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ARITHMETIC INCREASE METHOD ARITHMETIC INCREASE METHOD

ARITHMETIC INCREASE METHOD - PowerPoint Presentation

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ARITHMETIC INCREASE METHOD - PPT Presentation

Presented by Group 3 Members GUNGOOSINGH Sonali HUNG CHEONG LAN Kriss PIERRELOUIS Antoine QUATRE Rudolph RAMDAWOR Nitish INTRODUCTION Simple method of population forecasting Based on the results of at least two ID: 526311

method population 000 120 population method 120 000 time 860 yearpopulationchange19426019526565 519626363 present constant rate 23total 60average censuses 82012120120

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Slide1

ARITHMETIC INCREASE METHOD

Presented by Group 3Members:GUNGOOSINGH SonaliHUNG CHEONG LAN KrissPIERRE-LOUIS AntoineQUATRE RudolphRAMDAWOR NitishSlide2

INTRODUCTION

Simple method of population forecasting.Based on the results of at least two censuses.Results obtained from extrapolation of values from latest enumeration.Slide3

HOW METHOD WORKS?

Assumption : Present population density changes uniformly with time.Where P – population at any given time t

k – constant rate

 Slide4

Arithmetic Increase Method Equation:

WherePf – future population after time t (years)P

0 – present populationk – constant rate

 

HOW METHOD WORKS?Slide5

Population of Reduit

from following census figures:EXAMPLEYearPopulation (thousands)

1942

60

1952

65

1962

63

1972

72

1982

79

1992

89

2002

97

2012

120Slide6

EXAMPLE

YearPopulation

Change

1942

60

1952

65

65 – 60 = +5

1962

63

63 - 65 = -2

1972

72

72 – 63 = +9

1982

79

79 - 72 = +719928989 – 79 = +1020029797 – 89 = +82012120120 – 97 = +23Total+60Average (k/yr) = +0.8571

YearPopulationChange19426019526565 – 60 = +519626363 - 65 = -219727272 – 63 = +919827979 - 72 = +719928989 – 79 = +1020029797 – 89 = +82012120120 – 97 = +23Total+60Average (k/yr)Slide7

P0

= 120,000 k = +857.1 ≈ +860In 2022 : t = 10 Pf = 120,000 + (860 x 10) = 128,600In 2032 : t = 20 Pf = 120,000 + (860 x 20) = 137,200In 2035 : t = 23 Pf = 120,000 + (860

x 23) = 139,780 In 2042 : t = 30 P

f

= 120,000 + (

860

x

30) = 145,800

EXAMPLESlide8

Simplest method of extrapolation.

Valid if approximately equal incremental increases are noted in recent censuses.Method gives too low estimates with time. Used for short term estimates only, i.e. ≯ 30 yrsCan be applied to population of large cities.DISCUSSIONSlide9

THANK YOU!