knoxville (TN), Lexington, Louisville,
Nashville (TN)
,
Paducah
1
Not Available on Dish Network: Bowling Green
Somerset: cable provides WBIR-NBC from Knoxville TN
Bowling Green: CBS broadcast is from WTVF in Nashville TN
10 Television Market Boundaries around Kentucky
a
ll except Lexington and Bowling Green stations are multi-stateSlide8
A Google Map View
Cincinnati- Northern Kentucky
Ashland-Huntington-Charleston
Lexington
Bowling Green-Hopkinsville-Nashville
Paducah-Purchase
Evansville-Owensboro-Henderson
Louisville-Elizabethtown-Southern Indiana
Mountain
Stylized economic regions based on major cities, TV markets, and terrain.
Somerset-Cumberland-KnoxvilleSlide9
Developing Useful Economic Development GeographiesDetailed County Assignments to Nine Regions
Thankfully, the Census Bureau gives us a good start by defining metropolitan, micropolitan, and combined statistical areas based on employment interchanges between counties.
For example, the Frankfort, Mt. Sterling, and Richmond
micropolitan
areas are part of the Lexington Consolidated Statistical Area. Using these definitions, we can assign 48
of Kentucky’s 120 counties
to one of the nine economic regions
.Slide10
The hard part is looking at counties at the margins of the major market areas, and assigning them to one economic region. I look at television markets and commuting patterns from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey 2006-2010. For example, where to assign Danville and its two
micropolitan counties – Boyle and Lincoln? Both counties receive television from the Lexington market.
Top external destinations for work of Boyle + Lincoln residents:
Mercer (1,056 + 372) = 1,428
Fayette (811 + 429) = 1,240
Jessamine (368 + 457) = 825
Pulaski ( 54 + 517) = 571 Garrard (257 + 250) = 507 Franklin (187 + 155) = 342
Mercer, the top destination, and Garrard are also served by the Lexington TV market. Fayette, Jessamine and Franklin are in the Lexington CSA. So, assign Boyle, Lincoln, Mercer and Garrard to the Lexington region.
Note there is a pull towards Pulaski County from Lincoln County. So, assignment is not perfect.Slide11Slide12
Louisville
Cincinnati
New York
Destin
NaplesSlide13
Which of the nine regions is the most densely populated?
Louisville
Northern Kentucky
Mountain
Lexington
Slide14
Northern Kentucky and Louisville regions
three times
more dense than five most sparse regions:
e
conomies of scale in cost of delivering public services (e.g., schools, safety, roads, health care).Slide15
Top three counties over 30 times more dense than sparsest counties.Slide16
Which of the nine regions has the least population growth this decade?
Mountain
Cumberland
Paducah - Purchase
Louisville
Slide17
This decade so far
declining population at tails of stateSlide18
This decade so farSlide19
This decade so far
m
ore deaths than birthsSlide20
Mountain region was third most populated; now is fifth, and heading towards seventh.
Regions contain 28 counties, with combined population less than that of Jefferson CountySlide21
Peak: 408,000 in 1983
Net loss of 76,000 since 1983Slide22
Net loss of 76,000 since 1983
Net gain of 49,000 since 1983Slide23
Which region has the highest income from farming?
Owensboro-Henderson
Bowling Green - Hopkinsville
Cumberland
Lexington
Slide24
Equine…
Grain, poultry, livestockSlide25
Which region has the highest income from mining?
Owensboro-Henderson
Paducah - Purchase
Mountain
Lexington
Slide26
Mountain and Owensboro-Henderson regions ($1.7 billion) account for 75% of Kentucky totalSlide27
Which region has the highest income from manufacturing?
Louisville
Ashland
Lexington
Northern Kentucky
Slide28
Louisville and Lexington regions ($9 billion) account for 58% of Kentucky totalSlide29
Louisville accounts for 44% of state total.
Louisville,
NKy
, Lexington regions combined account for 66% of Kentucky totalSlide30
Louisville region accounts for 46% of state total.
