Presented by Group 3 Members GUNGOOSINGH Sonali HUNG CHEONG LAN Kriss PIERRELOUIS Antoine QUATRE Rudolph RAMDAWOR Nitish INTRODUCTION Simple method of population forecasting Based on the results of at least two ID: 526311
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Slide1
ARITHMETIC INCREASE METHOD
Presented by Group 3Members:GUNGOOSINGH SonaliHUNG CHEONG LAN KrissPIERRE-LOUIS AntoineQUATRE RudolphRAMDAWOR NitishSlide2
INTRODUCTION
Simple method of population forecasting.Based on the results of at least two censuses.Results obtained from extrapolation of values from latest enumeration.Slide3
HOW METHOD WORKS?
Assumption : Present population density changes uniformly with time.Where P – population at any given time t
k – constant rate
Slide4
Arithmetic Increase Method Equation:
WherePf – future population after time t (years)P
0 – present populationk – constant rate
HOW METHOD WORKS?Slide5
Population of Reduit
from following census figures:EXAMPLEYearPopulation (thousands)
1942
60
1952
65
1962
63
1972
72
1982
79
1992
89
2002
97
2012
120Slide6
EXAMPLE
YearPopulation
Change
1942
60
1952
65
65 – 60 = +5
1962
63
63 - 65 = -2
1972
72
72 – 63 = +9
1982
79
79 - 72 = +719928989 – 79 = +1020029797 – 89 = +82012120120 – 97 = +23Total+60Average (k/yr) = +0.8571
YearPopulationChange19426019526565 – 60 = +519626363 - 65 = -219727272 – 63 = +919827979 - 72 = +719928989 – 79 = +1020029797 – 89 = +82012120120 – 97 = +23Total+60Average (k/yr)Slide7
P0
= 120,000 k = +857.1 ≈ +860In 2022 : t = 10 Pf = 120,000 + (860 x 10) = 128,600In 2032 : t = 20 Pf = 120,000 + (860 x 20) = 137,200In 2035 : t = 23 Pf = 120,000 + (860
x 23) = 139,780 In 2042 : t = 30 P
f
= 120,000 + (
860
x
30) = 145,800
EXAMPLESlide8
Simplest method of extrapolation.
Valid if approximately equal incremental increases are noted in recent censuses.Method gives too low estimates with time. Used for short term estimates only, i.e. ≯ 30 yrsCan be applied to population of large cities.DISCUSSIONSlide9
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