23032013 Incremental Increase Method 1 POPULATION FORECASTING Presented by Group 5 SEECHURN Ashivan ID no 1013779 BHOODHOO Pranesh Singh ID no 1016842 JUGGURNATH Bhuveenesh ID: 641189
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INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD
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Incremental Increase Method
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POPULATION FORECASTINGSlide2
Presented by Group 5:
SEECHURN Ashivan (ID no. 1013779)
BHOODHOO Pranesh Singh
(ID no. 1016842)
JUGGURNATH Bhuveenesh
(ID no. 1011316)
MUTTY Yagnesh (ID no. 1010926) GOOLAB Muhafeez Mohammad (ID no. 1012799)SEWDINE Deepin (ID no. 1012426)
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Incremental Increase Method
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Table of contents:
Introduction Factors affecting changes in population Population Forecasting Incremental Increase Method
Example
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IntroductionThe design of
waste water treatment plant and sanitation scheme is based on the projected population of a particular area, estimated for the design period. Any underestimated value will make the system inadequate for the intended purpose while overestimation will make it costly.As over the years the population of the area is ever changing, the system should be designed by considering of the population at the end of the design period.
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Factors affecting changes in population:
Birth rate (causes an increase) Death rate (causes a decrease)
Migration (causes either an increase or a decrease) Annexation (causes an increase)
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Population Forecasting
After collecting the present and past population record for the area (from census population records), the population at the end of design period can be predicted using various methods by considering the growth pattern of the concerned area.
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INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHODThis method is a modification of the arithmetical increase method and it is suitable for an average size town under normal condition where the growth rate is found to be in increasing order. While adopting this method the increase in increment is considered for calculating future population.
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INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD
The incremental increase is determined for each decade from the past population and the average value is added to the present population along with the average rate
of increase.Hence, population after nth decade is given by
Where
,
= Population after decade = Average increase = Incremental increase = Actual population 23/03/2013Incremental Increase Method8
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Example:
Predict the population for the year 2021, 2031, and 2041 from the following population data using the incremental increase method.23/03/2013
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YEAR
POPULATION
1961860,741
1971
989,726
1981
1,201,897
1991
1,689,890
2001
2,079,270
2011
2,601,071Slide10
SOLUTION
YEAR
POPULATION
INCREASE
(X)
INCREMENTAL INCREASE (Y)
1961860,741
-
-
1971
989,726
128,985
-
1981
1,201,897
212,171
+ 83,186
1991
1,689,890
484,993
+ 272,822
2001
2,079,270
389,380
- 95,613
2011
2,601,071
521,801
+ 132,421
TOTAL
1,737,330
273,816
AVERAGE
347,466
54,763
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For year 2021:
For year 2031:For year 2041:
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SOLUTION