c riticality of stresses threats and contributing f actors Phase II Systemic risk and vulnerability analysis Step 12 Pierre Ibisch 2013 Credits and conditions of use 12 Analysis of the future criticality of stresses threats and contributing factors ID: 636362
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Slide1
Analysis of the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors
Phase IISystemic risk and vulnerability analysisStep 12
© Pierre
Ibisch
2013Slide2
Credits and conditions of use12. Analysis of the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors
2
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© Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management, 2014 The Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management strongly recommends that this presentation is given by experts familiar with the adaptive management process in general (especially as designed as the Conservation Measures Partnership’s Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation) as well as the MARISCO Method itself.
This material was created under the leadership and responsibility of
Prof.
Dr.
Pierre
Ibisch
and
Dr.
Peter Hobson, co-directors of the Centre for
Econics
and Ecosystem Management, which was jointly established by Eberswalde University for Sustainable Development and
Writtle
College. Compare
:
Ibisch
, P.L. & P.R. Hobson (eds.) (2014): The MARISCO method:
Adaptive
MAnagement
of vulnerability and
RISk
at
COnservation
sites. A guidebook for risk-robust, adaptive, and ecosystem-based conservation of biodiversity. Centre for
Econics
and Ecosystem Management, Eberswalde (ISBN 978-3-00-043244-6). 195 pp
. -
The
Powerpoint
Presentation was conceived by Christina Lehmann and Pierre
Ibisch
. Authors of graphs and photographs are indicated on the corresponding slides.
Supported
by
the
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf
of
the
Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (BMZ
).Slide3
12. Analysis of the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors
3Slide4
Learning objectives
12. Analysis of the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors4Slide5
Outline
What
does analysing the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors mean?Why
do we analyse the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors?
How
do we analyse the future
criticality of stresses, threats and contributing
factors?Practical Tips12. Analysis of the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors5Slide6
What does analysing the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors mean?
Attempt to add information to stresses/ threats/ contributing factors in order to recognise most relevant impacting factors to biodiversity objectTaking possible future developments into account12. Analysis of the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors
6
Today Tomorrow
?
© Christina Lehmann 2014Slide7
Why do we analyse the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors?To judge about the future criticality of certain elements in the conceptual model and identify lever elements that may become more important in the future (increasing relevance)
To be able to focus on certain elements in the strategy development in order to achieve sustainable/ conservational goalsTo increase the awareness towards possible future trends that e.g. need to be kept or improved
12. Analysis of the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors7Slide8
How do we analyse the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors?Discussions and consensual decisions about the future criticality of each factor, threat and stress → how “dangerous” will this factor/ threat/ stress possibly be for the biodiversity object and its key ecological attributes?
12. Analysis of the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors8
© Pierre
Ibisch
2014
Based on: best-guess approach
→ no
empirically derived out-comes necessaryMost plausible (current) future scenariosThe judgement for future criti-cality does not imply a separate ranking of scope, severity, irreversibility (just as for past criticality), as it is done for current criticalitySlide9
How do we analyse the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors?Results are recorded in rating matrix of MARISCO cards as well as in an Excel spreadsheet
Rating categories for “Future criticality”:
12. Analysis of the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors9
© CEEM 2014
© CEEM 2014Slide10
Practical TipsThe participants should rate this aspect according to the current situation → They should imagine the future condition without any management or intervention from humans
→ It is supposed to show how dangerous a continuation of the present behaviour can be12. Analysis of the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors
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