Louisville, Lexington,
Nky
regions combined account for 79% of Kentucky totalSlide31
Which region has had the
strongest job growth
since the bottom of the 2008-09 recession?
Lexington
Bowling Green - Hopkinsville
Paducah - Purchase
Ashland
Slide32Slide33Slide34
Which region has had the
highest ratio of employed persons to population
?
Lexington
Bowling Green - Hopkinsville
Northern Kentucky
Louisville
Slide35
u
rban, dense
rural, sparseSlide36
Less than one-third employedSlide37
Which region accounts for the largest share of private industry payrolls in Kentucky?
Louisville
Bowling Green - Hopkinsville
Lexington
Northern Kentucky
Slide38
70% of private
payrolls in Kentucky from three of the nine regions: your tax base.Slide39
u
rban, dense
rural, sparseSlide40
Four counties account for one-half of Kentucky total private sector income
Note: all top counties are urban, except Scott (Toyota)Slide41
Which of the nine regions has the highest government payroll per capita?
Lexington
Bowling Green - Hopkinsville
Louisville
Mountain
Slide42
Fort Campbell
Frankfort
Fort KnoxSlide43
In twelve counties, over 40% of earnings from government employment.
Two counties – Christian and Hardin – dominated by military.
Franklin is home state government.
Lyon County: KY State Penitentiary at Eddyville.
Other eight are all in eastern Kentucky.Slide44
Which region has the highest transfer payments per capita?
Lexington
Paducah - Purchase
Ashland
Mountain
Slide45
Mountain: $3.9 billion total, or
40% of personal income
Cumberland: $3.2 billion total, or
38%
of personal income
NKY: $3.1 billion total, or
17%
of personal incomeSlide46Slide47
Mountain and Cumberland regions much more dependent in 2012 than in 1969.Slide48
3 counties above 50%
28 counties 40% or higher
National average is 18%Slide49Slide50
Top 18 counties are in eastern KentuckySlide51
Which region has the highest rate of high school graduates?
Lexington
Owensboro - Henderson
Northern Kentucky
Bowling Green - Hopkinsville
Slide52Slide53
Which region has the highest rate of college graduates?
Lexington
Louisville
Northern Kentucky
Bowling Green - Hopkinsville
Slide54Slide55
Nostalgia Economics
Agriculture and Mining’s Share of Labor Income
Includes tobacco, corn, soybeans, equine, cattle, pork, chickens, logging, coal mining, oil and gas production……Slide56
1780 - 1912
“The original motivation for having so many counties was to ensure that residents in the days of poor roads and horseback travel could make a round trip from their home to the county seat and back in a single day, as well as being able to travel from one county seat to the next in the same fashion”
–
Counties
, The Kentucky Encyclopedia, John E.
Kleber
, editor, The University Press of Kentucky, 1992.
Kentucky’s 120 counties, the most per square mile of any state
Pike is largest, 788 sq. mi.
Average county size is 330 square miles, so if county seat is central, a horse could make the round trip from border in
5-6 hours
.
Horse, at 4 MPH, would
t
ake 16+ hours to get from Majestic to Pikeville and backSlide57
Constitution requires each county to have County judge, county court clerk, county attorney, county treasurer, county sheriff, jailer, coroner, surveyor, three to eight justices of the peace, and three to eight constables. In
counties; where the fiscal court is composed of commissioners, three commissioners must also be elected The state also pays for a county attorney, PVA, jails, DMV, in every county.How far could a Kentucky resident travel today, round trip, in 6 hours?
Well, three hours each way, averaging 45 MPH, would be 135 miles. For a round region, that would imply a government center serving
57,000 square miles
, larger than Kentucky’s total of 40,000 square miles.
The largest economic region is Lexington, with 6,800 square miles and 26 counties. The longest travel time round trip, using a car at 45 MPH, would be 4 hours. So, transportation improvements have allowed access to a ‘local’ government center to be the same now for a region containing 26 counties as it was 200 years ago for one county.Slide58
Thank you!Go to http://kentuckyeconomicassociation.org
/ to download a copy of this presentation.